Premier League Predictions: Arsenal Favored, United's Title Hope
The new season hasn’t even kicked off and the verdict is already in: this is Arsenal’s title to lose. Almost everyone says so. One voice, though, is still shouting for Manchester United.
Across a panel of columnists, the predictions come thick, fast and often contradictory – from Arsenal dominance and a Manchester United title surge to doom for Hull, Ipswich and Coventry, and a Fulham experiment with Alvaro Arbeloa that many expect to combust.
Title race: Arsenal’s to stroll… unless United crash the party
Asked the most basic pre-season question – who wins the league? – the answers barely deviate.
Sarah Winterburn doesn’t even pretend it’s close. For her, “only the unhinged” would go for anyone but Arsenal after a summer of stability and the marquee arrival of Bruno Guimaraes. She sees no rival within 10 points.
Matt Stead calls it “Phase five” of the Arteta project and joins the chorus. Dave Tickner, who tentatively tipped Arsenal last season, does so again “with his full chest” this time, arguing they can finally cash in now that everyone else is stuck in year-one rebuild mode.
Ian Watson, Jason Soutar, Lewis Oldham, Michael Lee and Nestor Watach all fall in line. Arsenal, Arsenal, Arsenal. Stability, evolution, fewer unknowns, rivals in disarray. Samuel Bannister edges slightly more cautious, but still says Arsenal “have to be the favourites”, likening them to PSG once they finally cracked the Champions League code.
Only John Nicholson refuses to bow to the North London consensus. He goes for Manchester United, pointing out they were “the best team in the league under Carrick” and insisting that’s not radical at all. In his eyes, “them’s the facts”.
Top four: Chelsea revival, City regression, and a wild guessing game
If the title race looks oddly straightforward on paper, the rest of the top four is anything but.
Winterburn keeps it simple: Chelsea, a long way back from Arsenal, then Liverpool and Manchester City, with Manchester United in fifth as a bonus prediction.
Stead goes with “Cobham Current Gen” Chelsea, then City and Liverpool. Nicholson has Chelsea and City too, but throws Aston Villa into the Champions League spots.
Tickner all but shrugs at the question. He picks Chelsea, Liverpool, City, and admits he has “almost zero confidence” in any order. Watson echoes the uncertainty, reluctantly settling on City, Chelsea and Tottenham and warning his answer could change in 10 minutes.
Soutar opts for Chelsea, City and Spurs. Oldham says City, Chelsea, Liverpool, with City missing out on the title by a similar margin to last season and Liverpool just edging United for fourth.
Michael Lee also backs Chelsea, City and Liverpool, with a side note that Spurs could sneak in “with a fair wind”. Watach goes City, Liverpool, United, and has Chelsea fifth, which he reckons will be enough for Champions League football anyway.
Bannister sees Liverpool, City and Chelsea behind champions Arsenal, tipping Alexander Isak under Andoni Iraola to lift Liverpool, and a Europe-free Chelsea to capitalise on a clear schedule.
The only real agreement? No one has a clue, and everyone knows it.
Relegation: promoted trio in peril, and Fulham firmly in the crosshairs
At the other end, the knives are out for the newcomers.
Ipswich, Coventry and Hull City appear so often it starts to feel cruel. Winterburn sends all three straight back down and admits Fulham and Crystal Palace intrigue her, but she can’t quite argue they’re worse than that trio.
Stead is certain Hull are gone and sees Coventry eventually following, but he has Ipswich surviving by “initiating the Leeds Protocol” – signing a squad of six-footers – and tips Sunderland to be “xG’d”.
Nicholson also dumps Hull, then throws in Newcastle and Palace, both suffering new-manager collapses. Tickner doesn’t bother with nuance: “the promoted teams” is his answer, calling this group “just Burnleys” without a Sunderland or Leeds-style survivor among them.
Watson: Ipswich, Hull, Coventry. Soutar: Fulham – “you have to fear for them” – plus Ipswich (“rubbish”) and Hull (“proper rubbish”). Oldham has Hull and Ipswich as “certainties” but thinks Coventry survive and instead sends Fulham down in 18th.
Michael Lee spares Ipswich and instead dooms Sunderland, Coventry and Hull, warning that Sunderland’s European distraction and last year’s overachievement could drag them under. Watach again goes for all three promoted clubs, calling it a return to the “grim and concerning emerging norm”.
Bannister completes the pile-on: Ipswich, Hull, Coventry. He expects Coventry to give it the best shot of the three and tips Palace as the existing club most likely to flirt with danger.
Surprise packages: Leeds hype, Newcastle redemption, and a nostalgic question
“Pleasant surprise” feels almost old-fashioned now, but the answers still come.
