The game at MHPArena in Stuttgart comes in Round 20 of the 2025 Bundesliga season. Stuttgart sit 5th on 36 points, firmly in the European race, while Freiburg are 7th on 27 points and chasing the pack above. Recent head‑to‑head meetings have been evenly balanced: across the last five league clashes, Stuttgart have three wins and Freiburg two, with both sides enjoying big home victories.
Team Analysis
Form points to Stuttgart. They are unbeaten in five league matches (WDWWD) and have 11 wins from 19 overall. At home they are solid: 6 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat, with 13 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their goals-for average at home (1.4) against Freiburg’s away goals-against average (2.1) suggests the hosts are well placed to score at least twice. Defensively, Stuttgart concede 1.2 per home game, which is reasonable rather than watertight.
Key attacking pieces are available. Top scorer Deniz Undav (11 league goals, 2 assists) is not listed as injured, and creators Jamie Leweling (5 assists, 4 goals) and Angelo Stiller (4 assists) give Stuttgart a strong offensive spine. Injuries to L. Jovanovic, T. Tomas and D. Zagadou slightly thin the squad, but do not remove their main threats.
Freiburg’s recent form (WDLWW) is also positive, yet their away profile is mixed: 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 13 scored and 21 conceded. They average 1.3 goals for but ship 2.1 per game on the road, underlining a leaky defence, especially after half-time (12 goals conceded between minutes 46–60). Missing defender P. Lienhart weakens the back line further, while D. Kyereh is also out and L. Kübler is questionable. Freiburg do carry offensive danger, averaging 1.6 goals overall, and have kept three away clean sheets, but their inconsistency outside Freiburg is clear.
Odds & Betting Angle
On the balance of form and stats, odds markets are likely to position Stuttgart as clear favourites, roughly in the 1.70–1.85 range, with Freiburg as underdogs around 4.00–4.50 and the draw near 3.6–3.8. The scoring profiles (Stuttgart 1.4 home GF vs Freiburg 2.1 GA away; Freiburg 1.3 GF away vs Stuttgart 1.2 GA home) point strongly towards goals at both ends and a higher‑scoring game. That supports markets such as Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score being priced relatively short, while a Stuttgart win combined with Over 1.5 goals would likely offer a more attractive, but still data‑backed, option.
The Verdict & Score
History slightly favours Stuttgart at home, form clearly does, and the statistical matchup of their attack against Freiburg’s away defence is decisive. We predict Stuttgart to control the game but allow chances. A 2–1 home win looks the most probable outcome, with Undav central to the hosts’ threat and Freiburg contributing to an entertaining, attacking contest.
