Portland Thorns W vs Houston Dash W Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips
Portland Thorns W welcome Houston Dash W to Providence Park on 27 September 2026 in a key NWSL Women Group Stage clash with major implications at both ends of the table. The hosts are pushing to consolidate a top playoff seed, while the visitors are trying to drag themselves away from the bottom of the standings.
Portland sit 5th with 42 points from 25 matches, firmly in the mix for the NWSL Women Play Offs Quarter-finals. Their strong home record at Providence Park – just 1 defeat in 12 – makes this a crucial opportunity to bank another three points. Houston, by contrast, are 12th on 29 points, with a negative goal difference and only 3 away wins in 13 attempts, and they need a late surge to avoid finishing rooted near the foot of the table.
With Portland Thorns W vs Houston Dash W prediction, H2H trends and betting tips all pointing towards a home-favoured encounter, this fixture shapes as another test of whether the Dash can upset one of the league’s most potent attacking units on their own turf.
Portland Thorns W vs Houston Dash W Key Stats
- Portland Thorns W are 5th with 42 points and a +8 goal difference (42 scored, 34 conceded) from 25 matches; Houston Dash W are 12th with 29 points and a -4 goal difference (31 scored, 35 conceded).
- In their last five NWSL Women meetings (from 18 May 2024 to 2 November 2025), Portland Thorns W have won four times, with Houston Dash W taking just one victory.
- Season statistics show Portland averaging 1.7 goals scored per match and keeping 9 clean sheets, while Houston average 1.2 goals scored and have 5 clean sheets across 25 games.
Portland Thorns W vs Houston Dash W — Tale of the Tape
- Position: 5 vs 12
- Points: 42 vs 29
- Goals For: 42 vs 31
- Goals Against: 34 vs 35
- Clean Sheets: 9 vs 5
Across 25 matches, Portland Thorns W have built a solid campaign: 12 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats, with 42 goals scored and 34 conceded. Their home form is particularly impressive, with 7 wins and 4 draws from 12 at Providence Park, scoring 21 and conceding only 8. That defensive solidity at home underpins their push for the play-offs.
Houston Dash W, meanwhile, have endured an inconsistent season. With 8 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses, they sit 12th and have struggled badly on the road: just 3 away wins in 13, with 12 goals scored and 21 conceded. While their overall goals against (35 in 25) is similar to Portland’s, their attack is notably less productive, and their away record highlights why they are under pressure near the bottom.
Portland Thorns W vs Houston Dash W Key Matchups
S. Smith vs K. Rader
Sophia Smith is the standout attacking threat in this fixture. For Portland Thorns W, she has 11 goals and 3 assists in 25 appearances, with 75 shots and 44 on target, underlining her volume and accuracy. Her rating of 7.26 across 1,774 minutes and a strong dribbling profile (64 attempts, 31 successful) make her a constant menace in the final third, and she has also converted 4 penalties from 4.
For Houston Dash W, K. Rader has been a key attacking midfielder, contributing 8 goals and 1 assist in 25 appearances. She has 40 shots with 25 on target and a rating of 7.09 over 1,772 minutes, plus 2 penalties scored. While Rader is influential in linking play – 570 passes with 29 key passes and 77% accuracy – she faces a tougher task away from home against a defence that concedes just 0.7 goals per game at Providence Park.
P. Tordin vs Avery Patterson
Portland’s creative fulcrum P. Tordin is central to their attacking structure. Across 25 appearances and 1,823 minutes, she has 6 goals and 7 assists, with 38 shots (15 on target) and 41 key passes from 427 total passes at 72% accuracy. Her 7.03 rating and strong duel numbers (222 duels, 107 won) show her influence both on and off the ball.
Houston defender Avery Patterson will be one of the primary players tasked with containing Portland’s wide and central threats. She has played 1,771 minutes across 23 appearances, with 51 tackles, 6 blocks and 24 interceptions, plus 197 duels with 112 won. However, her aggressive style is reflected in 7 yellow cards, which could be a risk against the movement and dribbling of players like Tordin and Smith. If Patterson cannot stay on the right side of the referee, Portland’s forwards may find even more space to exploit.
Head-to-Head: Last Meetings
Recent head-to-head meetings strongly favour Portland, especially at Providence Park, where the Thorns have regularly found goals against the Dash. Houston’s rare successes have mostly come in tight contests, but the overall pattern points to Portland dominance.
- 2 November 2025: Portland Thorns W 2-0 Houston Dash W (NWSL Women)
- 17 May 2025: Houston Dash W 1-4 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)
- 18 May 2024: Houston Dash W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)
- 21 April 2024: Portland Thorns W 4-1 Houston Dash W (NWSL Women)
- 13 May 2023: Houston Dash W 2-1 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)
Portland Thorns W vs Houston Dash W Prediction
Stats suggest a match tilted towards Portland Thorns W, but not without some jeopardy. The comparison model heavily favours Portland across form, attack and goals, and the head-to-head index is also strongly in their favour. Portland’s last five league games show 8 goals scored and 5 conceded, while Houston have managed just 3 goals and conceded 7 in the same span.
