Levante vs Osasuna: High-Stakes La Liga Clash in May 2026

Estadio Ciudad de Valencia stages a high‑stakes La Liga clash in early May 2026 as 19th‑placed Levante host mid‑table Osasuna. For the home side, this is pure survival football: they sit on 33 points with a goal difference of -17 after 34 games, firmly in the relegation zone. Osasuna arrive 10th on 42 points, relatively safe but still with something to play for in terms of a top‑half finish and prize money.

With only four rounds left in the regular season, every point for Levante is potentially decisive. Their recent league form (“LDWWL” across all phases) hints at a late, if fragile, revival. Osasuna’s sequence (“LWLDD”) reflects inconsistency but also a stubborn tendency to avoid defeat.

Tactical landscape and form guide

In the league across all phases, Levante have struggled for stability: 8 wins, 9 draws and 17 defeats from 34 matches, conceding 55 goals. At home they are slightly more competitive (5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats; 21 scored, 26 conceded), averaging 1.2 goals for and 1.5 against.

Their season‑long tactical profile is flexible but reactive. The most used shape is 4‑2‑3‑1 (11 times), followed closely by 4‑4‑2 (10) and 4‑1‑4‑1 (7). That suggests a side oscillating between an extra attacker and an extra midfielder, trying to find the right balance between protecting a fragile defence and giving their forwards enough support.

Levante’s attacking pattern is clear in the minute distribution of goals: 32.50% of their league goals arrive between minutes 76‑90, the highest share of any 15‑minute segment. They also produce a notable spike just after half‑time (17.50% between 46‑60). This is a team that often grows into games and finds late goals, either chasing or exploiting tired opponents.

Defensively, though, the same late period is a glaring weakness. They concede 30.19% of their goals in the final quarter‑hour, and another 22.64% between 31‑45. Concentration and game management around half‑time and full‑time have been costly all season.

Osasuna, by contrast, are the archetypal home‑strong, away‑fragile side. Across all phases they are 11‑9‑14, with a -2 goal difference (40 scored, 42 conceded). At El Sadar they are formidable (9 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats; 29‑20), but away from home they have only 2 wins, 4 draws and 11 defeats, scoring just 11 and conceding 22. An average of 0.6 goals for and 1.3 against on the road underlines why they sit mid‑table rather than pushing for Europe.

Tactically, Osasuna are more settled. Their base system is 4‑2‑3‑1 (19 uses), with various three‑at‑the‑back variants (3‑4‑3, 3‑4‑2‑1, 3‑5‑2, 3‑1‑4‑2) deployed situationally. The default plan is a solid double pivot, wide support for the lone striker and compact defensive spacing. Away from home, the priority is control and compactness; they have failed to score in 11 of 17 away games, but they also avoid blow‑outs, with 22 conceded suggesting structure rather than chaos.

Key players and attacking threats

The standout individual in this fixture is Osasuna’s centre‑forward Ante Budimir. The Croatian has 16 league goals in 33 appearances, ranking him among the division’s top scorers. He averages more than two shots per game (76 total, 36 on target) and is central to Osasuna’s attacking identity: a reference point for crosses, long balls and combination play.

Budimir’s penalty record this season is mixed rather than flawless: he has scored 6 but missed 2 from the spot. Osasuna as a team are 6 from 6 on penalties in the league, but the individual data shows Budimir has not been perfect. Still, his overall contribution is significant: 12 key passes, strong duel involvement (339 duels, 161 won) and a constant aerial and physical presence.

For Levante, the emerging star is 20‑year‑old forward Carlos Espí. With 9 league goals from just 996 minutes, his strike rate is impressive. He has 32 shots (19 on target) and offers directness and energy, with 10 successful dribbles from 22 attempts and a willingness to contest duels (159, with 75 won). In a side that often struggles to create sustained pressure, Espí’s movement and instinct in the box are crucial.

Levante’s overall attacking numbers are modest (38 goals in 34 games, 1.1 per match), but with Espí in form and the team’s tendency to score late, they remain dangerous if the game is close heading into the final 20 minutes.

Injuries, suspensions and selection puzzles

Levante’s survival bid is complicated by a lengthy absentee list. Confirmed out are:

• C. Alvarez (injury)
• K. Arriaga (suspended due to yellow cards)
• A. Primo (shoulder injury)
• I. Romero (muscle injury)

On top of that, Dela (muscle), U. Elgezabal (knee) and K. Tunde (muscle) are all listed as questionable. This cluster of injuries and suspensions likely affects both defensive depth and midfield rotation, pushing the coach towards a more conservative shape and potentially limiting late‑game changes.

Osasuna’s issues are lighter but still relevant. V. Munoz is ruled out with a muscle injury, while A. Oroz is a doubt through injury. Losing Munoz trims their options in wide or attacking roles, but their core structure and key striker remain intact.

Head‑to‑head: recent balance of power

The last five competitive meetings, all in La Liga, show Osasuna with a clear edge:

• Osasuna wins: 3
• Levante wins: 1
• Draws: 1

The most recent encounter, in December 2025 at El Sadar, ended 2‑0 to Osasuna, who led 2‑0 at half‑time and saw out the game professionally. In March 2022, Osasuna also won 3‑1 at home. At the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, the record is more balanced: a 0‑0 draw in December 2021 and a 1‑0 away win for Osasuna in February 2021. Levante’s sole win in this sequence was a 3‑1 success away in Pamplona in September 2020.

The pattern is of tight, often low‑scoring games in Valencia, with Osasuna marginally more efficient in key moments.

Statistical profile: goal trends and game rhythm

Levante’s under/over data across all phases paints a clear picture of a low‑scoring side:

• Over 2.5 goals: 4 matches
• Under 2.5 goals: 30 matches

That is an extremely low “over” count for 34 games, underlining how rarely their matches open up into high‑scoring affairs. Combined with Osasuna’s meagre 11 away goals and 22 conceded, the statistical expectation leans strongly towards a tight, cagey contest with limited scoring.

Levante’s defensive under/over figures reinforce this: only 7 games have seen them concede in matches that go over 2.5, with 27 under. For a team under relegation pressure, that suggests they are more likely to be involved in attritional battles than chaotic shoot‑outs.

Discipline could also shape the flow. Levante have accumulated yellow cards steadily across all phases, with a spike in the final 15 minutes, and have seen red cards in the 16‑30, 46‑60 and 91‑105 ranges. Osasuna’s yellow‑card distribution is similarly back‑loaded, with the bulk after the half‑hour mark. In a tense relegation‑influenced fixture, late cards and stoppages may further disrupt rhythm.

The verdict

On paper, Osasuna are the stronger side, higher in the table and boasting the most decisive individual in Budimir. However, their away record is poor and their attack travels badly. Levante, despite their position, are more competitive at home and tend to rally late in games, a trait that could be decisive against an Osasuna team content to manage rather than dominate away fixtures.

Injury and suspension issues tilt some of the tactical flexibility away from Levante, but the urgency of their situation and the form of Carlos Espí make them dangerous. The head‑to‑head record favours Osasuna overall, yet the matches in Valencia have been tight and low‑scoring.

Logically, the data points towards:

• A low‑scoring encounter, likely under 2.5 goals.
• A narrow margin either way, with a draw or single‑goal victory the most plausible outcome.

Given Levante’s desperation, home advantage and Osasuna’s travel sickness, a hard‑fought draw or a slender Levante win feels slightly more likely than a comfortable away success. Whatever the final score, expect tension, late drama and a match defined more by structure and set‑pieces than by flowing attacking football.