Leeds vs Nottingham Forest is set for Elland Road on 6 February 2026, with both sides level on 26 points and hovering just above the relegation zone (16th vs 17th). The stakes are clear: victory would give either club vital breathing space. Recent history is finely balanced: across the last five meetings in league and cup contexts, Forest have three wins, Leeds two, underlining how tight this matchup tends to be.
Leeds come in with slightly weaker recent form (“LDWLD”) than Forest’s “DWDWL”, but Elland Road has been their main asset. They have taken 5 wins and 4 draws from 12 home games, scoring 19 (1.6 per home game) and conceding 17 (1.4). The statistics suggest a team that is modestly positive at home, with 3 home clean sheets and only 2 home blanks in front of goal. Top scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin (9 league goals) is available and should lead the line, an important boost given Leeds’ limited overall scoring spread. Defensive absences such as J. Bijol and A. Stach weaken their structure, but season data already factors in a leaky defence (1.8 goals conceded per game overall), so a shutout looks unlikely.
Forest’s away profile is more cautious. They have 4 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats on the road, with 11 goals scored (0.9 per away game) and 17 conceded (1.4). Clean sheets in 3 away matches show they can be compact, but 5 away games without scoring underline inconsistency in attack. Missing attacking options like C. Wood and John Victor, plus the suspension of N. Williams, reduce their threat and depth, while several others (including C. Hudson-Odoi) are only questionable. Forest’s overall defensive record (1.5 conceded per game) is slightly better than Leeds’, but not enough to suggest dominance.
The statistics point to a narrow, relatively low-scoring home win. Leeds’ stronger home attack (1.6 scored) against Forest’s average away defence (1.4 conceded), combined with Forest’s limited away scoring and key attacking injuries, tilts the game towards the hosts. History at Elland Road (Leeds won 2-1 in the last league meeting there) also nudges the balance.
Predicted result: Leeds to win 2–1.
Leeds -0.25 on the Asian handicap and over 1.5 total goals look the most data-backed angles, with a home win in a one-goal game the likeliest outcome.
