On 17 March 2026 in Lisbon, Sporting CP host Bodo/Glimt in a UEFA Champions League 1/8 final second leg with the Portuguese side trailing after a 3-0 defeat in Bodo on 11 March. Sporting must chase the tie, while Bodo/Glimt can manage their advantage.
Standings and Season Metrics
Standings and season metrics paint a nuanced picture. Sporting sit higher in the overall Champions League table (rank 7 vs 23), with 16 points, a +6 goal difference and a perfect home record: 4 wins from 4, scoring 11 and conceding just 3. Bodo/Glimt have 9 points, a negative goal difference (-1) and a more modest away profile: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeat, goals 7-8.
Prediction Model
However, the prediction model clearly leans towards the Norwegian side not losing. The strength index gives Bodo/Glimt a 54.3% overall edge, with better recent form (100% last-five record vs Sporting’s 60%), superior attack and defence metrics, and a 100% head-to-head success rate after the 3-0 home win. The official win probabilities are striking: Sporting only 10%, draw 45%, Bodo/Glimt 45%, and the recommended advice is “Double chance: draw or Bodo/Glimt.”
Open Play Numbers
In open play numbers, Bodo/Glimt average 2.2 goals per Champions League match (28 in 13) against 2.2 conceded by Sporting away but only 0.8 conceded by Sporting at home. Sporting’s home attack is strong at 2.8 goals per game, but they now face one of the competition’s most productive front lines, driven by Jens Petter Hauge and Kasper Høgh, both among the top scorers and Hauge also leading the assist charts.
Absences
Sporting’s task is further complicated by absences: F. Ioannidis, G. Kochorashvili, R. Mangas and G. Quenda are all ruled out, removing depth and at least one key attacking option. Bodo/Glimt list only inactive squad members as missing, so their core remains intact.
Bookmakers' Odds
Bookmakers, however, strongly favour the home win: Sporting are priced between 1.44 and 1.54, while the draw ranges from 4.42 to 5.43 and the away win from 4.70 to 5.43. This creates a clear divergence between market and model.
Rational Outcome
Aligning with the prediction block, the most rational outcome is that Bodo/Glimt avoid defeat, even if Sporting win on many price models. Given both teams’ scoring profiles (Sporting 1.9 goals for, 1.6 against; Bodo/Glimt 2.2 for, 1.5 against), a competitive, relatively high-scoring game is likely.
Projected scoreline: Sporting CP 2-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Best betting angle: Double chance – draw or Bodo/Glimt, exploiting the generous odds on the away side not losing against a model that gives them a combined 90% probability for draw/away.
