CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CF Pachuca welcome Guadalajara Chivas to Estadio Miguel Hidalgo on 29 August 2026 in an intriguing Liga MX Apertura - 6 clash between a side trying to climb away from the lower reaches of the table and an early-season contender for the play-offs. With Pachuca down in 14th and Chivas sitting 4th, this fixture has very different stakes for each club.

Pachuca have collected just 4 points from their first 5 matches, with a negative recent run leaving them closer to the bottom than the top of the Apertura standings. Guadalajara, by contrast, are already on 10 points from 5 games and currently tracking towards the Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals) positions, as reflected in their standings description. Add in a dominant recent head-to-head record for Chivas and this shapes up as one of the standout betting and prediction fixtures of the round.

From a betting tips perspective, this match offers a classic contrast: a strong home attacking focal point in S. Rondón against a well-balanced, efficient Chivas side led by the in-form R. Alvarado. Stats suggest a tight contest, but the probabilities and odds lean towards the visitors avoiding defeat.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Key Stats

• Pachuca are 14th with 4 points from 5 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses), scoring 7 and conceding 7.
• Guadalajara have won each of the last four Liga MX meetings between these sides, including a 2-0 home victory on 10 January 2026.
• Chivas average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match this Apertura, with 2 clean sheets in 5 games.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 14 vs 4
• Points: 4 vs 10
• Goals For: 7 vs 8
• Goals Against: 7 vs 5
• Clean Sheets: Pachuca 1 vs Guadalajara 2

In the early Apertura standings, Guadalajara Chivas clearly have the upper hand. They sit 4th with 10 points from 5 matches, having won 3, drawn 1 and lost just once, with a goal difference of +3 (8 scored, 5 conceded). Their away record is particularly solid: unbeaten on the road with 1 win and 1 draw, 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded.

Pachuca, by contrast, are struggling to find consistency. They are 14th on 4 points, with only 1 win and 1 draw from 5 games and a neutral goal difference (7 scored, 7 conceded). Worryingly, both of their defeats at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo so far have come with 5 goals conceded in just 2 home matches. While their overall scoring rate (1.4 goals per game) is respectable, defensive frailty at home and poor form make this a challenging assignment against a Chivas side trending upwards.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Key Matchups

S. Rondón vs R. Alvarado

Few individual battles will shape this match more than S. Rondón against R. Alvarado, the standout attackers for their respective sides this Apertura. Rondón has been Pachuca’s main source of goals: 5 goals in 5 appearances, all as a starter, with 403 minutes played. He has taken 15 shots with 6 on target, converted a penalty, and carries a strong average rating of 7.52. His physical presence (186 cm, 86 kg) and ability to occupy defenders makes him the obvious focal point of Pachuca’s 4-2-3-1 structure.

Alvarado, meanwhile, has been Chivas’ creative and scoring hub. In 5 appearances and 360 minutes, he has scored 2 goals, but his influence goes far beyond finishing: 225 passes with 11 key passes and an 89% accuracy underline his role as a playmaker. He also contributes defensively with 7 tackles, 1 block and 1 interception, and wins a high share of his 45 duels (26 won). Drawing 10 fouls and carrying a 7.93 rating, he is arguably the form player on the pitch. If Alvarado finds space between the lines, he can dictate the tempo and feed Chivas’ forwards, offsetting whatever damage Rondón can inflict at the other end.

O. Idrissi vs Á. Sepúlveda

Another important subplot pits O. Idrissi’s creativity against the disruptive presence of Á. Sepúlveda. Idrissi, operating from midfield for Pachuca, has 2 assists in 5 starts and 411 minutes. With 149 passes at 83% accuracy, 6 key passes and 10 successful dribbles from 23 attempts, he is the main link between midfield and attack. His 8 tackles and significant duel volume (59 total, 27 won) show he also works hard out of possession, but his primary value lies in supplying Rondón.

Sepúlveda’s numbers tell a different story. In 4 appearances (only 1 start) and 78 minutes, he has yet to score or assist, but he has drawn 5 fouls and committed just 1, while also recording 2 tackles. More importantly for this match, he already has 1 red card this season, underlining his combative, sometimes risky style. If introduced from the bench, Sepúlveda’s physicality and aerial presence could trouble a Pachuca back line that has conceded 5 goals in 2 home matches, while Idrissi’s ability to exploit any gaps left by Chivas’ aggressive forwards will be crucial to Pachuca’s hopes of breaking through.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent history between CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas has been heavily tilted in favour of the Jalisco side, especially over the last few Liga MX campaigns. Chivas have consistently found ways to win both home and away, while Pachuca have struggled to translate home advantage into results in this fixture.

• 10 January 2026: Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
• 3 November 2025: CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
• 23 February 2025: Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
• 19 October 2024: CF Pachuca 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
• 13 April 2024: CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction

All indicators point towards a difficult evening for Pachuca. Their recent form is poor, both in standings (DLLLW) and in advanced metrics: only 1 win in 5, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Their last-five form index sits at 27, compared to Chivas’ 67, and the comparison model gives Chivas a clear edge in overall strength (total index 70 vs 30).