Winterburn, a Huddersfield Town fan, reluctantly nominates Leeds United for a top-eight finish after what she sees as smart recruitment. Stead pushes Bournemouth and Palace into the top half.
Nicholson goes big: Leeds to finish sixth, backed by a new goalkeeper, centre-back, midfielder and striker.
Tickner wonders if we’ve all forgotten how to be happy for anyone else and says the only true “pleasant surprises” now are when Spurs or United are hilariously bad. Taking the question at face value, he picks Palace to be “Absolutely Fine”, Brentford-style, and adds that Chelsea as genuine title contenders wouldn’t really count as “pleasant” given their spending.
Watson says Leeds will be “surprising if not pleasant”. Soutar sees Chelsea as a surprise with a top-two finish, but calls Coventry’s 15th place the nicer story. Oldham again leans towards Leeds sneaking into the top 10, with Coventry surviving but not scaling Sunderland’s heights.
Michael Lee fancies Forest to get back into Europe, with Leeds “Winning the Window” but perhaps better suited to lower expectations. Watach is fully sold on Daniel Farke’s second-half-of-last-season Leeds and talks up a Conference League push.
Bannister looks north to Newcastle. He doesn’t believe they can be as underwhelming as last season and thinks the negativity around their departures overlooks some “interesting young replacements” who can push them back into the top half.
Golden Boot: Haaland, Haaland, and… Haaland
On the question of goals, there is almost no debate.
Winterburn: Erling Haaland, with Isak second. Stead: Haaland. Nicholson: Haaland, with Benjamin Sesko as runner-up. Watson, Soutar, Oldham, Michael Lee, Watach, Bannister – all Haaland, all day.
Tickner even renames him “Goalbot 3000” and has him on 12 goals in nine games en route to just under 30. He only really sees value in each-way punts behind him, floating Matheus Cunha and Cody Gakpo as long-shot fun if the latter ends up leading the line at Spurs.
There is no serious challenger in sight.
Best new signing: Trafford, Guimaraes, and the Leeds rebuild
The “most impact” signing splits opinion, but one club keeps cropping up.
Winterburn highlights Mamadou Sangare as a huge upgrade on Jordan Henderson at Brentford, yet for the bigger picture she goes with Sandro Tonali at Tottenham, predicting he lifts them from 17th to seventh.
Stead insists, “by definition”, it has to be James Trafford at Leeds, joking about a curse on Leeds goalkeepers after Lucas Perri was touted in the same category last year. He also expects Jeremy Jacquet to be a major upgrade on the version of Ibrahima Konate we saw recently.
Nicholson believes Morgan Rogers is exactly what Chelsea need. Tickner, still high on the Community Shield, plumps for Christos Tzolis. Watson backs Bruno Guimaraes to shine for Arsenal and again circles Trafford as a game-changer for Leeds simply by not being “dicey”.
Soutar refuses to split Leeds’ first batch of signings – Trafford, Harry Wilson and Tarik Muharemovic – and names the trio collectively. Oldham doubles down on Trafford as a “colossal upgrade” who could end the season as England’s No.1.
Michael Lee jokes that Jordan Henderson will be hailed for pointing and cone duty, but says United will regret not paying for Mateus Fernandes. Watach raves about Muharemovic at Leeds, calling him good enough to take them up a level and predicting Champions League links within a year.
Bannister agrees Leeds may have overpaid for Trafford but still sees him as the secure platform they’ve been crying out for.
Flops-in-waiting: Anderson under the microscope, Tottenham’s tradition, and big fees at risk
To be a true flop, you have to cost proper money. That’s the general rule.
Winterburn points straight at Elliot Anderson at Manchester City. She calls him a runner and a worker, but not enough for that level at that price.
Stead singles out Gonzalo Garcia at Fulham, warning that Fulham’s track record when spending over £20m isn’t great. Nicholson leans on Tottenham’s history of expensive misfires and slots Tonali neatly into that template.
Tickner again names Anderson as the most egregious of the huge midfielder fees. Watson fears for Alejandro Garnacho and worries about Rogers handling his price tag.
Soutar is brutal on Ronald Araujo – “proper bobbins” – and also sees Victor Munoz flopping at Liverpool. Oldham calls £50m for Andrey Santos “A LOT”. Michael Lee labels Anderson’s £116m fee “extortionate” and wonders if he’s joined City at exactly the wrong time.
Watach can’t get past Rogers as the second most expensive signing in Premier League history. Bannister returns to Anderson, convinced the price tag will work against him from day one.
