2026 World Cup Semifinal Favorites: Latest Odds and Predictions
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will feature 48 teams battling through a demanding knockout phase. Only four will advance beyond the first 100 matches, securing a place in the semifinals and edging closer to lifting soccer’s ultimate prize.
Who stands out as the top contenders after the initial group games? Below are the most recent odds from FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 17, showing which countries are favored to reach the final four.
Odds to Reach the Semifinals
- France: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
- Spain: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
- England: +165 (bet $10 to win $26.50 total)
- Argentina: +180 (bet $10 to win $28 total)
- Portugal: +195 (bet $10 to win $29.50 total)
- Brazil: +270 (bet $10 to win $37 total)
- Germany: +330 (bet $10 to win $43 total)
- Netherlands: +390 (bet $10 to win $49 total)
- Belgium: +440 (bet $10 to win $54 total)
- Norway: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
- USA: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
- Colombia: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
- Mexico: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
- Morocco: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
- Uruguay: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
- Switzerland: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
- Japan: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
- Austria: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
- Croatia: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
- Ecuador: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
- Ivory Coast: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
- Sweden: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
- Canada: +1900 (bet $10 to win $200 total)
Top Contenders and Recent Shifts
The leading seven countries—Spain, France, Portugal, England, Argentina, Brazil, and Germany—all have odds under +330. These teams boast a combined total of 39 World Cup semifinal appearances and include six past champions, underscoring why they dominate predictions.
Following Lionel Messi’s historic hat trick in Argentina’s 3-0 victory over Algeria, their chances improved noticeably, moving from +260 to +180. Norway also climbed to +600 after a strong 4-1 win against Iraq. On the other hand, Portugal’s odds slipped from +175 to +190 after a lackluster draw with DR Congo.
Underdogs to Watch
Morocco shocked the world in 2022 by becoming the first African nation to reach the semifinals, despite being 200-1 outsiders for the title. Their odds to make the semifinals then were 50-1, rewarding bettors handsomely. This year, Morocco’s odds have tightened to +800 following a competitive draw with Brazil, suggesting they might threaten once more.
Other long shots like Canada (+1900) and Sweden (+1800) might surprise, but the path will be tough given the depth of quality across the field.
