Premier League Predictions: Arsenal, United, and Chelsea Favorable Starts
The machines lead the humans 1-0. On paper, anyway.
Microsoft’s CoPilot stormed the BBC predictions league at the first attempt last season, outgunning Chris Sutton, his guests and thousands of readers. The rematch starts now – and the humans are in no mood to roll over.
“It was a final-day defeat for me, that is how close I came to the title,” Sutton said. “But I keep reading how AI models are going rogue and attacking each other. So, was I hacked too? It sounds like cheating to me – if so, then last season should really go down as a victory for me.”
The jokes will keep coming. The competition will not be friendly.
CoPilot’s forecasts this year were again generated by simply asking it to “predict this weekend’s Premier League results”. Sutton and this week’s guest, Manchester United fan and musician Liam Fray, have answered back with their own calls – and a few pointed opinions.
Arsenal v Coventry – Champions set the standard
Emirates Stadium, 20:00 BST
Arsenal look ominous. Champions, deep squad, and a Community Shield performance that blew Manchester City away.
“I never read too much into the Community Shield but to beat Manchester City as comprehensively as they did was hugely impressive, and shows where they are at,” Sutton said.
The Gunners have strengthened again. Bruno Guimaraes is a statement signing. Christos Tzolis, who never settled at Norwich, suddenly looks the part too. Sutton remembers the backstory: Daniel Farke once called Tzolis one of Europe’s brightest young prospects. The Norwich spell said otherwise. The years since have proved Farke right.
All of that spells trouble for newly promoted Coventry. Frank Lampard’s first day back in the top flight could hardly be harsher.
Sutton still thinks back to Norwich getting thrashed at Liverpool on opening night in 2019. This feels like that sort of mismatch. The only glimmer for Coventry? If they somehow escape with a point, the psychological lift would be enormous.
Sutton, though, is ruthless: Arsenal win, and by however many goals Mikel Arteta decides.
Sutton’s prediction: 3-0
Fray shares the sentiment, even if he has a soft spot for Coventry’s return.
“It is good to have Coventry back in the Premier League – I remember completing my Merlin sticker album when I was a kid, when they had Roy Wegerle and Steve Ogrizovic in their team,” he said. He expects them to have a decent season, just not here: “They just need to take the hit here, because this is just about as tough a start as you can get.”
Liam’s prediction: 3-0
CoPilot? No romance. No mercy.
AI’s prediction: 3-0
Hull v Manchester United – Carrick’s test starts on Humberside
MKM Stadium, 12:30
Hull are back, and they are not planning on being polite.
Assistant head coach Dean Holden laid out their approach on the Monday Night Club: direct when required, aggressive, horrible to play against. At home, on opening weekend, that can be a weapon.
As a story, Hull’s rise is already remarkable. Sergej Jakirovic dragged them from 21st in the Championship into the play-offs and then up. Now the hard part: staying in the Premier League after losing a third of their league games last season.
Sutton sees fight in them, but also fragility.
United arrive with expectations soaring after Michael Carrick’s impressive first full campaign. They have not splashed wildly this summer, yet Youri Tielemans feels like one of those calm, clever signings – in the mould of last year’s moves for Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo.
The problem? Depth. Carrick over-achieved to reach the Champions League. Those extra midweek nights will stretch a squad that, Sutton argues, still sits some distance behind Arsenal.
“I think them having European football, while Tottenham and Chelsea don’t, will have a huge bearing on the season, which is why I left United out of my top four,” he said.
He still expects them to start with three points – but he sees a battle, not a stroll.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-2
Fray, a United fan and Carrick believer, leans into the optimism.
“I am pretty excited,” he said. “Listen, we are not going to be challenging for the title because we are not at Arsenal or Manchester City’s level, but I think we will be up there – and I love Carrick. I was like ‘give him the job straight away’ when Ruben Amorim was sacked in January.”
There is bias, he admits – they play golf, they share beers – but he values what Carrick shows on the touchline.
“It means a lot when you see someone stood on the touchline who seems to care,” Fray said. He compares it to performing on stage: show people you are all-in, and they give it back.
On Hull away? He goes big.
Liam’s prediction: 0-3
He also cannot let Marcus Rashford’s situation pass without emotion.
“I love Marcus, and the fact he is one of ours, and I would love him to come back and be as good as he was for us,” he said. “If I was Marcus, I’d be thinking ‘I am going to make this work’ because of how special it could be if it does. Every part of me wants that to happen, but I don’t know if it will.”
The machine is closer to its human rival than to Fray.
AI’s prediction: 1-3
Ipswich v Sunderland – East Anglia on edge
Portman Road, 15:00
Ipswich are back, and already there is a twist. Their manager, O’Neil, is a former Norwich player. Sutton cannot resist the dig: “Where do his loyalties really lie? And has he gone to Ipswich to sabotage them?”
