Newcastle host Qarabag in Newcastle in a UEFA Champions League Round of 32 tie on 24 February 2026 (20:00 UTC). In the overall season table provided, Newcastle sit 12th with 14 points and a +10 goal difference, while Qarabag are 22nd with 10 points and a -8 goal difference. Both sides have already shown enough to reach the play-off phase.
Squad Analysis: Newcastle
Newcastle arrive with one of the competition’s most balanced statistical profiles. Across 9 Champions League matches they have scored 23 goals and conceded only 8, averaging 2.6 goals for and 0.9 against per game. At home they have 9 goals scored and just 2 conceded in 4 fixtures, plus 3 home clean sheets from 4, underlining a strong defensive base.
Anthony Gordon is the standout threat. The attacker has 10 goals and 2 assists in 9 appearances, converting 14 shots on target from 18 attempts and carrying a 7.74 average rating. Harvey Barnes supports with 5 goals and 2 assists in 9 games, with 14 of his 16 shots on target and a 7.38 rating, giving Newcastle two high-output wide forwards.
Penalties are another weapon: Newcastle have scored 5 out of 5 (100.00%) from the spot. Defensively, they have kept 4 clean sheets overall and have never failed to score (0 “failedToScore” in 9 games), suggesting a team that consistently creates and converts chances.
Injuries, however, bite into depth and structure. Bruno Guimaraes (muscle injury) weakens the midfield, while defensive options F. Schar (ankle injury), E. Krafth (knee injury) and V. Livramento (hamstring injury) are all out. M. Thiaw is suspended due to yellow cards, further reducing defensive rotation, and Y. Wissa (knock) plus youngster L. Miley (knee injury) limit attacking and midfield alternatives.
Squad Analysis: Qarabag
Qarabag’s numbers point to a high-variance side. Over 15 Champions League matches they have scored 29 goals but conceded 32, averaging 1.9 goals for and 2.1 against. Away from home they have 11 goals in 7 matches (1.6 per game) but have shipped 14 (2.0 per game), with only 2 away clean sheets and 2 away games without scoring.
In the league-wide scoring charts, Leandro Andrade is their key offensive figure. The midfielder has 4 goals and 2 assists in 12 appearances, from only 6 shots and 5 on target, and has produced 9 key passes in 169 total passes. That output from midfield underpins Qarabag’s 5-match winning streak earlier in the campaign, reflected in their “biggest streak” of 5 consecutive wins.
Defensively, Qarabag’s best results include a 5-1 home win and a 0-3 away win, but their heaviest defeats, 1-6 at home and 6-0 away, mirror the fragility of a back line that has allowed up to 6 goals in a single match. They have 4 clean sheets overall but have conceded 5 or more in their worst days.
Injuries complicate matters. Goalkeeper S. Mahammadaliyev is missing through injury, affecting stability at the back. B. Mustafazada is questionable, while R. Sheydayev, J. Gnali and A. Rzayev are listed as inactive, reducing depth, especially in rotation options.
Key Matchups & Tactical Trends
Battle 1 – Anthony Gordon vs Qarabag’s defence
Gordon’s 10 goals in 9 games go up against a defence conceding 2.1 goals per match overall and 2.0 away. Qarabag’s heaviest away loss of 6-0 shows vulnerability against high-tempo attacks. Newcastle’s home average of 2.3 goals per game and 3-0 as their biggest home win suggests Gordon can exploit space, particularly with Newcastle having failed to score in 0 matches.
Battle 2 – Newcastle attack vs Qarabag’s openness
Newcastle’s 23 goals in 9 games (2.6 per match) meet a Qarabag side that has conceded 32 in 15 (2.1 per match). Qarabag’s best away result is a 0-3 win, but their worst is a 6-0 defeat, underlining volatility. With Newcastle’s penalty record (5 scored from 5) and Qarabag averaging more than 2 goals conceded at home and away in their worst spells, any defensive lapses could be punished ruthlessly.
Battle 3 – Creative force vs disciplinary risk
Leandro Andrade, with 2 assists and 9 key passes, will often run into a Newcastle side that accumulates yellow cards in specific phases: 6 yellows between minutes 16–30 (46.15% of their total) and 2 in each of the 31–45, 46–60 and 76–90 ranges. On the other side, Qarabag’s defensive spine carries disciplinary risk: Matheus Silva has 4 yellow cards in 12 games and Kevin Medina also has 4 yellows in 11 games. With Newcastle winning 1 penalty and scoring 5 in total, any mistimed challenge from these defenders inside the box could be decisive.
Discipline overall should be a factor. Newcastle’s yellow-card profile is clustered in early and mid-game periods, while Qarabag’s cards peak between 61–75 minutes (7 yellows, 36.84% of their total) and 76–90 (4 yellows, 21.05%), hinting at late-game fatigue and potential for chaotic finishes.
Verdict
Statistically, Newcastle hold the edge in both attack and defence: 2.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, plus 4 clean sheets and no matches without scoring. Qarabag’s 1.9 goals scored and 2.1 conceded, combined with heavy defeats, suggest greater vulnerability, though their 8 wins in 15 underline that they remain dangerous if given space.
