Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis at Levadia Stadium in the Super League 1 Conference League Group (Greece, 2025 season) is scheduled for 2026-04-05. This is a mini-league phase game where both sides fight for European positioning, with Levadiakos coming from the Qualifying Round as one of the stronger attacking teams and Aris as a low-scoring but resilient outfit.
Across the entire campaign, Levadiakos sit on 42 points from 26 matches, with a goal difference of +14 (51 scored, 37 conceded). Aris have 30 points from 26 matches, goal difference -7 (20 scored, 27 conceded). That is a huge attacking gap: Levadiakos average 2.0 goals per match, Aris just 0.8. However, current momentum and defensive stability point in a different direction.
The official prediction model rates this almost perfectly balanced: 10% home, 45% draw, 45% away, and explicitly advises: “Double chance: draw or Aris Thessalonikis”. The comparison block is also almost even (total 49% Levadiakos vs 51% Aris), but with a key split in defence (33% Levadiakos vs 67% Aris), reflecting how fragile the hosts have been lately.
Levadiakos’ recent form is alarming. In their last five, they have scored only 2 and conceded 12 (0.4 for vs 2.4 against per match), with attack efficiency at 17% and defensive rating at 0% in the prediction model. That is a complete collapse compared with their strong season-long home scoring (32 home goals in 13 matches, 2.5 per game). Aris, in their last five, also have only 2 goals scored (0.4 per game) but a far tighter defence: 6 conceded (1.2 per game) and a 50% defensive rating. In other words, both are blunt up front, but Aris are far less open at the back.
Across the entire campaign, Levadiakos are an over team in terms of goals for, but their defence is leaky: 37 conceded in 26 (1.4 per match). Aris are the opposite: only 20 scored (0.8 per match) but just 27 conceded (1.0 per match), with 9 clean sheets. They fail to score in 10 of 26 matches, yet remain very competitive because of their structure and discipline.
Head-to-Head
Head-to-head, if we focus on a recent “atomic five”:
- 2026-01-25 (away for Levadiakos): Aris Thessalonikis 2–2 Levadiakos – draw.
- 2025-10-26 (home for Levadiakos): Levadiakos 1–1 Aris Thessalonikis – draw.
- 2025-02-16: Levadiakos 4–1 Aris Thessalonikis – Levadiakos win.
- 2024-11-03: Aris Thessalonikis 3–1 Levadiakos – Aris win.
- 2023-01-11 (Cup 1/8 final): Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 Levadiakos – Aris win.
Within these five, Aris have 2 wins, Levadiakos 1 win, and there are 2 draws. Goals are 8–8 overall, so the wins/losses tally is the only way to separate them. The broader H2H dataset in the JSON (going back to 2018) gives Aris a 62% edge vs 38% for Levadiakos, which aligns with the prediction engine’s H2H comparison.
Market Prices
Now to the prices. Across the main bookmakers for the 1X2 market:
- Home (Levadiakos): from 2.16 to 2.50, with many around 2.30–2.45.
- Draw: roughly 2.88–3.20, most around 3.00–3.10.
- Away (Aris Thessalonikis): roughly 2.70–3.25, clustering around 3.00.
The market is making Levadiakos a marginal favourite, largely on season-long attacking numbers and home advantage. But the official model gives Levadiakos only 10% win probability, versus 90% combined for draw or Aris, and clearly recommends “draw or Aris Thessalonikis”.
If we take that advice literally, the “true” probability for double chance X2 is implied at around 90%. Yet the market prices:
- Draw at around 3.10
- Aris at around 3.00
If you convert the model’s 45%/45% split to fair odds, you get around 2.22 for each of draw and away. The market is paying much higher than that. That suggests strong theoretical value on both the draw and the Aris win, and therefore especially on any combined or double-chance angle.
Best Value Bets
Best value bets based strictly on the prediction and odds:
- Double chance: Aris Thessalonikis or Draw (X2) - Model advice: explicitly “Double chance: draw or Aris Thessalonikis”, with 90% implied probability. - Market: many books will price X2 around 1.45–1.55 given the 1X2 lines. That is still generous if you trust the model’s 90% view.
- Draw (Full Time Result) - Model probability: 45% → fair odds about 2.22. - Market: around 3.00–3.15. - That is a very strong value edge if you accept the model’s symmetry between draw and away.
- Aris Thessalonikis to win - Model probability: 45% → fair odds about 2.22. - Market: around 3.00–3.10, and up to 3.25 at some books. - With Aris’ defensive edge and Levadiakos’ current slump, the away win is a high-upside position.
Verdict: The data-driven angle is to oppose Levadiakos at short home prices. Following the official prediction, the core recommendation is Double chance: Aris Thessalonikis or Draw, with separate value on both the draw and the Aris away win in the 1X2 market.