Bargains: Wilson for free, Tielemans for £35m, and value in a mad market
Amid the inflation, a few deals still look like theft.
Winterburn goes for Youri Tielemans at £35m, calling it a “steal”. Stead again hails Harry Wilson as a classic Leeds free transfer who will hit double figures, and even imagines Sean Steur setting up a nine-figure sale for “Newcastle 3.0” down the line.
Nicholson and Tickner both love Wilson to Leeds on a free, especially after they chased him for a fee last year. Watson also points to Wilson and Xaver Schlager as standout freebies.
Soutar sticks with Wilson but throws in Christos Tzolis and Marcos Senesi as honourable mentions. Oldham picks Christian Norgaard as a smart Everton pick-up after his superb season at Brentford.
Michael Lee flips the logic and calls Trafford a bargain despite his record fee at Leeds, arguing he’ll save them points. Watach can’t believe Hayden Hackney’s initial £16m, saying “lesser players” have gone for twice that in this market.
Bannister again likes Tielemans at £35m, while wondering if a lack of resale value muddies the “bargain” tag. He also circles Tzolis at Arsenal, noting plenty of worse wingers have gone – or will go – for more than £34m.
Player of the Year: Arsenal’s midfield machine vs Haaland’s numbers
Last season’s PFA Player of the Year, Bruno Fernandes, caught almost everyone off guard. That doesn’t stop the panel from guessing again.
Winterburn goes for Bruno Guimaraes at Arsenal, convinced he can unlock extra creativity in the champions. Declan Rice is the other big favourite: Tickner thinks a slightly lighter workload in a deeper Arsenal midfield will actually boost his impact, Watson tips him “assuming he’s had a holiday”, and Watach sees him as the potential headline-grabber in a team of shared stars.
Stead backs Bukayo Saka, World Cup hat-trick hero. Nicholson goes left-field with Elliot Anderson and names Brian Madjo as Young Player of the Year. Soutar and Michael Lee both pick David Raya.
Oldham returns to the “player from the champions” logic and again lands on Guimaraes, fresh from a good World Cup and perfectly suited as Rice’s foil. Bannister keeps it simple: if Haaland scores enough to win the Golden Boot again, he thinks the PFA award follows.
First manager out: Arbeloa on the edge, Hull’s “doomed” boss, and Sunderland nerves
This is always a brutal category, and this year is no different.
Winterburn doesn’t like the feel of Alvaro Arbeloa at Fulham and makes him her first casualty. Watson shares that concern, naming Arbeloa while noting Matthias Jaissle at Newcastle and “Diet Pep” at City could also be under early pressure.
Soutar doesn’t even bother with names for Hull. “The bloke from Hull. He is doomed.” Oldham also expects Arbeloa to go after a poor start.
Nicholson and Michael Lee both pick Sergej Jakirovic, with Lee predicting Hull’s owner will become a “Main Character” and even stir up Greece-Turkey beef with Evangelos Marinakis. Watach likens Jakirovic to a disposable horror-movie character and questions Hull’s owner’s patience.
Tickner stays loyal to his favourite angle: Oliver Glasner, because of Marinakis’ ruthless approach at Nottingham Forest. He argues Forest change managers more often than anyone and that their owner has no qualms about early sackings.
Stead tosses David Moyes into the mix almost out of frustration with the whole exercise. Bannister goes for Regis Le Bris at Sunderland, fearing second-season syndrome after he arguably did too well in year one and raised expectations too quickly.
Champions League: Barcelona, PSG and the Arsenal “science”
On the continent, the panel is split between three giants.
Winterburn and Michael Lee both land on Barcelona, with Lee adding the caveat that they need a proper centre-back next to Pau Cubarsi. Watach also picks Barca, convinced Rodri is the missing piece for the kind of control that powered Spain to the World Cup.
Nicholson and Oldham are drawn to PSG, with Oldham reluctantly siding with them over Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid. Bannister is all-in on a PSG three-peat, convinced “something’s finally clicked” for them in Europe.
Watson backs Real Madrid. Tickner and Soutar both go with Arsenal, leaning on the “science” of their progression: quarter-finals, then semis, then runners-up. The next logical step is obvious – and in their view, Arsenal are ready to take it.
And what are they most excited about?
Asked to sum up their anticipation in five words, the answers say everything about the season ahead:
“So very many new managers.”
“New managers; uncertainty, unpredictability, chaos.”
Between those two lines lies the real story of this campaign: a league braced for upheaval, a champion almost universally crowned before a ball is kicked, and a chasing pack that no one can quite pin down.
If even half of these predictions land, it’ll be some season. If they don’t, they’ll be there to laugh at – which, in truth, is half the fun.
