Liverpool’s Defence Struggles Against Atlético Madrid at Anfield

Anfield knows this story well. European lights on, Atlético Madrid in town, and a Liverpool side still trying to work out exactly what it is under a new manager.

This time, it’s Andoni Iraola’s defence under the microscope. And it’s creaking.

Liverpool’s defence still under construction

Liverpool have shipped four goals in their first two Premier League games under Iraola, drawing both. The numbers are simple and damning: two conceded, twice in a row, before a more controlled 2-0 win at Ipswich steadied the mood.

The structure is still being stitched together. Ronald Araújo has been pushed out to right-back with Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni both sidelined, and that reshuffle has left gaps that better sides than Ipswich will happily target.

Atlético are one of those sides. Diego Simeone’s team know this ground and this fixture. They won 3-2 at Anfield in 2019/20 and came from 2-0 down here last season. They do not scare easily, and they rarely arrive without a plan.

The market currently gives Atlético a 46.5% implied chance of avoiding defeat. On the evidence so far, that feels generous to Liverpool. Atlético have never won a league-phase game against English opposition, but they don’t need to rip up that record to land this angle. A draw is enough.

Bet 1: Draw or Atlético (Double Chance) @ 23/20 with Sky Bet

Isak sharp and ruthless again

At the other end, Liverpool finally have Alexander Isak looking like the striker they thought they were buying.

Three goals in three Premier League games this season. Two of them came in nine ruthless minutes at Ipswich last Friday, with Cody Gakpo laying on all three of his goals so far this campaign. The understanding between the pair is starting to click; Isak drifts, Gakpo finds him, and suddenly Liverpool have teeth again.

This is a different player to the one who trudged through his debut season with four goals in 22 league appearances. He looks leaner, quicker, more decisive. He looks fit.

Atlético’s defence, by contrast, is anything but settled after a bruising 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao. That result has left scars and questions. The obvious counterpoint is Isak’s Champions League record: one goal in 13 appearances. On the biggest stage, the numbers are thin.

Yet the market gives him an implied 47.6% chance of scoring at any time. With his current form and the state of Atlético’s back line, that feels on the low side.

Bet 2: Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer @ 11/10 with Sky Bet

Simeone ready to suffocate the contest

The bigger problem for Liverpool isn’t just keeping the ball out. It’s what they’re doing with it.

Iraola’s side sit 19th in the Premier League for big chances created: four in three games. For a club that has built its modern identity on relentless attacking waves, that is a jarring statistic. Brighton, by comparison, have carved out 15 big chances in the same span.

Simeone will have seen those numbers. He will not mind one bit.

Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand will patrol the spaces Florian Wirtz loves to slip into, cutting off Liverpool’s main creative artery between the lines. Behind them, Jan Oblak still offers the calm, reliable presence that has underpinned Atlético’s best European nights.

Simeone will happily drag this into a slow, tight, narrow match. He has the tools and the temperament to do it.

And yet Atlético still carry a punch. They have scored seven times in their last four league games, and Julian Alvarez is expected to return to the attack and make his first start of the season on Wednesday. That gives them an extra edge in transition, especially if Liverpool over-commit.

Even so, with the under 2.5 goals line sitting at an implied 42.2%, there is value in backing a cagey, tactical contest rather than a shootout.

Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals @ 11/8 with Sky Bet

Form, lineups and the storylines in play

Liverpool come into this as a work in progress, not a finished product. Five points from three league games is solid enough, but the path to those points has been bumpy. Conceding twice in each of the opening two fixtures told its own story before the 2-0 win at Ipswich, where Isak’s brace at Portman Road finally injected some conviction.

The Swede now looks like the focal point of Iraola’s attack. Behind him, the options are trimmed. Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni are all unavailable, while Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo were not registered for Champions League duty. The squad is strong, but not limitless.

Atlético arrive still smarting from that 3-0 loss at Athletic Bilbao, yet they sit sixth in La Liga with seven points from four games. Their season is not derailed; it’s just been jolted.

Simeone is set to hand Julian Alvarez his first start of the campaign, with Cristian Romero also pushing for his first start since joining the club. The plan is clear: Alvarez is expected to stay at Atlético at least until January, and this is the kind of night that can define his early months in Spain. Alexander Sorloth (thigh) and Arnau Ortiz (suspension) are out of the trip to Anfield.

Probable lineups

• Liverpool expected XI: Alisson; Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola; Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak.
• Atlético Madrid expected XI: Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Baena, Álvarez.

Prediction: a tight, tense European night

The pieces point in one direction: a controlled, attritional game, with Liverpool’s attacking rhythm still sputtering and Atlético built to spoil, frustrate and pounce.

Score prediction: Liverpool 1–1 Atlético Madrid
Goalscorers: Liverpool – Isak; Atlético Madrid – Álvarez

Anfield has seen this script before. The question now is whether Iraola’s evolving Liverpool can finally rip it up, or whether Simeone’s Atlético will once again walk away having bent the night to their will.