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CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia and Qarabag meet at National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 30 July 2026 for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. After a tight 0-0 draw in Baku on 23 July, this return fixture will decide who advances to the next round, with everything finely poised.

Qarabag arrive with an impressive defensive record in this Europa League campaign, yet they failed to break down CSKA Sofia at Azərsun Arena. The Bulgarian side, meanwhile, have been strong at home in Europe so far, scoring freely in Sofia but also showing some vulnerability at the back. With progression and valuable UEFA prize money on the line, this looks set to be a tense, tactical encounter.

From a betting perspective, CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag is an intriguing Europa League qualifying tie: the market leans slightly towards the Azerbaijani champions, but the predictions data gives equal 45% chances to both Qarabag and the draw, leaving CSKA Sofia as clear outsiders. That creates room for angles on the match result, goals markets, and potential value on the hosts’ attacking threat at home.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Stats

  • CSKA Sofia have a Europa League record of 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches this season, scoring 5 and conceding 3.
  • The most recent meeting on 23 July 2026 in the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round ended Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia in Baku.
  • In Europa League 2026 statistics, Qarabag have scored 6 goals and conceded 0 across 3 matches, keeping 3 clean sheets.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: Not available vs Not available
  • Points: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals For: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
  • Clean Sheets: CSKA Sofia 1 (tournament statistics) vs Qarabag 3 (tournament statistics)

Group-stage style standings are not yet applicable at this qualifying phase, but the Europa League statistics already highlight contrasting profiles. CSKA Sofia have played 3 matches, winning 2 and drawing 1, with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their games average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, suggesting a more open, end-to-end style, particularly at home where they have netted 3 goals in a single game.

Qarabag’s numbers are more controlled and clinical. Across 3 Europa League fixtures they have also won 2 and drawn 1, but with 6 goals scored and none conceded. They average 2.0 goals scored per match and have yet to allow a single goal, underlining a rock-solid back line and a well-organised 4-2-3-1 structure that has produced three clean sheets. This defensive resilience is the key reason they are marginal favourites in the betting markets for this decisive leg in Sofia.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Matchups

CSKA Sofia attack vs Qarabag defence

CSKA Sofia’s Europa League campaign has been defined by their ability to create and convert chances, especially at home. They have scored 5 goals in 3 matches, with an average of 3.0 goals per game at home and 1.0 away. Their goal distribution shows they are dangerous in multiple phases of the match, with a significant share of goals arriving between the 16th and 75th minutes. However, they have also conceded 3 goals, including 2 at home, which exposes some defensive frailty.

Qarabag, by contrast, boast a perfect defensive record in the competition so far: 0 goals conceded in 3 matches, with clean sheets both at home and away. Their defensive index in recent matches is extremely strong, and they have successfully kept opponents under all common goals-against thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5). The battle between CSKA’s multi-phase attacking threat and Qarabag’s disciplined back four and double pivot will be decisive in determining who progresses.

Midfield control: CSKA Sofia’s flexibility vs Qarabag’s 4-2-3-1 structure

CSKA Sofia have already used three different formations in their 3 Europa League matches (4-3-1-2, 3-5-2, and 4-4-2), highlighting tactical flexibility and a willingness to adapt. This variety can help them find pockets of space against Qarabag, especially between the lines and in wide areas. Their midfield has contributed to a positive “WWD” form line and a biggest win of 3-2 at home, but also leaves them occasionally exposed, as shown by their 3 goals conceded and lack of a home clean sheet.

Qarabag, on the other hand, have stuck consistently to a 4-2-3-1 formation across all 3 Europa League fixtures. That continuity has underpinned both their attacking output (6 goals) and their flawless defensive record. Their biggest wins — 3-0 at home and 3-0 away — suggest a side comfortable dictating tempo, pressing in organised fashion, and transitioning quickly. The tactical duel between CSKA’s shape-shifting approach and Qarabag’s stable structure will likely determine who controls midfield and, with it, the overall rhythm of the match.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides are becoming familiar foes, with several encounters in recent years across friendlies and now competitive European action. The recent history has generally favoured Qarabag, though CSKA Sofia earned a valuable draw in the first leg of this tie.

  • 23 July 2026: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)
  • 27 June 2026: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs) – Match Cancelled
  • 4 July 2023: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)
  • 7 July 2021: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced second leg. Both teams come into this tie with identical Europa League form lines of “WWD”, each unbeaten in 3 matches. CSKA Sofia have been more expansive, scoring 5 and conceding 3, while Qarabag have been ruthlessly efficient with 6 scored and 0 conceded. The 0-0 first leg in Baku underlines how small the margins are at this level.

The prediction probabilities give CSKA Sofia a 10% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with both the draw and a Qarabag victory rated at 45% each. That indicates a strong expectation of another tight contest, with Qarabag marginally favoured to edge it or at least avoid defeat. Given Qarabag’s outstanding defensive record and their ability to win both at home and away (biggest away win 3-0), they look slightly better equipped to manage the pressure of a decisive away leg.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

In Europa League 2026, CSKA Sofia’s recent form is strong: 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches. They have shown good attacking output with 5 goals scored, including a 3-2 home victory as their biggest win, but have also conceded 3 times. Their form pattern reflects a side that can outscore opponents but has yet to record a home clean sheet in this campaign.

