FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay Preview: USL Championship Clash
FC Tulsa host Monterey Bay at ONEOK Field in a USL Championship group-stage clash with both sides aiming to consolidate their position after contrasting starts. Tulsa sit 7th in the USL 1 group with 16 points from 11 matches (4-4-3, goals 14-14), currently in line for the 1/8 final play-off spots. Monterey Bay are 12th with 11 points from 12 matches (3-2-7, goals 13-20) and a negative goal difference of -7, underlining a more fragile campaign so far.
Looking at recent form over a comparable window, Tulsa’s last five in the prediction model show 67% form, with a very strong attacking index (100%) but a low defensive index (22%). They have scored 9 and conceded 7 in those five, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded. In the league-wide sample (11 games), Tulsa average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match, with a balanced overall profile but a clear trend of games staying relatively tight: only 2 of their 11 league matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
Monterey Bay’s last five are rated at 60% form with the same very high attacking index (100%) and equally weak defensive index (22%), scoring 10 and conceding 7 (2.0 for, 1.4 against per game). However, this short-term uptick contrasts with their broader league picture: across 12 matches they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses, with 13 scored (1.1 per game) and 20 conceded (1.7 per game). The away split is particularly concerning: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses on the road, with 4 scored and 12 conceded (0.8 for, 2.4 against), plus zero away clean sheets.
Home and away dynamics strongly favour Tulsa. At ONEOK Field in 2026 league play, Tulsa are 2-2-1 with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded, averaging 1.2 for and 0.8 against. They have kept 2 home clean sheets from 5. Monterey Bay away are struggling (0-1-4) with 12 goals conceded; their defensive numbers suggest they are vulnerable, especially in the 46–75 minute window where they concede a high share of their goals.
Head-to-Head Data
Head-to-head data in the USL Championship supports a Tulsa edge, especially in Oklahoma. On 2026-05-03 at Cardinale Stadium, Monterey Bay led 1-0 at half-time but Tulsa came back to win 2-1 away. On 2025-08-07, also at Cardinale Stadium, Tulsa again won 3-2 away in an open match. On 2025-07-17 at ONEOK Field, Tulsa overturned a 0-1 half-time deficit to beat Monterey Bay 2-1 at home. On 2024-10-27 at ONEOK Field, Tulsa won 2-1 in the league, leading 2-0 at half-time and holding on. On 2024-07-14 at Cardinale Stadium, the sides drew 0-0. Going further back, on 2023-06-01 at Cardinale Stadium they played another 0-0 draw, and on 2022-10-13 at ONEOK Field, Tulsa (then listed as Tulsa Roughnecks) beat Monterey Bay 2-0. These fixtures show Tulsa repeatedly finding ways to edge tight contests, particularly at home, while several meetings have been low scoring.
Prediction Model
The prediction model is very clear: FC Tulsa are rated 45% to win, the draw is also 45%, and Monterey Bay just 10%. The comparison metrics lean Tulsa’s way overall (total index 64.2% vs 35.8%), with a strong edge in the Poisson-based goal expectation (78% vs 22%) and the head-to-head comparison (93% vs 7%). Both teams’ league under/over profiles and the model’s goal flags (“home -2.5”, “away -2.5”) point toward a match likely to stay under 3 goals.
Betting-wise, the official advice is “Double chance: FC Tulsa or draw”, which aligns with both the probabilities and the structural factors: Tulsa’s solid home record, Monterey Bay’s very weak away form, and the historical pattern at ONEOK Field. For a main position, backing FC Tulsa or draw in the double-chance market is the recommended play. For those seeking a secondary angle consistent with the data, combining Tulsa or draw with under 3.5 goals would be a logical derivative, given Tulsa’s low incidence of high-scoring games and Monterey Bay’s away struggles. The baseline forecast is a tight home-leaning result, something like 1-0 or 2-1 to FC Tulsa, with the draw as a live outcome but an away win statistically the least likely scenario.
