CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League Preview

On 13 August 2026, under the lights of National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia, CSKA Sofia return home carrying a three-goal cushion and a growing sense that something special might be building in their UEFA Europa League summer. Maccabi Tel Aviv arrive wounded but not yet eliminated, knowing that another bad night could abruptly end their continental journey in the 3rd Qualifying Round. One side is defending momentum and pride in front of its own fans; the other is fighting to rescue a European campaign that suddenly hangs by a thread.

Season Context

For CSKA Sofia, this Europa League run has started almost flawlessly. Across 5 matches they have yet to taste defeat, with 4 wins and 1 draw from their qualifying path so far. Their attack has been consistently productive with 9 goals scored (1.8 per game) and only 3 conceded (0.6 per game), numbers that speak to a side both confident and well-balanced on the continental stage.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s European picture is more volatile but still alive. They have played 3 matches in this Europa League campaign, winning 2 and losing 1. The Israelis have shown a high ceiling in attack with 6 goals scored (2.0 per game), but they have also allowed 3 goals (1.0 per game), and that defensive fragility was brutally exposed in the first leg of this tie.

Form & Momentum

CSKA Sofia’s recent Europa League form is captured perfectly by their run of WWDWW, a sequence that underlines both consistency and resilience (4 wins and 1 draw in 5 games). Scoring 9 times in those 5 matches (1.8 per game) while conceding just 3 (0.6 per game) shows why they look so composed coming into this second leg. The prediction model’s last-five index also leans heavily their way, with a strong overall mark of 87 in recent outings, backed by solid attacking (69) and defensive (77) indicators.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League form string of WWL tells a different story: two sharp wins followed by a heavy setback. They have hit 6 goals in 3 games (2.0 per match), suggesting they can hurt opponents when their front line clicks, but the 3 goals conceded (1.0 per game) and the recent 0-3 defeat leave questions about their ability to cope under sustained pressure. Their last-five model rating of 67 shows a competitive side, yet one that currently trails CSKA Sofia in both attacking (46) and overall momentum.

Head-to-Head Patterns

The history between these two clubs on the European stage is short but already tilted towards CSKA Sofia. The standout result came on 6 August 2026, when Maccabi Tel Aviv and CSKA Sofia met at Batumi Arena in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round, season 2026. That night ended 0-3 in favour of CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League, season 2026, August 2026), a statement performance that now shapes the entire narrative of this return leg. With no other competitive, non-friendly meetings listed between them, that emphatic away win is the defining reference point: CSKA Sofia have already proved they can control this matchup on neutral ground, let alone at home in Sofia.

Tactical Preview

CSKA Sofia come into this match with the luxury of tactical flexibility and a lead to protect. Their Europa League statistics show 4 wins and 1 draw from 5 matches, built on a sturdy defence that has conceded only 3 goals (0.6 per game) and an attack that has spread 9 goals across different game states. Their varied use of systems — from 4-3-1-2 and 4-4-2 to 3-5-2, 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3 — suggests a coach comfortable adapting shapes to opponents while keeping a clear competitive edge (4 wins and 1 draw in those 5 fixtures). At home, they have scored 4 times in 2 matches (2.0 per game) and conceded just 2 (1.0 per game), which supports a plan built on measured control rather than all-out attack.

Personnel-wise, CSKA Sofia have options across the pitch. In defence, figures like J. Gbamin and Adrián Lapeña can anchor either a back four or a back three, while wide defenders such as Á. Martino and Pastor are suited to both full-back and wing-back roles. In midfield, the likes of S. Sensi, Bruno Jordão and I. Solet Bomawoko offer a blend of passing, pressing and positional discipline, ideal for protecting a lead. Up front, players such as I. Pittas, S. Godoy, J. Zwarts and Léo Pereira give CSKA Sofia the ability to counter with pace or hold the ball higher up the pitch when they need to relieve pressure.

Maccabi Tel Aviv, by contrast, must chase the tie. Their tactical profile shows three distinct systems used in this Europa League run: 3-5-2, 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. The 0-5 away win in their campaign underlines how dangerous they can be when the attacking structure clicks, particularly with a front line that can feature E. Sokler, Y. Malede, Orel Baaia or E. Madmon. However, the 0-3 home defeat to CSKA Sofia exposed vulnerabilities when their defensive block is stretched, especially with 3 goals conceded in just 2 home matches (1.5 per game).

In midfield, D. Glazer and Dor Peretz provide experience and work rate, while creative support can come from players like O. Davida, K. Belić and I. Sissokho. Defensively, the likes of M. Camara, R. Revivo and S. Yehezkel will be under pressure to hold a higher line without leaving space in behind — a delicate balance for a team that must attack yet cannot afford to concede early. Expect Maccabi Tel Aviv to lean towards a more aggressive 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, pressing higher and committing more numbers forward, which could turn this into a tactically open contest if CSKA Sofia choose to counter at speed.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: UEFA Europa League, season 2026 — 13 August 2026.
• Venue: National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia.
• Prediction: Win or draw for CSKA Sofia — Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 45% / Away 10%.
• Model: CSKA Sofia 59.3 — Maccabi Tel Aviv 40.7.

Betting Verdict

The prediction model leans firmly towards CSKA Sofia avoiding defeat, with 45% estimated chances for a home win, 45% for a draw and only 10% for an away victory. That aligns with the underlying form: CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in 5 Europa League matches with WWDWW and a strong 9–3 goal difference, while Maccabi Tel Aviv arrive on the back of a damaging 0-3 loss in the first leg. The bookmakers broadly price the home win between roughly 1.98 and 2.14, implying an approximate probability range of around 47–51%, with draws around 3.10–3.25 (about 31–32%) and away wins between 3.40 and 4.05 (roughly 25–29%). Combining the statistical edge, the three-goal cushion and home advantage at National Stadium Vasil Levski, the most defensible betting angle is to follow the advice of “Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw”, protecting against a cautious, low-risk performance from the hosts while still opposing a full Maccabi Tel Aviv comeback.