Played at Selhurst Park in London, this is a preview of a Premier League regular season round 32 fixture in the 2025 edition. In the league phase, Crystal Palace sit 14th on 39 points from 30 matches (goal difference -2), while Newcastle are 12th with 42 points from 31 matches (goal difference -1). Both are clear of the bottom three, but still short of mathematical safety and far from the top four; their realistic seasonal goals now revolve around securing safety early and, for Newcastle, keeping an outside shot at European qualification alive.
The first leg and the H2H lens
Newcastle’s 2-0 victory in the first leg puts Crystal Palace in a reactive position. At St. James' Park in January 2026, Newcastle won 2-0 at full time after the sides were level at 0-0 at HT. That result was part of a broader pattern: within the atomic five most recent league meetings, Newcastle have three wins, Crystal Palace have one, and there has been one draw.
Those five matches form a closed set that underlines how volatile this matchup can be:
- At home, Newcastle have posted heavy wins: 5-0 in April 2025 and 4-0 in October 2023, plus the 2-0 in January 2026.
- At Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace have a 2-0 win from April 2024 and a 1-1 draw from November 2024.
Across those atomic five games, Newcastle have scored 13 goals and conceded 3, but the home/away split is stark: Palace have conceded 11 goals in three trips to Newcastle, yet only 1 in two home fixtures. That contrast feeds directly into the stakes here: Palace’s season plan depends on continuing their relatively strong defensive record at Selhurst Park, while Newcastle must prove they can export their attacking edge.
The global picture: league phase vs all phases
In the league phase, Palace’s profile is that of a low‑scoring but competitive mid‑table side. They have 10 wins, 9 draws and 11 defeats from 30 matches, scoring 33 and conceding 35. At home they have taken only 16 of their 39 points (3 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats), with just 14 goals scored and 18 conceded. Across all phases of the competition, those same numbers hold, with an average of 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per home match and 11 clean sheets overall, but also 9 matches where they failed to score.
In the league phase, Newcastle have 12 wins, 6 draws and 13 defeats from 31 matches, with 44 goals for and 45 against. Their away record is more fragile: 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses, 15 scored and 19 conceded. Across all phases of the competition, they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.3 conceded away, with 5 away clean sheets but 6 away matches where they failed to score. Their form line in the league phase (LWWLL) suggests inconsistency: short winning bursts, followed by sharp drops.
Seasonal impact of each result
If Crystal Palace win, they would move to 42 points from 31 matches. That would likely keep them around 12th–14th but, crucially, it would stretch the gap to Newcastle and potentially to the bottom three into double digits, bringing them within touching distance of the commonly cited 40‑point safety line. With 7 matches left, a win would allow Palace to reframe their seasonal goal from mere survival to targeting a top‑half finish. Given their home record of only 3 wins in 15, adding a fourth would also correct a structural weakness in their season: underperformance at Selhurst Park. Psychologically, overturning the memory of the 2-0 first‑leg defeat and the heavy away losses in the atomic five would validate their defensive structure and 3‑at‑the‑back system across all phases of the competition.
If the match ends in a draw, Palace move to 40 points, Newcastle to 43. For Palace, reaching 40 with seven matches to spare would almost lock in safety but cap their ceiling: with a -2 goal difference and a home scoring average of 0.9, a push towards the top eight would remain unlikely. For Newcastle, a draw would be mildly disappointing in the context of European ambitions; at 43 points from 32 matches, they would be tracking below the typical mid‑50s total often needed for continental spots in the 2025 edition.
If Newcastle win, they rise to 45 points from 32 matches, opening a minimum 6‑point cushion on Palace and potentially closing on the cluster of clubs above them. With 6 matches left, 45 points would keep an outside pathway to the low‑50s alive, preserving a mathematical chance of reaching the European places depending on congestion above. It would also confirm a key trend across all phases of the competition: Newcastle’s ability to win away to mid‑table sides despite a negative overall goal difference. For Palace, staying on 39 from 31 would not drag them into an immediate relegation fight, but it would extend a pattern of home underperformance and keep any top‑half ambitions firmly on hold.
Verdict
This match is less about raw survival and more about direction of travel. A Palace win would effectively complete their safety job and open a late‑season push towards the top half. A Newcastle win would keep alive a slim European chase and underline their superiority in the atomic five. A draw edges both closer to safety but leaves each short of their stretch goals, freezing the table rather than reshaping it.
