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Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Benfica welcome AZ Alkmaar to Lisbon on 28 January 2027 in the UEFA Europa League League Stage - 8, with the Portuguese side looking to turn their strong early-tournament momentum into another statement performance. Although the venue name is not specified, home advantage in Lisbon has already been a major factor in Benfica’s European campaign.

Both teams start this League Stage round on 0 points, but the context is very different. Benfica arrive as one of the competition’s form teams, sitting 4th in the overall League Round table with an eye-catching recent record and a prolific attack. AZ Alkmaar, ranked 3rd in the League Round standings, are still an unknown quantity in this Europa League season, having yet to play a match in the competition according to the current stats snapshot.

This Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar clash shapes up as a classic battle between a side with proven Europa League firepower and an opponent whose ceiling is unclear but whose domestic pedigree is respected. For bettors and neutral fans alike, it is a fascinating spot to assess Benfica’s attacking numbers, their key man Vangelis Pavlidis, and how AZ might cope in their first real statistical test of this European campaign.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Stats

  • Benfica are 4th in the UEFA Europa League League Round table with recent group-stage form of WWDWW and 0 goals scored or conceded yet in the new phase, but a strong underlying record from 6 Europa League fixtures (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss).
  • There are no recent head-to-head meetings recorded between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar in the provided data, so this tie effectively starts with a blank H2H slate.
  • Across 6 Europa League fixtures this season, Benfica have scored 19 goals (average 3.2 per game) and conceded just 6, while keeping 1 clean sheet in tournament statistics.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 4 vs 3
  • Points: 0 vs 0
  • Goals For: 0 vs 0
  • Goals Against: 0 vs 0
  • Clean Sheets: Benfica 1, AZ Alkmaar 0 (tournament statistics so far)

On paper, the standings show both sides level on points and yet to score or concede in the current League Stage, but that hides the wider Europa League picture. Benfica’s broader tournament record across 6 fixtures is excellent: 4 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat, with 19 goals scored and only 6 conceded. Their recent form string of LWWDWW underlines a team that has quickly recovered from a single setback.

AZ Alkmaar, by contrast, are listed 3rd in the League Round but with no Europa League fixtures played in the current statistical sample. That leaves their European level hard to benchmark against Benfica’s. What is clear is that Benfica’s attack is already calibrated to this competition, averaging 4.7 goals per home game and 1.7 away, while AZ’s numbers remain a blank canvas.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Matchups

V. Pavlidis vs C. Stengs

Vangelis Pavlidis has been the standout figure in Benfica’s Europa League campaign. The Greek forward has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 appearances, making him both the competition’s top scorer and joint-top assister in the current dataset. He has also picked up 1 yellow card, underlining how central he is to Benfica’s high-intensity attacking play.

On the AZ Alkmaar side, there are no Europa League top-scorer or top-assist entries yet, but C. Stengs stands out in the squad list as a creative midfielder with the pedigree to be AZ’s main offensive reference. The tactical battle will likely revolve around whether Stengs and the AZ midfield can keep the ball long enough to deny Pavlidis the volume of chances he has enjoyed so far. Given Benfica’s 19 goals in 6 Europa League games, limiting service to Pavlidis is absolutely critical for the visitors.

Rafa vs AZ Alkmaar’s defensive line

Rafa has been an ideal foil for Pavlidis. The Portuguese attacker has 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 Europa League appearances, contributing directly to three goals and operating as a key link between midfield and attack. His ability to drift between the lines and combine with runners like D. Lukebakio and A. Schjelderup makes Benfica difficult to defend against.

AZ’s defensive unit, which includes experienced figures such as W. Hoedt and M. de Wit, will have to cope with Rafa’s movement without any prior Europa League data to lean on this season. Benfica’s home scoring average of 4.7 goals per game in the competition suggests that if AZ’s back line is not perfectly organized, Rafa’s intelligence and timing can quickly open them up.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

There are no recent recorded head-to-head meetings between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar in the available Europa League data. That means both sides go into this fixture without a recent direct reference point, increasing the tactical intrigue and leaving bettors to rely more heavily on current form and squad quality.

    Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

    All the available stats point towards Benfica carrying the stronger momentum into this tie. Their Europa League record of 4 wins in 6, combined with 19 goals scored and a last-five attacking index of 100 out of 100, paints the picture of a side that has already found a ruthless edge in Europe. Their defensive numbers are solid too, conceding just 1 goal per game on average and keeping 1 clean sheet in tournament play.

    AZ Alkmaar’s lack of Europa League minutes in the current statistical snapshot makes them a wild card, but it also means there is no evidence yet that they can live with a high-scoring side like Benfica away from home. The comparison model heavily favours Benfica in form and attack, while AZ’s defensive index is rated higher — but that is on a zero-games sample and should be treated with caution.

