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Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Atlético Ottawa welcome Supra du Quebec to TD Place Stadium on 20 September 2026 in a Canadian Premier League Group Stage clash that could have major implications at both ends of the table. The hosts are pushing to solidify a top-three finish, while the visitors are fighting to stay clear of the bottom places.

Ottawa sit 3rd with 34 points from 22 matches, boasting one of the stronger home records in the division. Supra du Quebec, meanwhile, are 7th on 22 points from 21 games and have struggled for consistency, particularly defensively. Recent meetings between these sides have been open, high-scoring affairs, adding intrigue to this latest encounter in Ottawa.

With Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec already producing some of the most entertaining fixtures in the Canadian Premier League this year, this match sets up as another key test of Ottawa’s home strength against Supra’s dangerous but vulnerable attack.

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Key Stats

  • Atlético Ottawa are 3rd with 34 points from 22 matches, winning 7 of 11 at home and losing just once at TD Place Stadium in the league.
  • The last three meetings in all competitions have all seen at least four goals, including a 5-3 Ottawa home win on 9 June 2026 and a 3-3 draw in the Canadian Championship on 11 August 2026.
  • Season statistics show Ottawa averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match, while Supra average 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded, underlining the potential for another open game.

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 3 vs 7
  • Points: 34 vs 22
  • Goals For: 34 vs 29
  • Goals Against: 37 vs 38
  • Clean Sheets: Atlético Ottawa 4 (tournament statistics) vs Supra du Quebec 1 (tournament statistics)

In the league table, Atlético Ottawa have built a clear advantage. With 10 wins from 22 matches and a strong home return (7 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss, 21 goals scored, 13 conceded), they look like a genuine top-end side. Their negative goal difference (-3) reflects some heavy defeats away from home, but at TD Place they have been one of the most reliable outfits.

Supra du Quebec, 7th with 22 points from 21 games, have been far more erratic. They have 6 wins but already 11 losses, and their defence is the second-worst in the league table snapshot here, conceding 38 goals. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, scoring 18 and conceding 21 — capable of troubling opponents, but often too open. The clean sheet numbers (4 vs 1 across the competition) also underline Ottawa’s relative defensive edge.

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Key Matchups

B. Tabla vs L. Kwemi

Ballou Jean-Yves Tabla is a central attacking figure for Atlético Ottawa. Across 22 appearances (21 starts), he has scored 5 goals and added 1 assist. He averages 19 shots with 13 on target, showing a good conversion and accuracy profile, and contributes 9 key passes from 278 total passes at 85% accuracy. His dribbling (26 attempts, 12 successful) and 25 fouls drawn underline how often he carries the ball into dangerous zones.

For Supra du Quebec, Loïc Adrien Kwemi offers a similar goal threat. In 19 appearances (15 starts), he has also scored 5 goals, with 22 shots and 11 on target. He is more involved as a creator than his assist tally (0) suggests, with 13 key passes from 210 passes at 81% accuracy. His dribbling volume is high (52 attempts, 24 successful), and he engages in 107 duels, winning 45. This duel between Tabla’s efficiency and Kwemi’s high-volume attacking involvement could decide where the goals come from.

N. Fleuriau Chateau vs D. Choinière

Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau has been a highly productive attacking option for Ottawa despite limited minutes. In just 9 appearances (7 starts, 368 minutes), he has 3 goals and 2 assists, with 14 shots (6 on target). His direct output — averaging a goal contribution roughly every 74 minutes — makes him a major impact player whether starting or coming off the bench. He also adds a pressing and defensive element with 3 tackles and 2 blocks.

For Supra du Quebec, David Choinière is the creative hub in midfield. In 20 appearances (16 starts, 803 minutes), he has delivered 4 assists, with 19 key passes and 305 total passes at 86% accuracy. He also contributes defensively with 9 tackles and 5 interceptions, and draws 10 fouls, often helping Supra progress up the pitch. The contrast between Fleuriau Chateau’s end-product and Choinière’s chance creation will be key: if Ottawa can limit service from Choinière, Supra’s attack may struggle to match Ottawa’s scoring efficiency.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These two sides have already produced a compelling mini-rivalry in 2026 across league and cup, with goals and momentum swings in almost every match.

