Paris Saint Germain host Monaco at Parc des Princes on 25 February 2026 in a UEFA Champions League Knockout phase play-off second-leg clash. PSG return home with a 3-2 away win already in the bag and are clear favourites according to the market, with home odds clustered around 1.23–1.27 across major bookmakers. Monaco are huge outsiders, generally priced between 9.12 and 11.70, with the draw around 6.00–6.90.
The official prediction model backs Paris Saint Germain to win, combined with over 1.5 total goals (“Combo Winner : Paris Saint Germain and +1.5 goals”). That aligns neatly with the numbers. PSG’s Champions League attack is prolific: 24 goals in 9 games, averaging 2.7 per match, and 2.8 at home (11 in 4). Defensively they concede 1.4 per game, so their contests tend to have a solid goal volume, with at least 2 goals in 5 of 9 outings.
Monaco, by contrast, are far less convincing at this level. They average only 1.1 goals scored per game and concede 1.9, with a particularly fragile away defence (12 conceded in 4, exactly 3.0 per away match). That profile strongly supports a PSG win in a match with multiple goals, whether Monaco contribute or PSG do most of the scoring.
Head-to-Head Trends
Head-to-head trends further reinforce the home side. PSG have won three of their last five meetings in all competitions, including the recent 3-2 success in Monaco and a 4-1 home dominance in Ligue 1. The prediction model’s comparison section gives PSG a clear edge across form (62% vs 38%), attack (63% vs 38%), defence (58% vs 42%), and overall (67.7% vs 32.5%).
Squad News
Squad news tilts this even more towards PSG. While they miss O. Dembele and F. Ruiz, Monaco are without a long list of confirmed absentees, including A. Golovin (suspended), T. Minamino, K. Diatta and several others listed on the injury report, weakening both creativity and depth around top scorer F. Balogun.
Officially, the expected outcome is a Paris Saint Germain win with over 1.5 goals. A logical scoreline, based on PSG’s 2.8 home goals for and Monaco’s 3.0 away goals against, is 3-1 to PSG. From a betting perspective, the straight home win is very short at 1.25–1.27, but still a solid anchor in multiples. Given the prediction explicitly favours the combo, backing PSG to win and over 1.5 goals (where available) should offer better value than the bare home price, supported by PSG’s attacking metrics and Monaco’s stretched, injury-hit squad.
