Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich
Competition: UEFA Champions League 2025, 1/8 final
Fixture status: Review (match finished in regular time)
Result: Bayern München 4–1 Atalanta (score was 1–0 at the break)
Referee: Benoît Bastien, France
1. Overall season context and standings
Bayern München – season profile (overall this season)
- Record (overall this season): 9 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in 10 matches.
- Home: 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- Away: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss.
- Goals (overall this season):
- Scored: 32 (16 home, 16 away) – an elite 3.2 goals per game.
- Conceded: 10 (3 home, 7 away) – only 1.0 per game.
- Clean sheets (overall this season): 2.
- Failed to score: 0 – they have found the net in every Champions League outing.
- Penalties (overall this season): 3 scored from 3 taken, 3 successful penalties.
- Preferred shape: 4‑2‑3‑1 (used in all 10 matches).
Standings snapshot before/around this tie (Champions League table data):
- Rank: 2nd in the competition table.
- Points: 21.
- Goal difference: +14 (22 scored, 8 conceded in the standings dataset).
- Form line from standings: WWWLW.
- Home in standings: 4 wins from 4, 12 scored, 2 conceded – Allianz Arena is a fortress.
Defensively, Bayern’s season numbers (10 conceded overall this season vs 23 for Atalanta) underline a significantly stronger back line.
Atalanta – season profile (overall this season)
- Record (overall this season): 5 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses in 12 matches.
- Home: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.
- Away: 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses.
- Goals (overall this season):
- Scored: 16 (11 home, 5 away) – 1.3 per game.
- Conceded: 23 (12 home, 11 away) – 1.9 per game.
- Clean sheets (overall this season): 3 (1 home, 2 away).
- Failed to score: 4 matches.
- Penalties (overall this season): 2 scored from 2 taken, 2 successful penalties.
- Tactical flexibility: primary shape 3‑4‑2‑1 (7 matches), plus 3‑4‑1‑2, 3‑4‑3, and 4‑4‑2 used occasionally.
Standings snapshot:
- Rank: 15th in the Champions League table.
- Points: 13.
- Goal difference: 0 (10 scored, 10 conceded in the standings dataset).
- Form line from standings: LLWWW.
- Away in standings: 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 4 scored, 5 conceded.
Compared to Bayern, Atalanta arrive with a more volatile profile: capable of scoring, but conceding heavily, especially across full-season data (23 GA overall this season).
2. Match squads and tactical setups
Bayern München lineup vs Atalanta
- Coach: Vincent Kompany
- Formation: 4‑2‑3‑1
Starters
- Goalkeeper
- J. Urbig (40) – starting due to a goalkeeping injury crisis.
- Defence (right to left by grid)
- J. Stanisic (44) – right‑back.
- Kim Min-Jae (3) – right centre‑back.
- J. Tah (4) – left centre‑back.
- T. Bischof (20) – left‑back.
- Double pivot
- L. Goretzka (8) – central midfielder, box‑to‑box presence.
- A. Pavlovic (45) – holding midfielder, build‑up anchor.
- Attacking midfield line (right to left by grid)
- L. Karl (42) – advanced midfielder from the right half‑space.
- R. Guerreiro (22) – central No.10 role, linking midfield and attack.
- L. Díaz (14) – left‑sided playmaker/winger.
- Centre‑forward
- H. Kane (9) – lone striker and focal point.
Bench options
- Goalkeepers: J. Bartl (35), L. Prescott (37).
- Defenders: D. Upamecano (2), H. Ito (21), V. Manuba (41), D. Ofli (34), F. Pavic (43).
- Midfielder: K. Laimer (27).
- Forwards: N. Jackson (11), S. Gnabry (7).
This bench shows strong defensive depth and two clear attacking impact options in N. Jackson and S. Gnabry, while Laimer provides energy and defensive cover in midfield.
Atalanta lineup vs Bayern München
- Coach: Raffaele Palladino
- Formation: 3‑4‑2‑1
Starters
- Goalkeeper
- M. Sportiello (57).
- Back three (right to left)
- O. Kossounou (3) – right centre‑back.
- I. Hien (4) – central defender.
- G. Scalvini (42) – left centre‑back.
- Midfield four (right to left)
- R. Bellanova (16) – right wing‑back, high and wide.
- M. Pasalic (8) – central midfielder, late runs into the box.
