This Pro League fixture at Kingdom Arena sets up as a classic top-versus-lower-half clash, but with an interesting subplot: Al Kholood have quietly improved away from home, while Al-Hilal are defending an unbeaten league season (19W–8D–0L). The reverse fixture ended 3-1 to Al-Hilal, and across three head-to-heads in the last two seasons the Riyadh giants have scored 12 goals against Al Kholood, underlining a clear stylistic and quality gap.
Two key outfield players to watch are Rúben Neves for Al-Hilal and Ramiro Enrique for Al Kholood. Neves is the league’s standout controller, with 9 goals, 6 assists and 1,775 completed passes at 89% accuracy, dictating tempo and set pieces. Enrique is Al Kholood’s primary weapon, with 15 league goals from 25 appearances and 3/3 from the penalty spot; if the visitors are to make this competitive, it almost certainly runs through him. The “hot stat” coming in: Al-Hilal remain the only side in the Pro League without a single league defeat this season (27 games, 0 losses), while averaging 2.6 goals scored per match.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood prediction
From a betting perspective, the 1x2 market is almost unplayable with Al-Hilal around 1.11–1.17 to win. The better value angle lies in a handicap aligned with their historical dominance and current offensive metrics. Al-Hilal average 2.6 goals per game, concede just 0.9, and have beaten Al Kholood by margins of 3, 4 and 2 goals (5-1, 4-2, 3-1) in their last three meetings. Al Kholood concede 1.9 goals per game across the season, and 2.1 per game at home – a clear indicator they struggle to absorb pressure against top attacks.
Al-Hilal’s recent five-match sample (13 scored, 6 conceded) shows their attack at 100% efficiency rating in the prediction model, while Al Kholood’s defensive rating over the last five is just 15% (11 conceded in 5). That combination supports a comfortable home win by multiple goals rather than a tight contest. With the league model giving Al-Hilal a 66.4% overall edge in the comparison index and 72% Poisson advantage, a strong Asian Handicap position on the hosts is justified.
In terms of playing style, Al-Hilal are a high-possession, territory-dominant side, often using a 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1 with Neves orchestrating and Malcom/Salem Al Dawsari providing width. Their card profile is moderate: yellow cards spread mainly between minutes 16–75, and only 2 reds all season, both late in games. That suggests controlled aggression rather than reckless challenges, which usually helps them keep structure and avoid chaotic game states that could favour the underdog.
Al Kholood, by contrast, show a more reactive profile. Their formations (primarily 4-4-2, 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3) indicate flexibility, but their defensive metrics are poor: 50 goals conceded in 27 matches (1.9 per game). They commit more fouls and carry higher card risk – Hattan Bahbri alone has 6 yellows and 1 red, with 35 fouls committed. That ill-discipline, especially under sustained pressure at Kingdom Arena, can lead to dangerous set-piece situations against them and potential numerical disadvantages. All of this reinforces a scenario where Al-Hilal control possession, rack up chances and corners, and eventually break down Al Kholood repeatedly.
Hot Tips
- Al-Hilal -1.75 Asian Handicap
- Over 2.5 goals
- Yes, both teams to score
- Over 8.5 corners
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood Prediction and Key Stats
KEY STATS SECTION
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood key stats
- Streak: Al-Hilal are unbeaten in the league this season (19W–8D–0L) with a 13-game winning streak at their peak; Al Kholood’s season form includes a 6-game losing streak and only 8 wins from 27.
- H2H: In the last three league meetings, Al-Hilal have a 3–0–0 record vs Al Kholood, scoring 12 and conceding 4 (results: 4-2, 5-1, 3-1).
- Defense/Clean sheets: Al-Hilal have 11 clean sheets in 27 matches; Al Kholood have only 3 clean sheets and have failed to score in 10 games.
This match pits the league’s most consistent side against one of its most volatile. Al-Hilal’s unbeaten run and +44 goal difference are backed by elite underlying numbers: 69 goals scored (2.6 per game) and just 25 conceded (0.9 per game). Al Kholood’s -14 goal difference and 50 goals conceded highlight a team that struggles to defend sustained pressure, particularly in the early and late phases of each half where they concede heavily.
Team Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal come into this fixture with a league form line of DWWWD in their last five, but the broader pattern is even more impressive: a long stretch of wins with only occasional draws and no losses. In their most recent head-to-head against Al Kholood (away, December 2025), they won 3-1 after a 1-1 first half, showing both resilience and second-half dominance. Across their last five league games, they have scored 13 (2.6 per game) and conceded 6, underscoring a front line that consistently creates high-quality chances.
At home, Al-Hilal are particularly strong: 10 wins and 4 draws from 14, 32 scored and only 11 conceded. Their biggest home win this season is 4-0, and they regularly push the scoreline out once they go in front, thanks to the depth of their attacking options (Malcom, Salem Al Dawsari, Marcos Leonardo, Darwin Núñez, Karim Benzema). Their only slight vulnerability is occasional lapses in concentration in the opening and closing 15 minutes, where a higher proportion of their goals conceded occur.
Al Kholood
Al Kholood’s overall form is erratic: “DLLWW” in the table snapshot, and the longer-season pattern shows clusters of defeats broken by short winning bursts. In their last five, they have scored 9 and conceded 11 (1.8 for, 2.2 against), which matches their season-long defensive issues. Their away record is relatively better than their home record (5 wins away vs 3 at home), with 20 goals scored and 20 conceded on the road – suggesting they are more comfortable counter-attacking than breaking down low blocks.
