On 17 March 2026 at Emirates Stadium in London, Arsenal host Bayer Leverkusen in a UEFA Champions League 1/8 final second leg with the tie finely poised after a 1-1 result in Germany. Arsenal come in as the competition’s top-performing side, while Leverkusen arrive as dangerous underdogs with a solid defensive profile but far less firepower.
Champions League Standings
In the Champions League standings, Arsenal sit 1st with 24 points from 8 matches, a perfect 8 wins, 23 goals scored and only 4 conceded. Their home record is dominant: 4 wins from 4, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Leverkusen are 16th with 12 points from 8, goal difference -1, and a more modest attacking output (13 for, 14 against). Away from home they are competitive (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; 5 scored, 4 conceded) but clearly a level below Arsenal’s efficiency.
Team Season Statistics
Team season statistics reinforce this gap. Arsenal average 2.7 goals per Champions League game and concede just 0.6, with 5 clean sheets in 9 and no defeats at all. Their form line is outstanding (WWWWWWWWD). Leverkusen average 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded, with their defence particularly vulnerable early and late in halves, as shown by the spread of goals against. Their broader form (DDLWWDLWWDD) is solid but not elite.
Head-to-Head Data
Head-to-head data (treated as a closed set of two recent matches) slightly favours Arsenal: a 4-1 home win in August 2024 and the 1-1 draw at BayArena on 11 March 2026. That gives Arsenal a clear psychological and tactical edge at Emirates, where they have already shown they can open Leverkusen up.
Injuries
Injuries are significant, especially for Arsenal with Mikel Merino, Martin Ødegaard and Jurrien Timber ruled out, while Leverkusen miss multiple players including Arthur, L. Bade, E. Ben Seghir, M. Flekken and Lucas, with M. Terrier questionable. Even so, Arsenal’s depth and attacking strength, led by top Champions League scorer Gabriel Martinelli (6 goals), should compensate better than Leverkusen’s more stretched squad.
Prediction and Odds
The official prediction model gives Arsenal a 45% win probability and only 10% for Leverkusen, with 45% on the draw and a clear “Double chance: Arsenal or draw” advice. Bookmakers align strongly: home odds range from 1.25 to 1.31 for Arsenal, 5.22 to 6.14 for the draw, and 9.26 to 11.34 for Leverkusen, firmly pricing the home side as heavy favourites.
Expected Scoring Levels
Expected scoring levels (both teams projected under 2.5 individually) and Arsenal’s defensive record suggest a controlled but not wild scoreline. A logical outcome is Arsenal 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Verdict: Arsenal or draw (double chance) in line with the model.
Best betting angle: Arsenal to win at 1.25–1.31, with correct score 2-0 as a higher-risk, value-seeking option.
