Played at Reale Arena in San Sebastian, this is a preview of a high‑leverage La Liga fixture in the 2025 regular season, round 31. In the league phase, Real Sociedad sit 7th with 41 points from 30 matches, goal difference +1. Alaves are 15th with 32 points and a goal difference of -11. With eight league games left, this match can significantly reshape both Real Sociedad’s European qualification chances and Alaves’ battle to stay clear of the bottom three.
The first leg and H2H
The most recent meeting was in the Copa del Rey quarter‑finals in Vitoria‑Gasteiz, where Alaves hosted. Alaves led 2‑1 at half time and Real Sociedad won 3‑2 in the end, so Real Sociedad were the winners. That cup tie matters psychologically: Alaves had control early but could not manage the game, while Real Sociedad proved they can overturn a deficit away from home.
In the league phase in 2025, the sides met at Estadio Mendizorrotza in round 15, where Alaves won 1‑0 after leading 1‑0 at the break. In the 2024 league edition, Alaves also beat Real Sociedad 1‑0 at home and 2‑1 away at Reale Arena, and in a 2024 friendly Alaves advanced on penalties after a 1‑1 draw. Across this atomic five‑match H2H set (three league games, one cup tie, one friendly), Alaves have three regulation‑time wins, Real Sociedad have one, and there has been one draw decided on penalties in favour of Alaves. That pattern underlines that, despite the league table, Alaves have repeatedly found ways to hurt Real Sociedad.
The global picture: league phase vs all phases
In the league phase, Real Sociedad’s profile is clear: 11 wins, 8 draws, 11 losses, with 46 goals scored and 45 conceded across 30 matches. At home they are much stronger: 8 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats from 15, with 29 goals for and 21 against. Across all phases of the competition, those same numbers are repeated, but the detailed minute‑by‑minute data sharpen the picture: Real Sociedad average 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per home match, with scoring spikes between minutes 31‑45, 46‑60 and 76‑90. They concede heavily late, with 25.00% of goals against between 76‑90.
Alaves, in the league phase, have 8 wins, 8 draws and 14 defeats from 30, with 32 goals scored and 43 conceded. Away, they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses, scoring 13 and conceding 25 in 15 games. Across all phases of the competition, they average only 0.9 goals for and 1.7 against away from home, and have failed to score in 7 of 15 away matches. That low away output contrasts sharply with their strong H2H record, suggesting their success against Real Sociedad has been somewhat opponent‑specific rather than a general away strength.
Seasonal impact for Real Sociedad
In the league phase, Real Sociedad are four points off a typical top‑four pace and tightly packed in the race for European places. A home win would take them to 44 points, consolidating 7th and potentially closing the gap on the clubs ahead. Given their home record of 8 wins from 15, failing to beat a bottom‑half side with a -11 goal difference would be a major missed opportunity.
A draw (moving to 42 points) would extend their inconsistent pattern (WLWLW form) and keep them vulnerable to being overtaken by teams just below. A defeat would be more damaging: they would remain on 41, potentially drop into mid‑table traffic, and lose further ground on European qualification. Psychologically, another home loss to an opponent that already beat them 2‑1 at this venue in 2024 would reinforce a negative matchup narrative and increase pressure in the run‑in.
Seasonal impact for Alaves
For Alaves, the immediate concern is staying clear of the relegation line. With 32 points and a -11 goal difference in the league phase, they are within one bad week of being dragged into the bottom three. An away win at Reale Arena would lift them to 35 points, give them a fourth away victory, and crucially build a buffer that could allow more conservative game plans in tougher fixtures ahead.
Even a draw (33 points) would be valuable given their 3‑2‑10 away record; every point away from home reduces the pressure on their remaining home games, where they are comparatively solid (5‑6‑4, 19 goals for, 18 against). A defeat, however, keeps them on 32, leaves their away record at 3‑2‑11, and maintains a trend of conceding heavily on the road. With only three clean sheets across all phases and a tendency to allow 1.7 goals per away match, another loss would underline structural defensive issues that could be punished in the decisive final weeks.
Verdict
Real Sociedad enter as the stronger side in the league phase and at home, but Alaves’ recent H2H dominance makes this a pivotal test of Real Sociedad’s European ambitions. A home win keeps continental qualification firmly alive; anything less hands Alaves another psychological edge and keeps them stuck in mid‑table. For Alaves, a positive result would be a major step toward safety and confirmation that their specific game plan against Real Sociedad can translate into survival‑defining points away from home.
