Portugal begins Nations League title defense against Wales
Portugal’s grip on the UEFA Nations League trophy comes under its first examination on Thursday night, and the setting could hardly be more familiar: at home, under expectation, with Cristiano Ronaldo once again at the heart of the story.
The defending champions open their 2026-27 campaign against Wales, stepping into a new chapter under Jorge Jesus but still leaning on the old guarantees that have carried them to two titles in this competition, in 2019 and 2025.
New boss, same ambition
Jorge Jesus took the reins on July 10, inheriting a side bruised but not broken by the 2026 World Cup. Roberto Martinez’s tenure ended with a jolt in the last 16, a 1-0 defeat to eventual champions Spain – Portugal’s first loss since November 2025.
That setback has not dulled the pedigree of a team that has made this tournament its own. Portugal won the inaugural Nations League in 2018-19, edging Netherlands 1-0 in the final, then held their nerve from the spot to beat Spain in the 2024-25 showpiece.
Now they sit in Group 4 of League A, alongside Wales, Denmark and Norway, with home-and-away clashes deciding who reaches the quarter-finals. This opener is followed by a trip to Norway before October brings Denmark away and Norway at home. It is a demanding schedule, but one that suits a squad built for tournament football.
Ronaldo, 41, still leading the line
The headline is impossible to ignore. Jesus named Cristiano Ronaldo in his first squad, and the 41-year-old is expected to start, chasing yet more goals to add to his extraordinary haul of 146 for his country.
His international future looked in serious doubt after that World Cup exit to Spain. It has not ended. Instead, he walks back into a starting XI that should hold few surprises.
Diogo Costa is set to keep goal, with Joao Cancelo, Ruben Dias, Antonio Silva Veiga and Nuno Mendes likely forming the defensive line. In midfield, Vitinha, Joao Neves and Bruno Fernandes give Jesus a blend of control, energy and creativity that few nations can match.
Ahead of them, Pedro Neto and Joao Felix are expected to support Ronaldo, whose presence still shapes the way Portugal attack, even in the autumn of his career.
Probable Portugal XI: Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, J Neves; Neto, Fernandes, Felix; Ronaldo.
Wales back at the top table, but stretched
For Wales, the road to Lisbon has been far more turbulent.
Craig Bellamy’s side missed out on the 2026 World Cup, falling to Bosnia-Herzegovina in the playoff semi-finals in March. Since then, they have been trying to reset: draws against Northern Ireland and Ghana in friendlies offered some stability, but a 2-1 defeat to Romania last time out underlined how fragile the rebuild remains.
The Dragons have at least earned their way back into League A, promotion from League B in 2024-25 confirming they belong among Europe’s elite on merit. Their overall Nations League record – 10 wins, five draws and seven defeats from 22 matches – reflects a team that can punch up, but not always consistently.
This campaign does not ease them in gently. After Portugal away, Wales travel to Denmark on September 27, then host Norway on October 1 and Denmark again on October 4. It is a brutal run for a squad already stretched.
Injury blows and thin margins
The task in Portugal has become even harder.
Wales have been hit by a triple injury blow, with Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead and Karl Darlow all withdrawing from the squad. In response, Bellamy has called up David Cornell of Leicester City, Joe Taylor of Huddersfield Town and Charlie Savage of Reading.
They join an already depleted group. Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies are also unavailable, stripping Wales of depth and experience in key areas.
The attacking burden will fall heavily on Daniel James, David Brooks and Brennan Johnson. All three are expected to start, with James potentially operating through the middle, a role that demands both relentless running and ruthless decision-making on the counter.
Probable Wales XI: Ward; N Williams, Cabango, Norrington-Davies, Dasilva; Ampadu, J James; Brooks, Thomas, Johnson; D James.
History leans one way
These two nations have met only four times. Wales have just one win, a friendly back in May 1951. The only competitive clash came on one of Portugal’s great nights: the Euro 2016 semi-final, when goals from Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani sealed a 2-0 victory and sent Portugal to a final they would go on to win.
The form lines do not help the visitors much either. Portugal’s recent record across all competitions reads WDWDWL, that solitary defeat coming against Spain at the World Cup. Wales arrive with a more uneven sequence: WWLDDL.
Prediction
Wales will not lack spirit. They rarely do. But they arrive in Lisbon without several important players, facing a Portugal side loaded with quality and eager to impress a new head coach.
The champions usually treat the Nations League as a serious prize, not a distraction. With Ronaldo still hunting goals, Bruno Fernandes dictating in midfield and home advantage on their side, Portugal look well placed to start with a statement.
Portugal 3-1 Wales feels a fair measure of the gap right now. The real question is whether this is the start of another Portuguese march through the Nations League – and how long Ronaldo can keep bending the story his way.
