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Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction and Betting Tips

Portland Thorns W welcome Chicago Red Stars W to Providence Park on 13 September 2026 in NWSL Women Group Stage action, with the two clubs arriving at opposite ends of the table and in starkly contrasting form. Portland are firmly in the playoff picture, sitting 6th with 38 points from 23 matches, while Chicago are bottom in 16th on just 16 points and a -40 goal difference.

For Portland, this is a chance to consolidate their push towards the NWSL Women Play Offs Quarter-finals, building on a strong home record and one of the league’s more potent attacks. Chicago, by contrast, are fighting to restore pride and stability after a season marked by defensive frailty and a chronic lack of goals. With such a gulf in both standings and underlying numbers, this fixture profiles as one of the most lopsided on the Group Stage slate, but the recent head-to-head history shows the Red Stars have occasionally found a way to frustrate the Thorns.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Key Stats

  • Portland Thorns W are 6th with 38 points and a +5 goal difference (37 scored, 32 conceded) from 23 matches; Chicago Red Stars W are 16th with 16 points and a -40 goal difference (13 scored, 53 conceded).
  • In their most recent meeting on 3 May 2026, Portland Thorns W beat Chicago Red Stars W 2-0 away in NWSL Women Group Stage action.
  • Season statistics show Portland averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Chicago average just 0.6 scored and 2.3 conceded across 23 fixtures.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 6 vs 16
  • Points: 38 vs 16
  • Goals For: 37 vs 13
  • Goals Against: 32 vs 53
  • Clean Sheets: Portland Thorns W 9; Chicago Red Stars W 3 (season statistics)

Standings underline the scale of the gap. Portland have turned 11 wins and 5 draws from 23 matches into a solid 38-point haul, powered by a 37-goal attack. Their home form is particularly impressive: 7 wins, 3 draws and just 1 defeat at Providence Park, with 20 goals scored and only 7 conceded. That home defensive record — 0.6 goals against per game — is elite by NWSL standards.

Chicago, meanwhile, have endured a brutal campaign. With 5 wins, 1 draw and 17 defeats from 23 matches, their -40 goal difference is the worst in the league. They have scored just 13 times (0.6 per game) and conceded 53 (2.3 per game). Away from home, the numbers are even more alarming: 1 win and 11 losses, 3 goals scored and 31 conceded. On paper, this is a classic contender vs struggler matchup.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Key Matchups

S. Smith vs Chicago back line

S. Smith has been one of the standout forwards in NWSL Women this season. For Portland, she has 10 goals and 1 assist in 23 appearances, with 60 shots and 37 on target, reflecting both volume and accuracy. She also contributes 27 key passes and has converted 3 penalties from 3, underlining her reliability from the spot. Against a Chicago defence conceding 2.6 goals per game away and 53 overall, Smith’s movement and finishing look primed to cause major problems, especially with Portland averaging 1.8 goals per game at home.

P. Tordin vs Chicago midfield

P. Tordin is the creative heartbeat for Portland Thorns W. Across 23 appearances and 1,648 minutes, she has 6 goals and 7 assists, with 36 key passes and 385 completed passes at 71% accuracy. Her duel numbers (206 contested, 100 won) show she can handle the physical side, while 50 dribble attempts with 22 successes highlight her ability to break lines. Up against a Chicago midfield that allows 2.3 goals per match and struggles to control games, Tordin’s capacity to link play and create chances could tilt the contest heavily in Portland’s favour.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have met regularly in recent NWSL seasons, with Portland generally having the upper hand but Chicago occasionally springing surprises, especially away from home. Recent clashes have often featured multiple goals and decisive spells of Thorns pressure.

  • 3 May 2026: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women Group Stage)
  • 14 September 2025: Chicago Red Stars W 1-1 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women Regular Season - 20)
  • 22 June 2025: Portland Thorns W 1-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women Regular Season - 13)
  • 14 September 2024: Portland Thorns W 0-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women Regular Season - 15)
  • 27 April 2024: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women Regular Season - 5)

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction

All indicators point strongly towards a Portland Thorns W victory. The prediction models make Portland the clear winner, with a 50 out of 100 chance assigned to a home win and 50 out of 100 to the draw, while Chicago are given effectively no chance of victory (0 out of 100). The comparison indices are equally emphatic: form, attack, defence, goals and overall total all lean heavily towards Portland.

