On 11 April 2026, Reale Arena stages a Basque derby with very different pressures on each side. Real Sociedad, 7th in La Liga with 41 points, are chasing Europe and looking to turn a patchy campaign into a strong run-in. Alaves arrive from Vitoria-Gasteiz sitting 15th on 32 points, still uncomfortably close to the relegation fight and desperate to shake off a wobble in form. Add in the recent Copa del Rey drama between these two and this feels far more than just “Regular Season - 31”.
Context: Table, momentum and subplots
In the league phase, Real Sociedad’s profile is that of a volatile contender. Eleven wins, eight draws and eleven defeats across all phases, with 46 goals scored and 45 conceded, tell the story of a side that can outplay anyone on their day but leaves the door open far too often. At home, though, they are a different animal: 8 wins from 15 at Reale Arena, with 29 scored and 21 conceded, is top-six calibre.
Alaves’ reality is more fragile. Fifteen place, 32 points, a negative goal difference of -11 and a record of 8 wins, 8 draws and 14 defeats across all phases underline a team still looking over its shoulder. Away from home they have struggled badly: 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats in 15, scoring just 13 and conceding 25. This is the profile of a side that often sinks deep, survives in spells, but eventually cracks.
Yet the psychological balance is not straightforward. In the last five head-to-heads, Alaves have caused real damage. They have beaten Real Sociedad in the league in Vitoria-Gasteiz (1-0 in April 2025, 1-0 again in December 2025) and even snatched a 1-2 victory at Reale Arena in August 2024. Real Sociedad’s main recent comfort is the Copa del Rey quarter-final in February 2026, when they overturned a 2-1 half-time deficit to win 2-3 away and reach the last four.
That cup tie lingers over this fixture: Alaves know they can hurt La Real; Real Sociedad know they can come from behind and outplay them over 90 minutes.
Real Sociedad: attacking talent, defensive risk
Across all phases, Real Sociedad average 1.5 goals for and 1.5 against per game – a perfectly balanced but unstable equation. At home they are more expansive: 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average. The biggest wins (3-1 at home, 1-3 away) and heaviest defeats (2-3 at home, 4-1 away) underline how open their games can become once the tempo rises.
Tactically, the data paints a flexible but attack-minded side. The most-used formations are 4-1-4-1 and 4-4-2 (10 games each), followed by 4-2-3-1 (8 games). That suggests a coach willing to toggle between a single pivot and a double pivot depending on the opponent’s threat, but rarely compromising on having width and at least one advanced playmaker behind the striker.
Key to that is Mikel Oyarzabal. With 12 league goals and 3 assists, plus 55 shots (31 on target), he is the reference point in the final third. His 37 key passes and 50 dribble attempts (29 successful) show he is not just a finisher but also the creative hub, drifting between lines to connect midfield and attack. Around him, Gonçalo Guedes adds verticality: 8 goals, 4 assists, 24 key passes and 18 successful dribbles from 39 attempts highlight a winger/forward who thrives in transition and one-v-one scenarios.
Real Sociedad also bring a flawless penalty record this campaign: 6 scored from 6. In tight games, that reliability from the spot is a genuine edge.
The concern is at the back. Only 3 clean sheets across all phases and 45 goals conceded speak of structural issues: full-backs pushing high, centre-backs exposed in space, and a midfield that does not always protect the back line. The card distribution – with yellow cards peaking between 46-60 minutes and 76-90 – suggests a team that can lose control as intensity spikes after the break.
Injuries deepen the tactical headache. Real Sociedad are without J. Gorrotxategi, Y. Herrera, J. Martin (suspended for yellow cards), J. Ochieng, A. Odriozola, I. Ruperez and I. Zubeldia, with A. Barrenetxea questionable. That removes options in defence, full-back rotations, and midfield balance. The absence of Herrera in particular robs them of a dynamic ball-winner and carrier in the engine room. Expect a back four that may be short on natural depth and a pivot that has to be more positionally disciplined.
Alaves: rugged, direct and dangerous on the break
Alaves’ season profile is that of a survival specialist. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across all phases, but the split is stark: 1.3 for and 1.2 against at home, versus just 0.9 for and 1.7 against away. On the road, they concede more, score less and often find themselves pinned back.
Form-wise, the league-phase run of “DWDLL” shows inconsistency: a couple of positive results, then a slide. Their biggest away win (3-4) hints they can be explosive in transition when a game breaks open, but 10 away defeats underline how rarely they control territory or tempo.
Tactically, Alaves are built on 4-4-2 (16 games) and 4-1-4-1 (8 games), with occasional 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Expect a compact mid-block, two hard-working strikers, and wide midfielders who tuck in to help full-backs. The plan at Reale Arena will likely be clear: deny central spaces to Oyarzabal, force Real Sociedad wide, then break quickly into the channels.
The front line gives them a real punch. Lucas Boyé has 10 goals and 1 assist, with 43 shots (19 on target) and a heavy duel load (350 duels, 132 won). He is the physical focal point, capable of holding up play and bringing runners with him. Alongside or around him, Toni Martínez offers 8 goals and 3 assists, 59 shots and 203 duels won from 393 – a relentless presser and penalty-box presence. Together they embody a direct, combative style that can unsettle a defence as fragile as Real Sociedad’s.
Alaves are also flawless from the spot this campaign (6 penalties scored from 6), another reason they remain competitive in tight contests.
Discipline and depth are concerns. They have 3 clean sheets across all phases, the same as Real Sociedad, but their yellow and red card profile is spiky, with a cluster of late bookings and several reds between 61-105 minutes. In a high-emotion derby, that volatility could be costly. They travel without F. Garces (suspended) and C. Protesoni (muscle injury), trimming their options, especially for late-game energy and rotation.
Tactical battle: control vs chaos
This fixture shapes up as a clash between Real Sociedad’s desire for structured dominance and Alaves’ comfort in chaos.
Real Sociedad will want long spells of possession, using a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 to create overloads between the lines. Expect them to funnel play through Oyarzabal in the left half-space, with Guedes attacking the right channel or drifting inside. Full-backs will push high to pin Alaves’ wide men, looking to stretch a usually narrow 4-4-2.
The risk is obvious: if the hosts lose the ball with both full-backs advanced, Boyé and Martínez have the tools to attack the space behind in two or three passes. Alaves’ best route to goal is quick, vertical football: direct balls into the strikers, second balls contested aggressively, and wide players arriving late to support.
Set pieces could be decisive. Both teams have strong aerial profiles in attack and patchy defensive records; a single corner or free-kick might tilt a finely balanced game.
Verdict
The table, home/away splits and attacking talent all lean towards Real Sociedad. Their home record is significantly stronger than Alaves’ away form, and the presence of Oyarzabal and Guedes gives them more variety and quality in the final third. However, the injury list in San Sebastian, plus Alaves’ recent habit of upsetting La Real in the league, keeps this from being straightforward.
Expect Real Sociedad to dominate territory and chances, but also to offer Alaves moments to break. Over 90 minutes, the hosts’ greater firepower and Reale Arena advantage should tell.
Logical prediction: Real Sociedad to edge a high-intensity, chances-at-both-ends contest by a single goal, with both sides likely to score.