Qarabag Recent Form

Qarabag mirror CSKA’s “WWD” record in the Europa League but with a much more controlled profile: 6 goals scored and none conceded in 3 matches. Their biggest wins — 3-0 at home and 3-0 away — underline their capacity to dominate both in Baku and on the road. With 3 clean sheets from 3 and a defensive record that has not been breached at any stage, their recent form is that of a well-drilled, confident side.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: D. Evtimov; Defenders: J. Gbamin, Adrián Lapeña, Á. Martino, Pastor, Facundo Santiago Rodríguez, A. Yordanov, Tamimou Ouorou, T. Ivanov, A. Tunchev; Midfielders: M. Ebong, J. Eto'o, J. Iliev, Bruno Jordão, V. Kaymakanov, A. Nikolov, P. Panayotov, M. Brahimi, G. Chorbadzhiyski, S. Sensi, I. Solet Bomawoko, Léo Pereira, A. Piedrahita; Forwards: K. Dodaj, S. Godoy, M. Phaëton, I. Pittas, R. Zhivkov, J. Zwarts.

CSKA Sofia have a deep squad with multiple options in defence and midfield, enabling their flexibility between 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Expect D. Evtimov to anchor the side in goal, with a back line built around experienced defenders such as Adrián Lapeña and Á. Martino. In midfield, players like Bruno Jordão, M. Ebong and S. Sensi offer a blend of work rate and creativity, while in attack the likes of M. Phaëton, I. Pittas, S. Godoy and J. Zwarts give CSKA various profiles — from target men to more mobile forwards. The challenge will be finding a balance that maintains attacking threat without leaving the defence exposed against Qarabag’s incisive counters.

Qarabag Possible Starting Lineup

GK: Ş. Məhəmmədəliyev or M. Kochalski; Defenders: Dani Bolt, J. Gnali, A. Hüseynov, B. Hüseynov, Bruno Langa, Matheus Silva, K. Medina, B. Mustafazadə, S. Niftiyev, B. Varkonyi; Midfielders: E. Cəfəqquliyev, Č. Makreckis, H. Jabrayilzade, H. Ibrahim, M. Imamaliyev, M. Janković, Kady, Nicat Khasiyev, Samuel Lobato, Joni Montiel, Mehdi Mutallimli, Pedro Bicalho, A. Bashirov, O. Kashchuk, J. Mouaddib; Forwards: R. Cephas, Behruz Qurbanli, M. Qurbanlı, Z. Sawo, R. Almeyda.

Qarabag’s consistent use of a 4-2-3-1 shape suggests a likely structure with Ş. Məhəmmədəliyev or M. Kochalski in goal, protected by a back four featuring experienced defenders like A. Hüseynov, B. Hüseynov, Bruno Langa and Matheus Silva. In midfield, the double pivot could include M. Janković and Pedro Bicalho, with creative options such as Kady, Joni Montiel or J. Mouaddib operating further forward. In attack, R. Cephas, M. Qurbanlı, Z. Sawo and veteran R. Almeyda offer a mix of pace, movement and finishing. This depth, combined with their existing 3 clean sheets in the competition, points to a side well-equipped to manage a tricky away leg.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Qarabag Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

  • None reported.

Qarabag:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles, based on current form, H2H data and available odds:

  • Result Tip: Back Qarabag Draw No Bet (market-dependent). Qarabag are slight favourites in the match winner market, with away odds ranging from 2.25 to 2.40 (implied probability roughly 41.7% to 44.4%), compared to CSKA Sofia’s home odds between 2.90 and 3.15 (about 31.7% to 34.5%). Predictions give CSKA only a 10% win chance, with Qarabag and the draw both at 45%. Taking Qarabag on a safer line such as Draw No Bet leans into their superior defensive record while protecting against another stalemate.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 total goals. Qarabag have yet to concede in 3 Europa League matches (0 goals against, 3 clean sheets), and the first leg finished 0-0. CSKA Sofia’s under/over profile in the competition shows 2 of their 3 games finishing under 2.5 goals. With the tie finely poised and knockout jeopardy high, a cautious, low-scoring contest is likely. Look for an Under 2.5 goals price in the main goals markets (exact odds will vary by bookmaker).
  • Value Tip: Draw in 90 minutes. The predictions data rates the draw at 45%, equal to Qarabag’s win probability and far above CSKA’s 10%. In the odds, the draw ranges from 3.10 to 3.30 (implied probability around 30.3% to 32.3%), which is significantly lower than the 45% modelled chance — a classic value discrepancy. With the first leg ending 0-0 and both teams unbeaten (WWD), another tight draw in regulation time is a realistic outcome at a potentially mispriced line.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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