The prediction probabilities underline that gulf. Pachuca are given just a 10% chance of victory, with the draw and Chivas win each rated at 45 out of 100. The “double chance: draw or Guadalajara Chivas” advice is consistent with both form and head-to-head trends. Chivas have been solid away from home, conceding just 0.5 goals per away game and keeping 2 clean sheets overall, while Pachuca’s home defence has leaked 2.5 goals per game.

That said, Pachuca do carry attacking threat through S. Rondón and O. Idrissi, and Chivas have conceded in 3 of their 5 matches. With both teams averaging over 1 goal scored per game and the recent H2H occasionally producing tight scorelines, a low-scoring but competitive contest is likely. Chivas’ superior balance, form and psychological edge from recent meetings should see them avoid defeat and probably edge the match.

Predicted Score: CF Pachuca 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas

CF Pachuca Recent Form

Pachuca’s recent form in this Apertura is mixed at best. They have just 1 win in 5 matches, alongside 1 draw and 3 defeats, reflecting a pattern of inconsistency. Their attack has been reasonably productive with 7 goals scored (1.4 per match), but defensive lapses — particularly at home, where they have conceded 5 times in 2 games — have cost them points. Momentum is fragile, and they come into this clash needing a statement performance to kick-start their campaign.

Guadalajara Chivas Recent Form

Chivas arrive in Pachuca on the back of a strong start. With 3 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat from 5 matches, their form line of LWDWW shows a quick recovery after an opening setback. They average 1.6 goals scored and only 1 conceded per match, with 2 clean sheets highlighting their defensive organisation. Unbeaten away from home and with an upward trajectory in performances, they look well placed to continue their positive run.

CF Pachuca Possible Starting Lineup

GK: C. Moreno or J. Eulogio; Defenders: S. Barreto, Eduardo Bauermann, M. Isaís, A. Mozo; Midfielders: C. Rivera, R. Pizarro, O. Idrissi, Kenedy; Forwards: S. Rondón, I. Hernández.

Pachuca have predominantly used a 4-2-3-1 structure this season, as indicated by their most common lineup pattern. That suggests a back four anchored by Eduardo Bauermann and M. Isaís, with full-backs like S. Barreto and A. Mozo providing width. In midfield, C. Rivera’s ball-winning and passing range should complement the creativity of R. Pizarro and O. Idrissi, who will look to feed S. Rondón as the central striker. Kenedy and I. Hernández offer additional attacking outlets in wide or support roles. With no confirmed absences, coach options are relatively flexible, but the key will be tightening up defensively without blunting Rondón’s supply line.

Guadalajara Chivas Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Rangel; Defenders: M. Tapias, B. González, J. Castillo; Midfielders: L. Romo, O. Govea, R. González, R. Alvarado; Forwards: R. Marín, Á. Sepúlveda or J. Pérez.

Chivas have favoured a 3-1-4-2 shape in four of their five matches, pointing to a three-man back line led by M. Tapias and supported by defenders like B. González and J. Castillo. In midfield, L. Romo and O. Govea provide balance between ball-winning and distribution, while R. González adds experience. R. Alvarado is likely to operate in an advanced midfield or second-striker role, linking play and driving at the Pachuca defence. Up front, R. Marín offers a central reference point, with options such as Á. Sepúlveda or J. Pérez to partner him. The structure is designed to maximise Alvarado’s influence and maintain solidity, which has underpinned their strong defensive record so far.

CF Pachuca Team News

No significant absences reported.

Guadalajara Chivas Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CF Pachuca:

• None reported.

Guadalajara Chivas:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Guadalajara Chivas Draw No Bet / Double Chance (Chivas or Draw). With Pachuca given just a 10% win probability and both the draw and Chivas win rated at 45 out of 100, the value lies in siding with the visitors while protecting against a stalemate. The match-winner odds show Chivas as clear market favourites, with away prices ranging from 2.20 to 2.45 (implied probability roughly 40.8% to 45.5%), compared to Pachuca’s 2.70 to 3.10 (about 32.3% to 37.0%). That aligns with their stronger form and dominant H2H record.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 Total Goals. Both teams’ averages point towards a relatively controlled scoreline: Pachuca’s matches average 2.8 goals (1.4 for, 1.4 against), while Chivas’ average 2.6 (1.6 for, 1.0 against). Chivas have conceded more than 1 goal only once in 5 games, and several recent H2H clashes have finished 1-0 or 2-0. With bookmakers generally setting shorter odds on lower goal thresholds and the under 3.5 line often priced as a safer option, this angle is supported by both defensive data and head-to-head patterns.
• Value Tip: S. Rondón to Score Anytime. Despite Pachuca’s poor form, Rondón has 5 goals in 5 matches, averaging a goal every 80.6 minutes with 15 shots and 6 on target. He also takes penalties (1 scored from 1), increasing his scoring routes. Markets typically price home forwards from underdogs at relatively generous anytime odds compared to their actual share of team goals. With Pachuca scoring 7 times this season and Rondón responsible for the majority, backing him to score offers attractive value, especially if the main match odds have already shortened in favour of Chivas.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.