The joke stops there. Sutton genuinely wants Ipswich to stay up, for East Anglia’s sake. He likes their work in the market, especially Daizen Maeda from Celtic.
Maeda is the headline: relentless presser, searing pace, perfect for a counter-attacking side. “He will be the best pressing player in the Premier League bar none,” Sutton insists.
Ipswich will look at Sunderland’s template from last season – heavy recruitment after promotion, then a surge all the way into Europe – and draw hope. Leeds did something similar. The trick is knitting a new squad together quickly. That is O’Neil’s first real test.
Sunderland, though, are no soft touch. They bullied Arsenal last season in a way Sutton says he had not seen anyone else manage. They faded, but they arrive now with Granit Xhaka’s leadership and the threat of Wilson Isidor and Brian Brobbey up front.
Sutton edges towards the more settled side.
Sutton’s prediction: 0-1
Fray senses chaos instead. New season, promoted club, loud crowd. “There are going to be some goals,” he says.
Liam’s prediction: 2-2
The AI sides with the noise at Portman Road.
AI’s prediction: 2-1
Nottingham Forest v Leeds – chaos, survival and a reset
City Ground, 15:00
Nottingham Forest lived an entire decade in one season. Four managers, four different styles, a relegation fight, and a run to the Europa League semi-finals. Somehow, they stayed up.
Sutton calls them “kneejerk Nottingham Forest”, but the mood now is calmer. Oliver Glasner is in charge, Chris Wood is back fit, and his experience and goals feel vital.
Elliot Anderson’s departure leaves a gap in midfield, yet keeping Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi is a major win.
On the other side, Leeds arrive with their own vindication story. Daniel Farke kept them up last year, against plenty of doubters. Now, with Harry Wilson coming in after shining at Fulham and James Trafford added in goal, expectations have risen.
Sutton will be at the City Ground for Radio 5 Live, and he does not pretend to know exactly what is coming. Glasner used a 3-4-3 at Crystal Palace but has already said he adapts to his squad. Shape, personnel, style – all up for inspection.
“It will be very interesting to see how Forest start, and how Glasner fares. Will he still be there in September?” Sutton said.
On the pitch, he sits on the fence.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-1
Fray refuses to call three straight 3pm draws, so something has to give. He nudges it Forest’s way.
Liam’s prediction: 2-1
So does CoPilot.
AI’s prediction: 2-1
Brentford v Tottenham – De Zerbi’s Spurs under the spotlight
Gtech Community Stadium, 17:30
Spurs arrive with buzz and big expectations. They have spent with purpose.
Sandro Tonali strengthens the heart of midfield. At the back, Marcos Senesi and Jan Paul van Hecke bring bite and composure, while Micky van de Ven has signed a new deal. The squad feels thicker, tougher.
All eyes, though, will be on Roberto de Zerbi. His football demands energy and bravery. With no European football, the path to a top-six finish looks wide open.
Brentford will not roll out a red carpet. Keith Andrews had a superb first season in charge and built a team that thrived on the counter. Sutton expects a similar approach: Spurs with the ball, Brentford waiting to pounce.
Igor Thiago’s goals last season were spectacular, and with Kevin Schade in support, the Bees should not lack firepower.
Sutton cannot split them.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-1
Fray buys the Spurs hype more fully. Tonali, Mateus Fernandes, Andy Robertson, a fit-again James Maddison – he counts four big players who were not there last year and sees a different Tottenham.
Liam’s prediction: 1-2
The AI agrees with him.
AI’s prediction: 1-2
Brighton v Aston Villa – Europe bites early
Amex Stadium, 14:00
Aston Villa’s reward for last season’s surge is the Champions League. Their punishment might be what it does to this campaign.
Sutton does not see them making the top four again. Morgan Rogers has gone, Tielemans too. Johan Manzambi arrives with promise, but expecting him to instantly replace Rogers is a huge ask.
Alejandro Garnacho is another conundrum. Villa are gambling that Unai Emery can coax a consistent performance level from him. If anyone can, Sutton says, it is Emery – but that remains to be seen.
Then there is the goalkeeping drama. Zion Suzuki comes in from Japan, hungry and ready. Emiliano Martinez looked on his way to Juventus before that move collapsed. Two big characters, one shirt.
“As I had to remind Mark Chapman on the Monday Night Club, you can’t play with two goalkeepers – they changed many of the laws of the game over the summer, but not that one,” Sutton quipped.
Brighton have their own losses to absorb. Danny Welbeck and Van Hecke, the spine of last season’s team, have gone. Jack Hinshelwood, though, is tipped by Sutton to explode after a phenomenal previous campaign.
