The MHPArena braces itself for a European-chasing showdown on 1 February as VfB Stuttgart host SC Freiburg in a clash that could reshape the Bundesliga’s top‑seven picture. Stuttgart sit 5th on 36 points, nine clear of Freiburg in 7th, and with the home side eyeing a sustained push for UEFA Europa League – or even Champions League – contention, this is the sort of match they simply cannot afford to let slip.
Both teams arrive in solid spirits. Stuttgart’s recent league form of WDWWD underlines a side that has rediscovered its consistency after a patchy spell, while Freiburg’s WDLWW sequence suggests Christian Streich’s men are quietly building momentum of their own. With only ten points separating 5th from 7th and the business end of the season looming, this encounter feels less like a routine regular-season date and more like a statement game for two clubs determined to stay in the European conversation.
Form Guide & Season Trends
Stuttgart’s season has been built on a blend of attacking verve and a quietly improving defensive structure. Eleven wins from 19 matches, with 36 goals scored, underline their threat going forward: an average of 1.9 goals per game. At home, the MHPArena has largely been a stronghold – six wins, two draws and just one defeat from nine outings. While they do not blow teams away in Stuttgart (13 home goals, a modest 1.4 per match), they tend to manage games well, conceding 11 and keeping four clean sheets overall this season.
Their scoring pattern is revealing: Stuttgart are especially dangerous either side of half-time and late in games. Ten goals between minutes 31–45 and another ten in the 76–90 range show a side that can both seize control before the break and finish strongly. The flip side is a vulnerability late on, with 42% of their goals conceded coming in the final quarter-hour – a warning sign if they allow Freiburg to hang around.
Freiburg, by contrast, have been a different beast home and away. At the Europa-Park Stadion they are robust and efficient; on the road, far less so. Only two away wins from ten, alongside three draws and five defeats, with 13 goals scored and 21 conceded, paint the picture of a team that can be too open once they leave their own turf. An average of 2.1 goals conceded per away match is a concern heading into a stadium where Stuttgart rarely fail to create chances.
Yet Freiburg’s season numbers also show why they remain dangerous. They have 31 league goals, and they start and restart halves with real intensity: seven goals in the opening 15 minutes and another seven between 46–60. If Stuttgart’s concentration dips early in either half, Freiburg have the tools to punish them. However, the Black Forest club’s Achilles heel is the period just after the break, where they have conceded a huge 12 goals between minutes 46–60 – an area Stuttgart’s energetic press and transitions will look to exploit.
Overall, this is a clash between a more balanced, upward-trending home side and an away team that can thrill and frustrate in equal measure.
Head-to-Head History
Recent meetings between these two have rarely been dull and have often been decisive. The last five Bundesliga clashes tell a story of ebb and flow rather than outright dominance.
Earlier this season, Freiburg claimed a 3–1 home win, turning a 0–1 half-time deficit into a second-half surge – a reminder of their capacity to flip a game’s narrative. But Stuttgart will draw confidence from their last two home encounters: a 4–0 demolition in January 2025 at the MHPArena and an emphatic 5–0 win back in September 2023. On their own patch, VfB have not just beaten Freiburg; they have overwhelmed them.
The pattern across the five most recent league meetings is clear: goals, and plenty of them. Scorelines of 3–1, 4–0, 3–1, 3–1 and 5–0 suggest this is a matchup that tends to open up once the first strike lands. Both sides have produced multi-goal performances against the other, and tactical caution often gives way to chaos in transition and set-piece drama.
For Stuttgart, the memory of a 3–1 away win in February 2024 and those two home routs will reinforce the belief that they can impose their attacking game on Freiburg again. For Freiburg, that comeback in September 2025 – turning 0–1 into 3–1 – will serve as proof that they can weather Stuttgart’s early storms and then strike back hard.
Supporters heading to the MHPArena have every reason to expect another high-tempo, chance-laden encounter.
Team News & Key Men
Both managers have selection headaches, but also match-winners in form. Stuttgart’s biggest weapon is undoubtedly Deniz Undav. The German attacker has been one of the Bundesliga’s standout performers this season, with 11 goals and 2 assists in just 15 appearances. His numbers speak to a player who marries efficiency with volume: 48 shots, half of them on target, and a rating that reflects his importance not just as a finisher but as a link player, with 18 key passes to his name.
With Stuttgart often lining up in a 4-2-3-1, Undav’s movement between the lines and in the box will be central to breaking open a Freiburg defence that has already shipped 21 goals away from home. His ability to drop off, combine, and then arrive late in scoring positions could be particularly damaging against a back line that struggles in the first 15 minutes after the interval.
In terms of absences, Stuttgart are not at full strength. L. Jovanovic is out with a back injury, while T. Tomas and D. Zagadou both miss out due to muscle problems. Zagadou’s absence removes a physical defensive option, which could test Stuttgart’s depth at the back, especially against Freiburg’s aerial and set-piece threat.
Freiburg, meanwhile, will be without D. Kyereh, still lacking match fitness, and key defender P. Lienhart, sidelined by an abdominal strain. Lienhart’s absence is particularly worrying given Freiburg’s already fragile away defensive record. L. Kübler is listed as questionable, adding further uncertainty to Streich’s defensive planning.
Without detailed top-scorer data for Freiburg in this context, the collective becomes their star: a team that spreads goals across the side, strikes early in halves, and can be ruthless on the counter. But they will need someone to step up as the focal point in Stuttgart if they are to keep pace with Undav’s output.
The Verdict
All signs point to a fast, attacking contest with momentum swings and chances at both ends. Stuttgart’s strong home form, superior goal difference and more balanced season suggest they enter as deserved favourites, especially against a Freiburg side that concedes heavily on the road and has key defensive absences.
Freiburg’s habit of starting halves quickly means Stuttgart cannot afford complacency, but over 90 minutes the hosts’ attacking quality and recent dominance at the MHPArena in this matchup hint that VfB Stuttgart are more likely to edge a high-energy, entertaining clash – perhaps with Deniz Undav once again at the heart of the story.