Prediction probabilities indicate a 45% chance of a Portland win, 45% for a draw and only 10% for a Houston victory. That aligns with the market view, where Portland are a short-priced home favourite. Given Portland’s strong home defence, Houston’s modest away attack and the Thorns’ clear edge in individual quality, this looks like a game where the hosts control territory and chances, with Houston relying on set pieces or transitions.
Predicted Score: Portland Thorns W 2-0 Houston Dash W
Portland Thorns W Recent Form
Portland’s recent form is generally positive. Their current league form string of WDLDW from the standings reflects a side that is hard to beat, with only one loss in the last five. Across the broader campaign they have 12 wins from 25, and their recent five-match sample shows an improving attack (1.6 goals per game) and a defence conceding just 1 per match, underlining their balance heading into this fixture.
Houston Dash W Recent Form
Houston Dash W arrive in far shakier shape. Their standings form of WLLLL highlights one win followed by four straight defeats, and over their last five they average only 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The longer-term league form string shows repeated losing streaks, and their away record – 3 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses – underlines why they are underdogs at Providence Park.
Portland Thorns W Possible Starting Lineup
Likely key players (by position group) based on the current squad list:
Goalkeepers: M. Arnold; M. Messner; M. Wood.
Defenders: Carolyn Calzada, S. Hiatt, M. Müller, I. Obaze, J. Perry, R. Reyes, M. Vignola.
Midfielders: Mallie McKenzie, N. Nijstad, C. Bogere, J. Fleming, S. Harvey, Renee Lyles, O. Moultrie, Caiya Hanks, P. Tordin, R. Turner, M. Weaver.
Forwards/Attackers: V. Loboa, M. Padelski, S. Smith.
Portland have predominantly used a 4-2-3-1 formation (19 times this season), which fits their personnel: a solid back four with full-backs like Vignola and Reyes, a double pivot including players such as J. Fleming or C. Bogere, and an attacking three built around P. Tordin and O. Moultrie supporting S. Smith as the central striker. With only 2 matches all season where they failed to score, their tactical shape is clearly geared towards sustained attacking pressure, especially at home.
Houston Dash W Possible Starting Lineup
Goalkeepers: H. Beall, J. Campbell, C. Delisle.
Defenders: N. M. Bain, M. Berkely, L. Boattin, A. Chapman, C. Hardin, L. Klenke, P. Nielsen, Avery Patterson.
Midfielders: D. Colaprico, E. Duljan, M. Graham, S. Puntigam, S. Schmidt, L. Ullmark, K. van Zanten, K. Rader, M. Ivanović.
Forwards/Attackers: M. Bright, K. Faasse, K. Harper, C. Larisey, M. Doniak.
Houston have alternated mainly between 4-4-2 (12 times) and 4-2-3-1 (10 times). Away from home, they may lean on a more conservative 4-4-2, with Patterson and Nielsen anchoring the back line and a midfield shield involving experienced players like D. Colaprico and S. Puntigam. K. Rader is likely to be the key advanced midfielder or second striker, tasked with linking transitions and providing a goal threat. However, with 9 matches this season where they have failed to score, their structure often struggles to create clear chances against better sides.
Portland Thorns W Team News
No significant absences reported.
Houston Dash W Team News
No significant absences reported.
Injuries & Suspensions
Portland Thorns W:
- None reported.
Houston Dash W:
- None reported.
Betting Tips: Portland Thorns W vs Houston Dash W
Exactly 3 distinct betting ideas across different markets, based on current stats and prices.
- Result Tip: Back Portland Thorns W to win. They are strong at home (7 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss) and dominate the H2H, while Houston’s away record is poor. The prediction probabilities give Portland a 45% win chance versus just 10% for Houston. Across bookmakers, home odds range from 1.50 to 1.60, implying roughly a 62.5%–66.7% chance of a Thorns victory, offering a solid favourite play.
- Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Portland average 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Houston average 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded. Many of their meetings are comfortable but not wild scorelines (2-0, 2-1, 2-0). With Houston’s attack misfiring recently (0.6 goals per game over the last five), a controlled Portland win without a goal explosion looks likely. Look for under-goals prices around the main totals market with the same bookmakers offering match odds.
- Value Tip: Portland Thorns W to win to nil. Portland have 9 clean sheets this season and concede just 0.7 goals per game at home, while Houston have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches and struggle away from home. Given the defensive numbers and Portland’s dominance in recent H2H shutouts (2-0, 2-0, 4-1 with limited chances conceded), the win-to-nil angle offers a higher price than the straight home win. Expect this to be notably above the 1.50–1.60 range quoted for the match winner market, providing potential value.
Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