    The probability block rates this as a perfectly balanced contest — 33% home win, 33% draw, 33% away win — reflecting uncertainty more than equality. Given Benfica’s proven European output and home advantage in Lisbon, the underlying numbers still tilt this matchup towards the hosts, though AZ’s unknowns keep the prediction conservative rather than emphatic.

    Predicted Score: Benfica 2-1 AZ Alkmaar

    Benfica Recent Form

    Benfica’s recent Europa League form reads LWWDWW, with the sequence showing a quick bounce-back after an early defeat. Across 6 matches, they have scored 19 goals (3.2 per game) and conceded just 6 (1.0 per game). At home, they have been devastating, with 14 goals in 3 fixtures (4.7 per match) and only 2 conceded. They have yet to fail to score in any of their 6 Europa League outings.

    AZ Alkmaar Recent Form

    AZ Alkmaar’s Europa League form is effectively a blank slate in the current data. They are listed with 0 fixtures played, 0 goals scored and 0 conceded, and no recorded form string. That absence of evidence makes it difficult to project their European level, but it also means they arrive without any recent continental scars or confidence-boosting results to reference.

    Benfica Possible Starting Lineup

    Key available players (by position):
    Goalkeepers: A. Trubin, Samuel Soares, Diogo Ferreira
    Defenders: C. Lenglet, A. Bah, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl, S. El Karouani, A. Circati, J. Neto, Rui Silva, Gabriel Indio
    Midfielders: João Palhinha, L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński, Manu, F. Aursnes, C. Echeverri, Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira, M. Figueiredo, G. Prestianni, Rafa, A. Schjelderup
    Forwards/Attackers: V. Pavlidis, D. Lukebakio, J. Durán, Bruma, A. Cabral, Felipe Lima

    Benfica have largely alternated between a 4-2-3-1 and a 4-1-3-2 in Europa League play, using both systems multiple times. With Pavlidis in prolific form and Rafa supporting from midfield, the likely structure will again prioritise attacking width and late runs into the box. The presence of strong ball-winners like João Palhinha and versatile defenders such as C. Lenglet and A. Bah gives the coach flexibility to adjust between a more aggressive front four and a slightly more balanced 4-2-3-1 without changing personnel drastically.

    AZ Alkmaar Possible Starting Lineup

    Key available players (by position):
    Goalkeepers: R. Owusu-Oduro, H. Verhulst, J. Zoet, J. De Busser, I. Ka
    Defenders: W. Hoedt, W. Goes, M. Chávez, L. Schouten, M. de Wit, D. Kasius, S. Maikuma, R. Ichihara, E. Dijkstra, A. Natali
    Midfielders: J. Clasie, P. Koopmeiners, D. Kwakman, J. Oerip, S. Resink, R. Robbemond, K. Smit, H. de Wit, V. Byskov, R. Daal, C. Stengs
    Forwards/Attackers: J. Hornkamp, M. Meerdink, Weslley Patati, B. Kovacs, A. Oufkir

    Without Europa League lineups recorded, AZ’s exact shape is speculative, but the squad composition suggests a back four in front of an experienced midfield core including J. Clasie and P. Koopmeiners. C. Stengs should be the creative hub, linking midfield to a front line featuring options like J. Hornkamp and M. Meerdink. Against a high-scoring Benfica, AZ are likely to lean on their more experienced defenders such as W. Hoedt and M. de Wit to try to contain wide threats and aerial deliveries.

    Benfica Team News

    No significant absences reported.

    AZ Alkmaar Team News

    No significant absences reported.

    Injuries & Suspensions

    Benfica:

    • None reported.

    AZ Alkmaar:

    • None reported.

    Betting Tips: Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar

    Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

    • Result Tip: Back Benfica to win. The probability block rates the game 33% home, 33% draw, 33% away, but Benfica’s actual Europa League body of work (4 wins from 6, 19 goals scored) and a last-five attacking index of 100 out of 100 make them the more trustworthy side, especially at home in Lisbon.
    • Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. Benfica’s Europa League matches have averaged 4.2 goals per game (19 scored, 6 conceded across 6 fixtures), with 14 goals in just 3 home games. Their offensive approach and Pavlidis’ form strongly suggest a high-scoring contest, even if AZ’s contribution is harder to project.
    • Value Tip: V. Pavlidis to score anytime. With 5 goals and 1 assist in only 3 Europa League appearances, plus involvement in both top scorers and top assists charts, Pavlidis is central to everything Benfica do in attack. His shot volume and penalty-taking record (Benfica are 4/4 from the spot in the tournament) enhance his appeal as a value goalscorer option if the market underestimates his current streak.

    Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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