Gameweek 38: Chasing Glory in FPL
The final day of an FPL season always feels a little unhinged. Leaks fly, line-ups melt, and mini-leagues are decided by punts that looked ridiculous on Friday and genius by Sunday night.
This year is no different. Rotation fears are everywhere, and the temptation to rip up a squad for one last roll of the dice is growing by the hour.
Zophar cuts straight to the point: understand who actually has something to play for, then decide how brave you really want to be.
Who Will Actually Rotate?
Strip away the noise and the picture is clearer than you’d think.
The meaningful battles are narrow: the scrap for European spots between 6th and 8th, and the relegation fight involving West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. That context matters.
It makes mass rotation from Liverpool, Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion, Chelsea, Sunderland, Brentford, West Ham and Spurs unlikely. These sides either still have something on the line or are stable enough to field strong XIs. Your existing assets from those clubs are, in most cases, good bets to start.
That doesn’t automatically make them the best transfer targets. When both teams are mentally “on the beach”, matches can open up and FPL returns spike from unexpected places. But it does give managers chasing 10, 20 or even 30 points a solid base: you don’t need to tear up those picks just to dodge phantom benchings.
The real tension sits with the two squads most FPL managers are already tripled up on: Arsenal and Manchester City.
Arsenal: Stars Training Alone, Minutes at Risk
Mikel Arteta kept his cards close in his press conference, but the training ground told a story. David Raya, Bukayo Saka and William Saliba all worked individually, away from the main group on Thursday.
They could all start. There’s no firm indication they won’t. Yet of that trio, Saka and Saliba still feel at risk of a rest.
On the right flank, Noni Madueke didn’t even get on the pitch against Burnley. Logic says he’s due minutes against Crystal Palace, which makes a Saka bench and late cameo entirely plausible. Arsenal can protect their star man and still maintain structure.
Raya is a different case. He already has the Golden Glove secured, but he’s chasing the record for most clean sheets by an Arsenal goalkeeper in a single season. That personal milestone strengthens his claim to start.
Up front, the picture is no clearer. Viktor Gyokeres may lead the line, but Gabriel Jesus or even Kai Havertz could easily get the nod. However it shakes out, Zophar doesn’t see a high-scoring fixture for the Gunners.
His verdict is blunt: if you have free transfers, look to move your Arsenal attackers on. Don’t buy into them now. And if you’re choosing between selling Saka or Gyokeres, he’d move Saka first.
Manchester City: One Last Etihad Occasion
At Manchester City, the narrative is heavy. It is widely expected to be Pep Guardiola’s final match in charge, even if he hasn’t confirmed it yet. The new stand opens at the Etihad, 7,000 extra fans in, and a squad that will want to send their manager out on a high.
That emotional charge usually translates into a strong XI.
Erling Haaland has a World Cup ahead of him in the summer, which raises the obvious question: does he get protected? Zophar leans towards a start, with the possibility of an early substitution. Enough minutes to do damage, not enough to run him into the ground.
Phil Foden looks set to start as well, which throws a shadow over Rayan Cherki’s minutes. Nico O’Reilly is trickier to call, his role far less predictable, much like Antoine Semenyo at Bournemouth.
The fixture itself carries real attacking promise. Aston Villa are still basking in their midweek Europa League win, and that kind of emotional hangover often drags defensive focus with it.
The call from Zophar is clear: keep Haaland and O’Reilly if you own them, but be prepared to move on Cherki and Semenyo.
Aston Villa and Manchester United: Simple Calls
At Villa, the expectation is brutal: mass rotation. For FPL, that makes their assets straightforward sells or bench fodder. Anyone still holding them at this stage knows the risk.
Manchester United are more straightforward. Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo are all expected to start. Casemiro, as Michael Carrick has already confirmed, will miss out. Beyond that, United don’t carry many highly owned assets that will move the needle on the final day.
Liverpool and the Others: Strong XIs, Steady Points
Liverpool should go full strength. Dominik Szoboszlai and Virgil van Dijk are both expected to start, with Mohamed Salah also likely to feature, subject to Arne Slot’s press conference.
Salah, as ever, remains in the captaincy conversation. One last dance for the FPL king? It’s on the table.
Elsewhere, Dominic Calvert-Lewin should start and remains one of the few other widely owned names worth a mention.
The broader message is about restraint. Hits on the final day, taken purely on guesswork around rotation, rarely age well. If a reliable team leak appears, that’s different. But ripping up a squad on speculation alone is a dangerous way to chase a deficit.
Use your bench. Accept that Gameweek 38 throws up chaos. Embrace it, don’t over-engineer it.
Building a Differential Free Hit XI
For managers on a Free Hit, or those simply looking for a bold final swing, Zophar turns to the fun part: the differential XI.
Defence: Target the Stakes
In defence, he zeroes in on West Ham and Spurs. These are the backlines he’d actually invest in with a free transfer this week.
Pedro Porro offers attacking thrust from wing-back, while Konstantinos Mavropanos carries set-piece and open-play threat. Both combine clean-sheet potential with an attacking edge.
John Stones is another name to circle. This is likely his last game for Manchester City, and that narrative, combined with his importance to Guardiola’s structure, makes a start highly probable.
Midfield: Upside and Opportunity
Jack Hinshelwood stands out. Over the last six Gameweeks, he ranks top among midfielders for big chances. With Casemiro rested, Brighton should find space and goals, and Hinshelwood sits at the heart of that threat.
Salah, again, looms as a powerful option and a viable captain. Yet Zophar even suggests he prefers Hinshelwood in this specific context, such has been the youngster’s recent output.
Burnley’s clash with Wolverhampton Wanderers could turn into a loose, open affair, with neither side eager to finish bottom. Zian Flemming would have been the preferred route into that game, but with forward slots more appealing, Jaidon Anthony gets the nod instead.
Then there’s Morgan Gibbs-White. Nottingham Forest showed against Manchester United that defending is no longer a priority. On home turf, they should still score a few against a Bournemouth side ranked in the bottom five for expected goals conceded in away matches. Gibbs-White sits at the centre of that creative chaos.
Forwards: Penalties, Minutes, Motivation
Up front, the logic is ruthless: minutes, penalties, motivation.
Richarlison and Jarrod Bowen both tick those boxes. They are on spot-kicks, play 90 minutes, and are central to their clubs’ hopes of staying up. In a Gameweek where some stars may get their minutes clipped, that security is gold.
William Osula completes the trio. He sits in the top three for expected goals over the last six Gameweeks, and with Marco Silva’s departure from Fulham imminent, the match at Craven Cottage could easily turn wild. Goals feel likely; Osula is well placed to profit.
The season closes with chaos, as it always does. Managers will agonise over whether to trust their big names, chase a leak, or back a differential that barely registered a month ago.
By Sunday night, mini-leagues will be settled not by safe picks, but by who had the nerve to back the right punt at the right time.
