Udinese vs Cremonese: Key Matchup in Serie A

On 17 May 2026, the lights of the Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Udine will frame a tense evening as Udinese welcome Cremonese for a match heavy with consequence: mid-table security and pride for the hosts, sheer survival for the visitors.

Season Context

Udinese arrive in this late-May fixture sitting 10th with 50 points from 36 matches, a picture of mid-table solidity backed by a near-balanced goal record of 45 scored and 46 conceded. Fourteen wins and eight draws have kept them comfortably clear of danger, and with two games left they are playing for a top-half finish and the satisfaction of closing a positive campaign in front of their own supporters.

Cremonese travel to Udine in deep trouble, 18th with 31 points from 36 matches and officially in the “Relegation - Serie B” zone. Seven wins and 10 draws have not been enough to offset 19 defeats, and a stark goal difference of 30 scored against 53 conceded underlines their vulnerability at this level. Every remaining point is precious as they fight to escape the bottom three.

Form & Momentum

Udinese’s recent form line of WWDLW speaks of a side finishing strongly (four wins in five). With 45 goals across 36 matches, they are averaging 1.25 goals per game in attack, while conceding 1.28 per game (46 in 36) keeps them competitive in most contests. That blend of steady scoring and broadly resilient defending makes them a difficult opponent at this stage of the year.

Cremonese come in with the more fragile sequence WLLDL, a run that highlights inconsistency (three defeats in five) at precisely the wrong time. Their attack has struggled all year at 0.83 goals per game (30 in 36), and a porous defence conceding 1.47 per match (53 in 36) has repeatedly undermined their efforts. The contrast with Udinese’s sharper recent momentum is stark (Udinese last-five form index 67% vs Cremonese 27%).

Head-to-Head Patterns

The recent history between these sides leans towards Udinese, though Cremonese have shown they can compete. On 20 October 2025, the teams shared a 1-1 draw at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A (Serie A, season 2025, October 2025), with Cremonese as hosts and Udinese taking a point on the road.

Udinese enjoyed a commanding home victory on 23 April 2023, beating Cremonese 3-0 at Dacia Arena in Serie A (Serie A, season 2022, April 2023), a result that underlined the gap in quality when Udinese find their rhythm in Udine. Earlier that campaign, on 30 October 2022, the sides fought out a 0-0 stalemate at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A (Serie A, season 2022, October 2022), a tight contest where defences were on top.

Tactical Preview

Udinese’s statistical profile points towards a side comfortable in flexible back-three systems. They have most often lined up in a 3-5-2 (18 matches) and 3-4-2-1 (8 matches), with occasional switches to a 4-4-2. That structure supports a balanced game: 45 goals scored and 46 conceded over 36 matches, plus 11 clean sheets, show a team that can both build attacks and manage games when in front. The wing-backs are key to providing width, while the central block protects a defence that concedes a manageable 1.28 goals per game.

In the final third, Udinese lean heavily on the quality of K. Davis, an attacker with 10 league goals and 4 assists, who combines penalty-box presence (37 shots, 24 on target) with link play (364 passes at 77% accuracy). Around him, N. Zaniolo’s creativity from midfield is crucial: 5 goals, 6 assists, and 53 key passes make him the main conduit between midfield and attack. Zaniolo’s high involvement in duels (375 total) and dribbles (94 attempted, 33 successful) indicates Udinese’s willingness to let him carry the ball through lines.

Cremonese, by contrast, are built around a hard-working 3-5-2 of their own (24 matches in that shape), occasionally shifting to 4-4-2 or 3-1-4-2 in search of balance. Their problem is efficiency: just 30 goals in 36 matches (0.83 per game) despite a decent creative platform. F. Bonazzoli is the main attacking reference with 9 goals and 1 assist, backed by 54 shots (30 on target) and strong hold-up play (235 duels, 120 won). He will need support from wide and midfield zones to trouble an Udinese defence with 11 clean sheets.

In midfield, J. Vandeputte is Cremonese’s key playmaker, with 5 assists and 53 key passes, mirroring Zaniolo’s creative numbers but in a more struggling side. His 887 passes at 77% accuracy and 37 tackles underline his dual role as both creator and worker. Defensively, G. Pezzella stands out for his aggression: 48 tackles, 11 blocks, 11 interceptions and a disciplinary record of 8 yellow cards and one red card show a combative presence who must manage his temperament in such a high-stakes match.

Both teams are comfortable in three-at-the-back structures, so the flanks and the battle between the wing-backs and creative midfielders should define the game. Udinese’s superior last-five indices (attack 56%, defence 78%) and more secure league position suggest they can impose their tempo, while Cremonese may lean on direct play into Bonazzoli and set pieces to compensate for their lower attacking output (last-five attack index 22%).

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: Serie A, season 2025 — 17 May 2026.
• Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udine.
• Prediction: Win or draw — Double chance : Udinese or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 50% / Draw 50% / Away 0%.
• Model: Udinese 71.2% — Cremonese 28.8%.

Betting Verdict

The predictive model clearly tilts towards the hosts, with Udinese favoured on overall metrics (71.2% vs 28.8%) and supported by stronger recent form (WWDLW vs WLLDL) and a better last-five performance index (67% vs 27%). Head-to-head results in Serie A also lean Udinese’s way, particularly the 3-0 win in Udine in April 2023, while Cremonese’s season-long defensive record is worrying (53 goals conceded in 36 matches).

With most bookmakers pricing the home win around 2.30–2.50 and the draw roughly in the low 3.20–3.40 range, the model-backed “Double chance : Udinese or draw” looks a logical, relatively conservative angle, especially given Cremonese’s low scoring rate (0.83 goals per game). For those seeking value, the combination of Udinese’s attacking leaders K. Davis and N. Zaniolo against a fragile Cremonese back line suggests the hosts are more likely to avoid defeat than not, in line with the prediction of “Win or draw”.