  • 16 August 2026: Supra du Quebec 1-2 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
  • 11 August 2026: Atlético Ottawa 3-3 Supra du Quebec (Canadian Championship)
  • 8 July 2026: Supra du Quebec 3-1 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Championship)
  • 9 June 2026: Atlético Ottawa 5-3 Supra du Quebec (Canadian Premier League)
  • 19 April 2026: Supra du Quebec 0-1 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Prediction

Stats suggest Atlético Ottawa have the edge, particularly at home. They have already beaten Supra twice in the league this year (1-0 away and 5-3 at home) and drew a wild 3-3 at TD Place in the Canadian Championship. Supra’s only recent success in the series came in a 3-1 home win in July’s cup tie, but their defensive record over the season remains a concern.

The prediction model gives Ottawa a 45% chance of victory, with the draw also at 45% and Supra just 10%. That points towards a match where the hosts control territory and chances, but the high draw probability reflects Ottawa’s occasional defensive lapses and Supra’s ability to score — they average 1.8 goals per game away from home in league play. Ottawa’s home defensive average of 1.2 goals conceded, combined with 1.9 scored, leans towards a narrow home win in a game that may still see both teams on the scoresheet.

Predicted Score: Atlético Ottawa 2-1 Supra du Quebec

Atlético Ottawa Recent Form

In the league standings snapshot, Ottawa’s recent form reads LDWLW, reflecting a mixed but generally positive run: three wins, two defeats and one draw across their last five in the table context. More broadly in competition statistics, they have shown the capacity to string results together, with a best winning streak of three and a solid home record underpinning their position.

Supra du Quebec Recent Form

Supra du Quebec’s recent league form line is LLWDL, indicating three defeats in their last five table matches, with one win and one draw. Their wider competition form shows a team that oscillates between promising attacking displays and costly defensive collapses, with no extended winning streaks and a tendency to concede late goals.

Atlético Ottawa Possible Starting Lineup

GK: T. Crampton; Defenders: J. Dunn-Johnson, Sergei Kozlovskiy, W. Timóteo, Loïc Cloutier; Midfielders: M. Aparicio, D. Gutiérrez, G. Antinoro, K. Habibullah; Forwards: B. Tabla, N. Fleuriau Chateau.

Atlético Ottawa have used a variety of shapes this season, most frequently 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1. With defenders like J. Dunn-Johnson and Sergei Kozlovskiy, and midfield control from M. Aparicio and G. Antinoro, they can switch between a back three and back four. In attack, B. Tabla is the focal point, supported by creators such as K. Habibullah and the efficient N. Fleuriau Chateau. Depth options like E. García and J. Assi add further pace and pressing from the bench.

Supra du Quebec Possible Starting Lineup

GK: [not available]; Defenders: D. Abzi, C. Auguste, M. Chretien; Midfielders: Alessandro Biello, D. Choinière, S. Rea, A. Sissoko; Forwards: L. Kwemi, I. Conde.

Squad data for Supra du Quebec is incomplete, but their preferred formation in competition statistics is 4-2-3-1. Defenders D. Abzi, C. Auguste and M. Chretien provide a physically strong but card-prone back line. In midfield, Alessandro Biello, D. Choinière and S. Rea offer good passing numbers and creativity, while A. Sissoko adds defensive balance. Up front, L. Kwemi and I. Conde supply the main goal threat, supported by wide or central attacking roles depending on the exact setup.

Atlético Ottawa Team News

No significant absences reported.

Supra du Quebec Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Atlético Ottawa:

  • None reported.

Supra du Quebec:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Atlético Ottawa in the double chance (home win or draw). The prediction probabilities give Ottawa a 45% chance of winning and the draw another 45%, with Supra at just 10%. Combined with Ottawa’s strong home record (7 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss) and their positive head-to-head league results, the double chance on the hosts looks a solid base option.
  • Goals Tip: Both teams to score. Ottawa average 1.5 goals for and 1.7 against per match, while Supra average 1.4 for and 1.8 against. All five recent H2H meetings in 2026 have seen both sides score, including 5-3, 3-3 and 3-1 scorelines. With both defences conceding well over a goal per game, BTTS is strongly supported by the numbers.
  • Value Tip: Anytime goalscorer L. Kwemi or B. Tabla. Both forwards have 5 league goals this season. Tabla is Ottawa’s main attacking outlet with consistent minutes and penalty responsibility (1 scored from 1), while Kwemi combines 5 goals with 22 shots and 52 dribble attempts, indicating a central role in Supra’s attack. Given the high-scoring nature of this fixture historically, backing one of these two to find the net offers attractive upside.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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