Tottenham host Crystal Palace at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London on 5 March 2026 in Premier League regular season round 29. Tottenham sit 16th on 29 points, just above the drop zone, while Palace are 14th with 35 points and the more comfortable position. Model probabilities lean strongly against the home side: Tottenham are given around a 10% chance to win, with draw and Palace each around 45%.
Tottenham arrive in dreadful shape. Their overall league form line is littered with defeats and their last five show only 5 goals scored but 12 conceded, roughly 1.0 for and 2.4 against per match. Across the season they average 1.4 scored and 1.5 conceded, but at home that drops to 1.2 for and 1.6 against, with just 2 wins in 14 home games. Palace are steadier: 9 wins from 28, and away from home they have 6 wins and a positive goal difference (16 scored, 16 conceded), averaging 1.1 scored and 1.1 conceded per away game.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head in the league has recently favoured the Eagles: Crystal Palace completed a league double over Tottenham in the 2024/25 season, winning 1–0 at home (Oct 2024) and 2–0 away (May 2025). Tottenham’s only recent success came in their last meeting, a 1–0 win at Selhurst Park in December 2025.
Team News
Team news heavily undermines Tottenham. They are without a long list of key players: Richarlison remains available, but creators and attacking threats like J. Maddison, M. Kudus and D. Kulusevski are all ruled out, as are several defensive pillars including C. Romero and D. Udogie. That guts both their engine room and their back line. Palace also miss important names (C. Doucoure, J. Lerma, J. Mateta, E. Nketiah, plus M. Lacroix suspended), but their structure has been more stable all season. Notably, Mateta has 8 league goals and is a major loss, though Palace’s penalty record remains perfect this season: 3 scored from 3, all converted by Mateta personally.
Predictions and Betting
The official prediction points clearly to “Double chance: draw or Crystal Palace”, and the odds back that up. For the match winner market, Tottenham are between 2.30 and 2.46, the draw between 3.01 and 3.48, and a Crystal Palace win between 2.72 and 3.11. That pricing effectively makes this close to a pick’em despite Spurs’ home advantage, which is consistent with their poor form and injury crisis.
Best betting angle: follow the model and take “Draw or Crystal Palace” in the double‑chance market. For those seeking higher risk, Palace to win at around 2.72–3.11 has clear value. Given the low scoring profiles (Tottenham 1.2 for/1.6 against at home, Palace 1.1 for/1.1 against away), a tight contest is likely. Predicted scoreline: Tottenham 1–1 Crystal Palace, with Palace the more likely side to edge it if there is a winner.