- Ederson (13) – central midfielder, ball‑winning and transitions.
- L. Bernasconi (47) – left wing‑back.
- Two behind the striker
- C. De Ketelaere (17) – support striker/creator in the right half‑space.
- K. Sulemana (7) – second forward from the left channel.
- Centre‑forward
- G. Scamacca (9) – target striker and reference point.
Bench options
- Goalkeepers: M. Carnesecchi (29), F. Rossi (31).
- Defenders: B. Djimsiti (19), S. Kolasinac (23), D. Zappacosta (77), H. Ahanor (69), M. Bakker (5).
- Midfielders: M. De Roon (15), N. Zalewski (59), L. Samardzic (10).
- Forwards: G. Raspadori (18), N. Krstovic (90).
Atalanta’s bench is rich in defensive and wing‑back options, plus several creative and striking alternatives (Raspadori, Krstovic, Samardzic) to adjust the attacking structure if chasing the game.
3. Key absences and “Battle 3 – The Void”
Bayern München absentees
All the following were listed as “Missing Fixture”:
- A. Davies – hamstring injury.
- C. Kiala – ankle injury.
- J. Kimmich – suspended (yellow cards).
- W. Mike – hip injury.
- J. Musiala – ankle injury.
- B. Ndiaye – inactive.
- M. Neuer – calf injury.
- M. Olise – suspended (yellow cards).
- S. Ulreich – muscle injury.
Impact of absences
- Goalkeeper position: with both M. Neuer and S. Ulreich out, J. Urbig starts. Compared to Neuer’s usual shot‑stopping and build‑up quality, Urbig represents a step into the unknown, even though Bayern’s defensive structure (10 goals conceded overall this season) has generally protected the goalkeeper well.
- Left‑back: A. Davies’ absence removes elite pace and progressive ball carrying on the left. T. Bischof must compensate with positional discipline rather than explosive overlaps.
- Midfield control: J. Kimmich’s suspension deprives Bayern of their primary deep playmaker and set‑piece specialist. A. Pavlovic is tasked with replicating his distribution and defensive coverage.
- Creativity and goals between the lines: J. Musiala and M. Olise are both out. This is a huge creative void.
- M. Olise (overall this season in the Champions League):
- 3 goals, 5 assists, 27 key passes, 44 dribble attempts with 28 successes.
- 3 yellow cards, high usage as a right‑sided creator.
- Their absence shifts more creative responsibility to R. Guerreiro and L. Díaz, while L. Karl steps into a bigger role.
Replacement focus – The Void
- For Olise: L. Karl and S. Gnabry are the main beneficiaries.
- Gnabry’s season output (overall this season): 2 goals, 4 assists, 9 key passes, 92% pass accuracy. He offers end product and secure passing, but is starting from the bench here.
- L. Karl, starting in the right‑sided advanced role, must approximate Olise’s chance creation volume without his established chemistry with Kane.
- For Musiala: R. Guerreiro moves into the central creative role. His intelligence and passing can keep Bayern fluid, but he offers a different profile – more circulation, less one‑on‑one explosiveness.
Atalanta absentees
- Y. Musah – suspended (yellow cards).
Musah’s absence affects Atalanta’s midfield energy and ball progression. In his place, Ederson and M. Pasalic carry more of the defensive and box‑to‑box workload, with M. De Roon available from the bench to add steel if needed.
4. Squad statistical analysis (overall this season)
Bayern München – attacking and defensive profile
- Goals scored (overall this season): 32 in 10 matches.
- Very balanced across time intervals:
- 0–15: 5 goals.
- 16–30: 5.
- 31–45: 5.
- 46–60: 7.
- 61–75: 7.
- 76–90: 3.
- Strong surges just after half‑time and into the final quarter of an hour.
- Goals conceded (overall this season): 10 in 10 matches.
- Vulnerability spikes late in games:
- 16–30: 3 goals conceded.
- 31–45: 1.
- 61–75: 2.
- 76–90: 4 – 40% of their concessions come in the last quarter of normal time.
- Under/over pattern (overall this season):
- Over 0.5 goals in all 10 matches.
- Over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10.
- Over 2.5 in 6 of 10, over 3.5 in 4 of 10.
- Discipline (overall this season):
- Yellow cards: spread mainly from 16–30 and 76–90, with 6 yellows in the final quarter, indicating occasional late‑game tension.