The last meeting with Al-Hilal (home, December 2025) finished 1-3 despite Al Kholood scoring first-half. Earlier, in Riyadh in February 2025, they lost 5-1 after trailing 4-0 at half-time – a sign that when they open up against elite opposition, the game can get away from them quickly. Their attacking threat is real through Ramiro Enrique (15 goals) and supporting runners like Bahbri, but their defensive structure and discipline often unravel under sustained pressure.
Possible Starting Lineups
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction lineups
- GK: Y. Bounou
- DF: T. Hernández, K. Koulibaly, Pablo Marí, Moteb Al Harbi
- MF: Rúben Neves, S. Milinković-Savić, Mohamed Kanno
- FW: Malcom, Marcos Leonardo, Salem Al Dawsari
Al-Hilal have rotated systems this season, but the most used shape is a 4-3-3, which fits this XI. Bounou is the clear first-choice goalkeeper at this level. The back four pairs the experience and aerial dominance of Koulibaly and Pablo Marí with Theo Hernández’s attacking thrust on the left and Moteb Al Harbi’s balance on the right. In midfield, Neves anchors and dictates, Milinković-Savić offers box-to-box presence and aerial threat, while Kanno adds physicality and vertical passing.
Up front, Malcom and Salem Al Dawsari are both in the league’s top tier for assists (8 each) and carry strong dribbling and chance-creation metrics, ideal for stretching Al Kholood’s back line. Marcos Leonardo, with 11 league goals, is a logical choice as central striker, though Darwin Núñez or Benzema could also start; Leonardo’s work rate and movement between the lines make him a strong fit against a deeper block. Expect a 4-3-3 that can morph into 4-1-4-1 in defensive phases, with Malcom and Salem tracking back.
Al Kholood Prediction lineups
- GK: J. Cozzani
- DF: S. Pinas, N. Gyömbér, E. Utkus, J. Al Dosari
- MF: K. N'Doram, J. Buckley, Abdulrahman Al Safari
- FW: Hattan Bahbri, Ramiro Enrique, M. Maolida
Al Kholood have most frequently lined up in a 4-4-2 but also used 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3; away at a dominant side like Al-Hilal, a compact 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 hybrid makes sense. Cozzani is a logical pick in goal. The back four leans on the experience of Gyömbér and Pinas, with Utkus adding physical presence and Al Dosari providing width. In midfield, N'Doram protects the back line, Buckley offers energy and ball progression, and Al Safari contributes composure and passing.
Further forward, Bahbri starts from the flank but drifts inside, carrying both creative and disciplinary risk (6 yellows, 1 red). Maolida offers pace and direct running on the opposite side. Enrique leads the line as the focal point, both as a finisher (15 goals) and as a target for transitions. Expect Al Kholood to defend in a mid-to-low block, then look to spring Enrique and the wide forwards quickly when they recover the ball.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood (H2Hs) Head-to-Head Stats
StatisticAl-Hilal Saudi FCAl Kholood
Goals
12
4
Total shots
18
10
Free kicks
20
18
Corner kicks
17
9
Total fouls
28
34
Pass accuracy (%)
87
79
Interceptions
19
22
Offsides
7
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood score prediction: 3-1
A 3-1 scoreline balances Al-Hilal’s attacking superiority with Al Kholood’s ability to nick goals, especially late. Al-Hilal average 2.6 goals per game and have scored 4, 5 and 3 in their last three meetings with Al Kholood, so projecting them to hit three at home is conservative but realistic. Al Kholood average 1.3 goals per game and have found the net in all three recent H2Hs (2, 1 and 1 goals respectively), plus they score a high share of their goals in the final 15 minutes, when Al-Hilal occasionally ease off. That points to a scenario where Al-Hilal build a comfortable lead but concede once, either on transition or from a set piece, landing on 3-1.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite
- Moneyline Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.15 | Al Kholood 13.00 (range 10.50–15.00 across books)
- Draw 8.00–9.75
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.55 | Under 2.5 2.40 (indicative pricing based on goal lines and H2H trends)
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.80 (indicative)
My take on the Match
Main pick and match outlook
The market is correctly pricing Al-Hilal as overwhelming favourites, but the straight home win is too short to offer meaningful value. The data strongly supports a handicap approach: Al-Hilal have a +44 goal difference, score 2+ in 21 of 27 games, and have beaten Al Kholood by 2+ in all three recent H2Hs. Al Kholood concede 1.9 per game and struggle to maintain defensive concentration against top-tier attacks, while also carrying significant card risk that could tilt the game further towards Al-Hilal.
Main betting pick: Al-Hilal -1.75 Asian Handicap. This line allows for a half-win at a two-goal victory (e.g. 2-0, 3-1) and a full win at three goals or more (3-0, 4-1, 4-0). Given Al-Hilal’s scoring profile and their historical margins in this matchup, this offers better risk-reward than the 1x2.
Secondary angles: Over 2.5 goals aligns with both teams’ scoring and conceding trends, and BTTS has a decent chance given Al Kholood’s 1.5 goals per game away and Enrique’s form. Corners should also trend high with Al-Hilal dominating territory; an Over 8.5 corners line is well supported by their attacking volume and crossing patterns. Overall, expect Al-Hilal to control possession, create a high shot and corner count, and win by a clear margin, with a realistic path to our 3-1 projected score.