Villa started painfully slowly last season, needing six league games for a win. Sutton expects a sharper opening this time.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-2
Fray remains wary of Villa’s volatility but still leans their way, even with Rogers gone to Chelsea.
Liam’s prediction: 1-2
The AI sees a more open contest.
AI’s prediction: 2-2
Manchester City v Bournemouth – life after Pep, but not after power
Etihad Stadium, 14:00
Manchester City have been taking flak since their Community Shield performance. Some have even talked about decline.
Sutton is not buying a collapse. He does not tip them for the title, but mid-table? Forget it. The squad is still stacked. They will be right in the mix.
Bournemouth, under Marco Rose, should be adventurous. His RB Leipzig and Red Bull Salzburg sides were aggressive, front-foot, attacking teams. The question is whether he really goes toe-to-toe with City at the Etihad in his first game.
Sutton thinks he will try. That means goals. Mostly for City.
Sutton’s prediction: 4-1
Fray notes the occasion: the first game with City’s new stand fully open, a full house, a new era without Pep Guardiola. He believes that if they can get Phil Foden firing again, they remain a “force to be reckoned with”.
Liam’s prediction: 3-0
CoPilot keeps Bournemouth on the scoresheet, but only just.
AI’s prediction: 3-1
Newcastle v Liverpool – a different St James’ Park
St James’ Park, 16:30
Newcastle have changed shape in more ways than one. Matthias Jaissle has impressed Sutton, but the midfield that defined them has been gutted.
Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes are gone. Two “monsters”, as Sutton calls them, who made life miserable for opponents. Anthony Gordon’s influence has disappeared, Kieran Trippier’s experience too.
“It is sad to see,” Sutton admits. He does not write Newcastle off, but senses realism among their fans about what this season might bring.
Liverpool arrive still adapting to Andoni Iraola. Pre-season raised concerns about their defending and fitness.
“Hopefully they can run for more than half an hour now, too,” Sutton says, only half-joking.
Up front, though, he sees no problems. Alexander Isak, now in Liverpool red, will get a fierce reception from the home crowd. Sutton expects him to thrive in it – and to shine over the season.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-3
Fray feels for Newcastle supporters, who watched the post-takeover promise stall and now see key players sold. He is fascinated to see how St James’ Park reacts.
“When it is banging, it is really banging, but it is also really obvious when the mood is different,” he said. “The first few weeks of this season will be very interesting to see how things go for them.”
On Liverpool, he is bullish. If Isak settles quickly and Florian Wirtz delivers, he thinks they will look like a “different beast”.
Liam’s prediction: 1-2
The AI is more cautious.
AI’s prediction: 1-1
Fulham v Chelsea – new eras on both banks of the Thames
Craven Cottage, 20:00
Fulham face a step into the unknown. Marco Silva has gone, and with him the sense of stability that underpinned last season’s safety.
Harry Wilson’s attacking craft has departed, Raul Jimenez – who led the line so well – has gone too. In their place comes a bold youth project.
Alvaro Arbeloa takes charge and Fulham raid Real Madrid for Gonzalo Garcia and Cesar Palacios, then Bayern Munich for Swedish teenager Jonah Kusi-Asare. Talent, yes. Guarantees, none.
“If I am a Fulham fan, my concern would be that they always felt stable under Silva and I am not sure what this new approach will bring,” Sutton said. “They were never in trouble last season, but I am expecting more of a struggle this time.”
Across the river, Chelsea also start again, but with a very different mood. Xabi Alonso takes over, Cole Palmer remains the creative hub, and Morgan Rogers arrives as an exciting addition.
Sutton does not see another leap from 10th to champions, as they managed under Antonio Conte a decade ago, because the squad is not at that level. Yet he is convinced this will be a more coherent, positive Chelsea.
Alonso, he says, is “a breath of fresh air” and should start with a derby win.
Sutton’s prediction: 0-2
Fray has never been to Craven Cottage but is intrigued by the infamous “infinity pool” and jokes about tapping Felix White for tickets when United visit. On the pitch, he shares Sutton’s unease about Fulham’s direction.
“Fulham always seem to be safe and never get dragged into a relegation fight but this might be the year they struggle a bit,” he said. “I am just putting it out there, Fulham fans – keep an eye on that line, above 18th place.”
Liam’s prediction: 0-2
The AI gives Fulham a goal, but not a point.
AI’s prediction: 1-2
Across the weekend, the patterns are clear. Sutton backs Arsenal, United and Chelsea to start with wins. Fray leans into his faith in Carrick and De Zerbi. CoPilot hums along in the background, calmly producing its numbers.
Last season, the machine topped the table. The question now is simple: can the humans drag this back, or does the scoreline tilt even further towards the algorithms?
