Cape Verde Shocks World Cup Predictions
Cape Verde keep ripping up the script at this World Cup. Spain couldn’t beat them. Uruguay couldn’t beat them. The so‑called minnows are still standing, and the prediction game’s players are slowly catching on.
Not slowly enough, mind. Against Spain, an extraordinary 99.65% of users in the BBC’s new predictor game backed Cape Verde to lose. They were almost universally written off. By the time Uruguay arrived, that figure had dropped, but only to 83%. The surprise package of the tournament is starting to win respect, just not at the same pace it is winning results.
The crowd-sourced wisdom is still outperforming the experts, though. Across the second round of 24 group games, the users collectively called 18 results correctly, a sharp jump from 13 in the opening round. That haul leaves them ahead of both BBC Sport predictions expert Chris Sutton and AI.
Sutton improved, moving from 12 correct outcomes in the first tranche of fixtures to 14 this time. The AI model – Microsoft Copilot Chat, asked simply to “predict the results of the second round of World Cup group games” – also sharpened up, climbing from 13 to 15 out of 24. Yet both were left chasing the users, who now sit on top of this particular table.
The final round of group matches will stretch everyone again. Scotland face Brazil. England meet Panama. Knockout fates will be sealed, and prediction reputations will rise or fall with them.
Sutton has committed to calling all 104 games at this World Cup and has already nailed his colours to the mast by predicting the finishing order in all 12 groups. The AI will keep churning out its forecasts. The users will keep tapping their screens on the BBC predictor game, choosing home, away or draw and living – or losing – with the consequences.
Key Fixtures
Here is how Sutton and AI see some of the key fixtures in the coming days.
Mexico v Czech Republic – Rotation vs Desperation
Mexico City / Thursday, 25 June / 02:00 BST
Mexico have already done the hard work. They are through to the last 32 as group winners, whatever happens here. That freedom almost certainly means sweeping changes from the side that has carried them this far.
That opens the door, at least slightly, for the Czech Republic. They need a win to have any chance of squeezing into the knockouts, and facing a rotated Mexico is as good an invitation as they could hope for.
But this is Estadio Azteca. Mexico’s home. The same stadium where they thumped South Africa, the same altitude that drains visiting legs and lungs. As Sutton’s 5 live commentary partner Alistair Bruce-Ball put it, this is about pride as much as progression. Mexico will want to put on a show for their own.
Sutton still leans towards a shock: he goes 0-1 to the Czech Republic. The AI sees goals for both sides but the same outcome: 1-2 to the Czechs.
Jordan v Argentina – Messi wrapped in cotton wool
Dallas / Sunday, 28 June / 03:00
Argentina have already wrapped up the group. The real prize lies further ahead, and that changes everything for team selection.
Sutton expects Lionel Messi to sit this one out. It’s a brutal call for the Golden Boot race and for Messi’s tally as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer, but a logical one for a side with eyes on the trophy rather than the charts. His fans will not like it. His coach may not care.
Even without their captain, Argentina’s firepower should dwarf Jordan’s. Sutton sees a controlled, clinical performance, not a contest.
His verdict is emphatic: 0-3 to Argentina. The AI lands on exactly the same scoreline: 0-3.
Portugal v Colombia – Ronaldo to score, but is it enough?
Miami / Sunday, 28 June / 00:30
This one matters. Portugal need a win to top the group. Nothing else will do.
They arrive with confidence after a heavy win over Uzbekistan, but Colombia present a very different challenge – organised, aggressive, and far less likely to fold. The stakes, and the standard, are higher.
Sutton tilts towards drama. He expects Cristiano Ronaldo to score both of Portugal’s goals, but not to walk away with the only story of the night. He backs Colombia to dig in, to counter, and to take something from the game.
His call: a 2-2 draw, a blow to Portugal’s hopes of topping the section. The AI disagrees, backing Portugal to edge it 1-2 and claim first place.
Ronaldo, Sutton jokes, will simply carry on until the 2040 World Cup anyway.
Panama v England – Tuchel under pressure to respond
New York / Saturday, 27 June / 22:00
Thomas Tuchel’s England felt the full swing of tournament mood against Ghana. The half-time team talk that had been lauded after the comeback against Croatia fell flat this time. The reaction, from manager and players, now becomes the story.
Sutton expects changes, but not a full reset. England need a win. Harry Kane, he believes, will keep his place up front. Out wide, though, he anticipates a shake-up, with Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford likely to start.
He wants Saka in from the first whistle instead of Noni Madueke. At left-back, he argues Nico O’Reilly must come in for Djed Spence, describing O’Reilly as the more complete footballer.
Panama have been stubborn so far, losing 1-0 in both of their games. They have not been rolled over by anyone. Sutton still expects England to find another gear. Kane, he insists, will respond after that glaring late miss against Ghana and rediscover his finishing touch.
His scoreline reflects that belief: 0-3 to England. The AI backs the same margin and the same outcome: 0-3.
The predictor tables will move again once these games are done. The question now is simple: when the final group ball is kicked, will it be Sutton, the AI, or the crowd that saw this World Cup most clearly?