Portland’s home defensive record (7 goals conceded in 11 matches) matches up against a Chicago attack that averages just 0.3 goals per game away and has failed to score in 16 of 23 outings overall. At the other end, Portland’s 1.8 goals per game at home and the presence of in-form attackers like S. Smith, O. Moultrie (5 goals, 4 assists) and P. Tordin suggest they will create plenty of chances. Chicago’s recent last-five record — conceding 20 goals in 5 matches (4 per game) — underlines the risk of another heavy defeat.

Predicted Score: Portland Thorns W 2-0 Chicago Red Stars W

Portland Thorns W Recent Form

Portland’s recent form is strong. Their standings run of LDWWW shows a team that has quickly corrected a brief wobble, with three straight wins following one draw and one defeat. Season-long statistics reinforce that consistency: 11 wins from 23, only 2 matches without scoring, and 9 clean sheets. Their last five performance index (67 for form, 53 attack, 59 defence) suggests a side trending positively at the right time.

Chicago Red Stars W Recent Form

Chicago arrive in far poorer shape. Their standings form string LLWLL reflects four defeats in their last five, with only one win breaking up a sequence of losses. Over the season, they have failed to score in 16 of 23 matches and conceded 4 goals per game across their last five fixtures. Their last-five indices (20 form, 24 attack, 0 defence) capture the depth of their struggles, particularly at the back.

Portland Thorns W Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Arnold; Defenders: S. Hiatt, M. Müller, J. Perry, R. Reyes; Midfielders: J. Fleming, C. Bogere, O. Moultrie, P. Tordin; Forwards: S. Smith, D. Castellanos.

Portland have a deep and balanced squad. At the back, players like J. Perry and R. Reyes bring defensive aggression and passing ability, while C. Bogere adds ball-winning in midfield. Creativity and end product come from O. Moultrie and P. Tordin between the lines, feeding the finishing of S. Smith and D. Castellanos. Season statistics indicate Portland are comfortable in a 4-2-3-1 shape, used in 17 matches, which allows them to dominate possession and create high-quality chances while maintaining a solid defensive block.

Chicago Red Stars W Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Naeher; Defenders: S. Staab, Leila Ouahabi, T. Malham, A. Farmer; Midfielders: J. Grosso, Maitane López, B. Pinto; Forwards: M. Swanson, J. Huitema, M. Alozie.

Chicago have several experienced names, particularly in goal with A. Naeher and in defence with S. Staab and Leila Ouahabi. In midfield, players like Maitane López and B. Pinto can offer control, while the forward line of M. Swanson, J. Huitema and M. Alozie has the potential to threaten in transition. However, season-long numbers — only 13 goals scored and 16 matches without a goal — suggest the collective attacking structure has not clicked, and the back line has been exposed too often, especially away from home.

Portland Thorns W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Chicago Red Stars W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Portland Thorns W:

  • None reported.

Chicago Red Stars W:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W

Exactly 3 distinct betting ideas, drawn from different markets and grounded in current form, head-to-head trends and available odds.

  • Result Tip: Back Portland Thorns W to win. The prediction models give Portland a 50 out of 100 chance of victory with Chicago at 0, and bookmakers have the home side as overwhelming favourites. Home odds range from 1.17 to 1.24, implying an approximate probability between 80.6% (1 ÷ 1.24 × 100) and 85.5% (1 ÷ 1.17 × 100). Given Portland’s dominant home record (7-3-1) and Chicago’s 1-0-11 away record, a home win is the logical play.
  • Goals Tip: Portland Thorns W to win to nil. Chicago average just 0.3 goals per game away and have failed to score in 16 of 23 matches, while Portland concede only 0.6 per game at home and have 9 clean sheets overall. Exact odds for this market are not listed, but it should be priced higher than the straight home win and offers a strong statistical angle.
  • Value Tip: S. Smith to score anytime. With 10 goals in 23 appearances, 37 shots on target and perfect penalty conversion (3 scored from 3), Smith is Portland’s primary goal threat against the league’s leakiest defence (53 conceded). While specific player odds are not provided, her scoring profile versus Chicago’s defensive record suggests she will be a key focal point for value in goalscorer markets.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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