Atalanta host Udinese at New Balance Arena in Bergamo on 7 March 2026 in Serie A’s regular round 28. Atalanta sit 7th on 45 points, Udinese 10th on 35. The model gives both Atalanta and the draw roughly the same chance (around mid‑40s percent each), with Udinese down at about one in ten, underpinning a strong “home or draw” expectation rather than a clear-cut home banker.
Atalanta’s underlying numbers at home are solid: 8 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses with 22 scored and 11 conceded, averaging 1.6 scored and 0.8 allowed. Across the season they concede under a goal per game and have 10 clean sheets, pointing to a controlled, low‑risk style. Their recent five‑match run (7 scored, 4 conceded) supports a likely narrow margin rather than a rout. Udinese away are much more volatile: 5 wins but 7 defeats, with 15 scored and 21 conceded (1.2 for, 1.6 against). They can score, but they leak heavily.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head in the league is slightly tilted Atalanta’s way, especially in Bergamo: recent home meetings ended 2‑1 and 2‑0 to Atalanta, although Udinese did win 1‑0 at home in November 2025, so the visitors have shown they can trouble them. Keinan Davis is a major attacking threat for Udinese with 8 league goals and 4 penalties scored from 4, while Nikola Krstović is both top scorer and top assister for Atalanta (7 goals, 4 assists), underlining his importance as their main attacking reference.
Injuries
Injuries matter: Atalanta are definitely without C. De Ketelaere, and have several key names (Ederson, G. Raspadori, G. Scalvini) listed as doubtful, which slightly reduces their attacking ceiling. Udinese miss multiple defensive pieces (N. Bertola, O. Solet, A. Zanoli), weakening an already porous back line.
The official advice is “Double chance: Atalanta or draw”, and that aligns with both data and prices. Atalanta’s win is generally between 1.57 and 1.74, the draw 3.47–3.95, Udinese 4.52–5.80. The best value angle is to follow the model: Double Chance Atalanta or Draw (parlay builders), with a correct score lean towards a controlled 2‑1 home win, consistent with Atalanta’s home scoring rate and Udinese’s away defensive record.