- Red cards: 2 overall this season, both between 46–75 minutes. L. Díaz carries one of these reds in his personal record.
Atalanta – attacking and defensive profile
- Goals scored (overall this season): 16 in 12 matches.
- Slow starters, late finishers:
- 0–45: only 3 goals combined.
- 46–60: 3.
- 61–75: 3.
- 76–90: 7 – 43.75% of their goals arrive in the final quarter.
- Goals conceded (overall this season): 23 in 12 matches.
- Defensive pressure builds after the break:
- 0–30: 7 conceded.
- 31–45: 3.
- 46–60: 5.
- 61–75: 7 – their worst period.
- 76–90: 1.
- Under/over pattern (overall this season):
- Over 0.5 goals in 9 of 12.
- Over 1.5 in 5 of 12.
- Over 2.5 in 2 of 12 – many of their games are tight but they can collapse against high‑quality attacks (e.g. biggest away loss 4‑0, biggest home loss 1‑6).
- Discipline (overall this season):
- Yellow cards: spread quite evenly across 16–90 minutes, with a spike also in added time (91–105).
- Red cards: 1 overall this season.
5. Individual battles – Matchup Engine
Battle 1: Top scorer vs opponent defence
H. Kane (Bayern München) vs Atalanta’s defensive record
- H. Kane (overall this season in the Champions League):
- 10 goals in 9 appearances, making him Bayern’s and one of the competition’s most prolific scorers.
- 27 shots, 18 on target – high shot volume with strong accuracy.
- 3 penalties scored, 1 missed – 3 successful penalties, remains a constant threat from the spot.
- 9 key passes, 14 successful dribbles from 22 attempts.
- No yellow or red cards – disciplined focal point.
Atalanta’s defence (overall this season):
- 23 goals conceded in 12 matches (1.9 per game).
- Heavy defeats in their profile (4‑0 away, 1‑6 at home) show that when their back three is stretched, they can concede in clusters.
- Their worst phase is 61–75 minutes, where they concede 7 goals, exactly when Bayern’s attacking waves (7 goals 61–75) are strongest.
Statistical edge: Kane’s finishing and penalty threat up against a defence conceding nearly twice as many goals per game as Bayern strongly tilts this battle in Bayern’s favour.
Battle 2: Playmaker vs Enforcer
With the top assist provider M. Olise suspended, Bayern’s creative mantle shifts, while the enforcer role is clear from the cards data.
Playmaker side – Bayern’s creators (overall this season)
- M. Olise (suspended):
- 5 assists, 27 key passes, 3 goals – he has been Bayern’s primary chance‑creator.
- S. Gnabry (on the bench here):
- 4 assists, 2 goals, 9 key passes, 92% pass accuracy – extremely efficient when involved.
- L. Díaz:
- 4 goals, 3 assists, 18 key passes, 30 dribble attempts with 18 successes, plus one red card. He combines direct threat with playmaking.
- R. Guerreiro:
- Not in the top assists list but, in this setup, he is the central hub linking midfield to Kane, with a profile oriented towards circulation and smart final balls.
Collectively, Bayern’s advanced midfield line compensates for Olise’s absence with multiple sources of chance creation.
Enforcer side – K. Laimer (Bayern) and Atalanta’s discipline
- K. Laimer (overall this season):
- 4 yellow cards in 7 appearances, 20 tackles, 8 interceptions.
- 0 goals, 3 assists – he mixes ball‑winning with forward thrusts.
- As the card‑leader, he is Bayern’s main enforcer, but he starts on the bench here, ready to come on to protect a lead or stabilise the game.
Atalanta’s disciplinary profile (overall this season):
- 1 red card and a consistent flow of yellows across all phases, including late and added time.
- Y. Musah’s suspension from yellow cards underlines their combative midfield approach.
In this battle, Bayern’s playmakers (Díaz, Guerreiro, Karl, with Gnabry as impact) face an Atalanta unit that often has to resort to fouls under pressure. The numbers suggest Bayern’s creative depth should draw cards and free‑kicks, while Laimer provides an extra layer of aggression if Kompany needs to close the game down.
Battle 3: The Void – injured/suspended stars vs replacements
M. Olise vs his replacements
- Output lost (overall this season):
- 3 goals, 5 assists, 27 key passes, 44 dribbles attempted (28 successful).
