Monaco host Juventus at Stade Louis II in Monaco on 28 January 2026 in a UEFA Champions League league-stage game (round: League Stage - 8). Monaco sit 21st in the overall table with 9 points, while Juventus are 15th with 12 points, both in positions that currently lead to the 1/16-finals play-offs. History strongly favors Juventus: in the last four Champions League meetings, Juventus have three wins and one draw, including two victories in Monaco.
Team analysis
Form points to Juventus having the clearer momentum. Their recent record in the competition is “WWWDL”, with only one loss in seven games and a +4 goal difference (14 scored, 10 conceded). Monaco’s “LWDWD” run is more mixed, and their overall goal difference is -6 (8 scored, 14 conceded).
At home, however, Monaco are resilient: unbeaten in three (1 win, 2 draws) with just 2 goals conceded. Their home defensive average is 0.7 goals against per game, and they have kept 2 clean sheets in those 3 home matches. Offensively, they average 1.0 goal scored at home, so they tend to be involved in low-scoring home games.
Juventus’ away profile is more open. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per away game (5 for, 5 against in 3 matches), suggesting more stretched contests on the road. They have not kept a clean sheet away from home in this Champions League campaign.
Injuries could be crucial. Monaco have a long list of absentees, including defensive and structural pieces like E. Dier, W. Faes, M. Salisu and goalkeeper L. Hradecky, plus creative options such as T. Minamino and P. Pogba, while K. Diatta is questionable. Juventus are also hit in attack with A. Milik and D. Vlahovic both ruled out, which should reduce their cutting edge, but key creator Kenan Yıldız (3 assists, 1 goal) is fit and influential.
A key stat: Monaco have failed to score in only 1 of their 7 games, while Juventus have failed to score just once as well, reinforcing the case for both sides finding the net.
Verdict & score prediction
The statistics suggest a balanced but slightly Juventus-leaning game: stronger overall form, better total scoring rate (2.0 goals per game) and a dominant head-to-head record. Monaco’s home solidity and Juventus’ attacking absences point away from a high-scoring rout. We predict Juventus to edge it 2-1, with both teams scoring but the visitors’ superior momentum and historical advantage making the difference.
Odds and betting angle (model-based, not market odds)
Based on the data:
- Home win probability (Monaco): ~28–30%
- Draw probability: ~27–29%
- Away win probability (Juventus): ~41–45%
Implied “fair” odds range (1 / probability):
- Monaco win: around 3.3–3.6
- Draw: around 3.4–3.7
- Juventus win: around 2.2–2.4
Form and head-to-head history favor Juventus, but Monaco’s strong home defence and Juventus’ missing strikers make a Juventus win at very short odds unattractive. Value would likely lie in:
- Juventus Draw No Bet, if priced above ~1.60–1.70
- Both Teams to Score “Yes”, given both sides rarely fail to score and Juventus concede 1.7 away on average
- Under 3.5 total goals, supported by Monaco’s low-scoring home pattern (1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game)
We predict a controlled Juventus victory, but the numbers suggest a competitive match where narrow Juventus-related outcomes and goal markets (BTTS, under 3.5) are statistically justified.
