Real Madrid vs Benfica: UEFA Champions League Knockout phase play-off second leg

Real Madrid host Benfica in Madrid on 25 February 2026 in a UEFA Champions League Knockout phase play-off second leg with the Spanish side holding the clear edge both statistically and in market perception. Real Madrid sit higher in the overall standings (9th vs Benfica’s 24th) and bookmakers make the hosts strong favourites, with home win odds clustered around 1.50–1.58, while Benfica are out at 5.00–5.88 and the draw around 4.40–4.75.

The official prediction model backs “Double chance: Real Madrid or draw”, assigning 45% to a home win, 45% to the draw and only 10% to an away success. That aligns with Real Madrid’s stronger campaign numbers: 6 wins from 9 Champions League games, scoring 22 goals (2.4 per match) and just 12 conceded (1.3). At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, winning 3 of 4. Benfica, by contrast, have a negative goal difference in the standings (-2) and a modest attacking output of roughly 1.2 goals per game, with only 0.7 scored on the road.

Head-to-Head

Head‑to‑head this season is balanced in scorelines but tilted in control: Benfica won 4–2 in Lisbon in the league stage, but Real Madrid responded with a 1–0 away win at Estádio da Luz in this knockout round, underlining their ability to manage high‑pressure games. Offensively, Real Madrid are powered by Kylian Mbappé’s 13 goals in 8 appearances and supported by top creators Vinícius Júnior and Arda Güler (4 assists each). Benfica’s creative hub Fredrik Aursnes (also on 4 assists) is listed as questionable, while the Portuguese side definitely miss N. Felix and G. Prestianni. Real Madrid are without J. Bellingham, Rodrygo, Eder Militao, D. Ceballos and D. Huijsen, but their depth and attacking metrics remain superior.

Advised Outcome

Officially, the advised outcome is “Real Madrid or draw” on the double‑chance market, and all analysis supports that conservative stance. Given Real’s high scoring average and Benfica’s relatively solid but not prolific attack, a controlled 2–0 or 2–1 home win fits the goal profiles (Real around 2.5 for, Benfica around 1.0 against). For betting value, instead of the short home win price (around 1.50–1.58 at major books such as Bet365 at 1.53 and Pinnacle at 1.54), the safest angle in line with the model is the double chance: Real Madrid or draw, even if priced very low, as the probability of Benfica winning outright is rated at only 10%.