- He is both a high‑volume dribbler and a top‑tier passer, with 423 total passes at 87% accuracy.
Replacements’ output (overall this season):
- S. Gnabry:
- 2 goals, 4 assists, 9 key passes, 195 passes at 92% accuracy.
- While he cannot fully replicate Olise’s dribble volume, he provides very efficient end product and secure ball circulation.
- L. Díaz:
- 4 goals, 3 assists, 18 key passes, 18 successful dribbles from 30 attempts.
- In the starting XI, he effectively absorbs much of the missing creative and scoring load from Olise and Musiala.
Net effect: Bayern lose one elite creator but can spread his responsibilities across Díaz, Gnabry, Guerreiro, and Karl. The statistical void is significant, but the squad depth is strong enough to keep the attacking output high.
J. Kimmich vs A. Pavlovic
- Kimmich is not in the dataset with detailed stats here, but his absence removes Bayern’s usual metronome.
- A. Pavlovic, as a starter in the double pivot, must ensure that Bayern’s passing rhythm and defensive shield remain at the same level that has limited opponents to 10 goals overall this season. His presence alongside Goretzka suggests a balance between control and vertical running.
Atalanta – Y. Musah vs current midfield
- Musah’s suspension reduces Atalanta’s athleticism and ball‑carrying in midfield.
- Ederson and Pasalic, while strong players, have to shoulder more defensive and transition responsibility against a Bayern side that scores heavily either side of the hour mark.
6. Team shot and block dynamics
The raw match‑event shooting data is not provided, so total shots and blocked shots for this specific fixture cannot be quantified. From the season context:
- Bayern typically generate high shot volumes given their 3.2 goals per game; in many games, a sizeable share of their attempts are either on target or forced through crowded boxes.
- Atalanta’s defensive record (23 conceded overall this season) suggests that even when they block initial efforts, second balls and rebounds often still lead to chances.
Without explicit shot statistics, we cannot state exact totals, but structurally:
- Bayern’s attacking patterns and volume mean they are likely to have forced Atalanta’s back line into multiple blocks and last‑ditch interventions.
- Atalanta, by contrast, usually rely on late surges and counters, which tend to produce fewer, but often high‑quality, attempts.
If blocked‑shot figures were available, the correct phrasing would be: “[Team] saw X of their attempts blocked by the opposition.” In the absence of those numbers, no specific totals are assigned.
7. Tactical reading of the 4–1 result
- First‑half pattern: The score was 1–0 at the break, consistent with Bayern’s ability to strike in any of the early intervals and Atalanta’s relatively slow starts (only 3 goals in the entire 0–45 window overall this season).
- Second‑half acceleration: Bayern’s season data shows 14 goals from 46–75 minutes, while Atalanta concede heavily between 46–75. The final 4–1 margin fits this structural mismatch: Bayern’s pressure after half‑time vs Atalanta’s fragility in that phase.
- Atalanta’s consolation: Their tendency to score late (7 goals in 76–90 overall this season) aligns with the single goal they managed in a game where they were largely outgunned.
Defensively, Bayern remained within their season pattern: 1 goal conceded, close to their 1.0 per game average, while scoring above their 3.2 average with four goals.
8. Verdict – statistical edge and squad outlook
From a squad‑analysis perspective:
- Bayern München
- Stronger defence: 10 goals conceded overall this season vs Atalanta’s 23.
- Far superior attack: 32 goals vs 16.
- Depth to absorb multiple high‑profile absences (Neuer, Davies, Kimmich, Musiala, Olise) without collapsing their structure.
- A world‑class finisher in H. Kane, backed by multi‑source creativity (Díaz, Guerreiro, Karl, Gnabry).
- Disciplined enough, despite a couple of reds overall this season, to manage game states.
- Atalanta
- Dangerous in late phases and capable of scoring, but their defensive numbers and vulnerability between 46–75 minutes are a poor match against Bayern’s strongest attacking window.
- The absence of Y. Musah further weakens their ability to cope with Bayern’s midfield rotations and counter‑press.
Statistical edge: decisively with Bayern München. The 4–1 full‑time scoreline reflects the underlying season data: a high‑scoring, defensively solid Bayern squad overpowering a brave but structurally weaker Atalanta side in this 1/8 final.
