Match Context
Alaves host Osasuna at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga on 5 April 2026. In the league phase (after 29 rounds), Alaves sit 15th with 31 points and a goal difference of -11, while Osasuna are 11th with 37 points and a goal difference of -1. Both are still looking to secure safety and push toward mid‑table, making this a high‑stakes fixture in the lower half of the table.
The Data Deep-Dive (Overall)
Across the entire campaign, Alaves have 8 wins, 7 draws and 14 defeats from 29 matches. Their attack averages 1.0 goals per match (30 scored), while conceding 1.4 (41 against). At home they are more solid: 5 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses, with 17 goals for and 16 against – only 1.14 goals conceded per home game.
Osasuna have been slightly stronger overall: 10 wins, 7 draws, 12 losses. They score 1.2 goals per match (34 total) and concede 1.2 (35). The big split is home vs away: Osasuna are excellent at home (8-4-2, 25:16 goals) but fragile away (2-3-10, 9:19). Away from Pamplona they score only 0.6 per game and concede 1.27.
Recent form indicators in the prediction model give Osasuna a small edge: comparison “form” is 58% vs 42%, and the total team strength metric is 53.5% Osasuna vs 46.5% Alaves. However, the attacking comparison slightly favours Alaves (60% vs 40%), while defensive metrics lean to Osasuna (61% vs 39%). That fits the profile: Alaves are relatively direct and efficient at home, Osasuna more balanced but much less productive on the road.
Alaves’ last five (overall) show strong attacking output (9 goals, 1.8 per match) but a leaky defence (11 conceded, 2.2 per match). Osasuna’s last five are more controlled (6 scored, 7 conceded). The prediction engine’s Poisson model surprisingly tilts 62% toward Alaves in pure goal‑expectation terms, even though the overall winner model prefers Osasuna not to lose.
Injury and suspension news clearly hits Alaves harder. They are missing F. Garces (suspended), C. Protesoni (muscle injury) and D. Suarez (yellow card suspension), with L. Boyé – their 9‑goal top scorer – listed as questionable (foot injury). Osasuna only have I. Benito out (knee injury). If Boyé does not start, Alaves lose a large share of their attacking ceiling.
H2H Analysis – The Atomic Five (and more)
Focusing on the most recent competitive clashes:
- 20 Dec 2025, Estadio El Sadar: Osasuna 3-0 Alaves – clear home win for Osasuna.
- 24 May 2025, Estadio de Mendizorroza: Alaves 1-1 Osasuna – draw.
- 8 Dec 2024, Estadio El Sadar: Osasuna 2-2 Alaves – draw.
- 4 Mar 2024, Estadio El Sadar: Osasuna 1-0 Alaves – Osasuna win.
- 1 Oct 2023, Estadio de Mendizorroza: Alaves 0-2 Osasuna – Osasuna away win.
Across these last five La Liga meetings, Osasuna have 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats, with a goals ratio of 9-3 in their favour. Extending further back in the JSON, there are also friendlies where Alaves have nicked wins, but in league play Osasuna have clearly had the upper hand, including two straight victories in Vitoria (0-2 in 2023 and the 1-1 draw in 2025 where they avoided defeat again).
The Prediction Model vs Market Odds
The official prediction model gives Alaves just 10% win probability, with draw and Osasuna each at 45%. Advice: “Double chance: draw or Osasuna” and winner comment “Osasuna – Win or draw”. That implies a 90% combined chance that Alaves do not win.
Market odds for the 1X2 are roughly:
- Home (Alaves): 2.38–2.53
- Draw: 2.89–3.20
- Away (Osasuna): 2.71–3.12
Taking Pinnacle as a reference (around 2.53 home, 3.15 draw, 3.12 away), the implied probabilities (before margin) are roughly:
- Home: about 39–40%
- Draw: about 31–32%
- Away: about 32–33%
Normalised, the market is close to a 40/30/30 type split, making Alaves a slight favourite. This strongly contradicts the model’s 10/45/45, which heavily disfavors a home win.
That contrast creates clear value on the model’s side: if Alaves are only 10% likely to win, backing against them at “pick‑em” prices becomes attractive.
Value Bets and Verdict
- Main Value Bet – Double Chance: Draw or Osasuna
- Model probability: 90% (draw 45% + away 45%).
- Market equivalent: if Alaves are 40% to win, then “X2” is 60%.
- Fair odds at 60% would be about 1.67.
- Bookmakers usually price “Draw or Osasuna” around 1.50–1.60 in this type of 1X2 distribution. Given the model’s much higher 90% confidence in X2, anything around 1.55–1.65 on “Draw or Osasuna” looks like strong value.
- Secondary Angle – Osasuna Draw No Bet (DNB)
- The model rates away and draw equally (45% each), so Osasuna are at least as strong as Alaves here. Market away odds around 2.90–3.10 translate into DNB prices roughly around 2.00–2.10. With Alaves only 10% in the model, Osasuna DNB around evens would be a positive‑EV position, limiting downside to stake refund if it ends level.
- Caution on 1X2 Home Win
- With the model giving Alaves just 10% and the market paying only around 2.50 (implied ~40%), the home win looks overpriced in terms of risk – there is no value in siding with Alaves at current quotes.
Final Prediction
Aligning strictly with the official advice and probability split, the recommended play is:
- Primary pick: Double chance – Draw or Osasuna (X2).
- Leaning slightly toward a low‑scoring stalemate or narrow Osasuna success, but from a value perspective the safest and most data‑aligned angle is to oppose the home win via X2.
