What South Africa, South Korea, and Czech Republic Must Do to Advance from Group A at World Cup 2026
The 2026 World Cup is approaching the end of its group phase. Thirty-two out of forty-eight teams will move on to the knockout stage. The top two teams in each group earn automatic spots, while the eight best third-place teams across all groups also advance. This makes the last round of matches crucial for many teams still fighting for a chance.
Current Standings in Group A
Mexico have already secured their spot and clinched the group's top position, thanks to wins over South Africa and South Korea, as well as a better head-to-head record against South Korea, the only team that could tie them on points.
South Korea sits second with three points after winning their first match. Both South Africa and Czech Republic have one point each, keeping all three in contention for progression.
How South Korea Can Secure Advancement
South Korea only needs to avoid losing to South Africa in their final game (Thursday 25 June, 2am BST) to qualify. A victory would lift them to six points, cementing second place. Even a draw, giving them four points, should be enough since Czech Republic cannot surpass that tally. In case of a tie on points with the Czechs, South Korea's head-to-head win ensures they progress.
If South Korea loses, they risk dropping behind South Africa and must then rely on Czech Republic's result against Mexico to see if they can claim third place with three points.
What South Africa Must Do to Reach the Round of 32
Currently bottom of the group with just one point from a draw against Czech Republic, South Africa must defeat South Korea to jump ahead in the standings. Four points might be enough to finish third, depending on how Czech Republic fares against Mexico.
A loss for South Africa likely ends their tournament, while a draw leaves them on two points — probably insufficient for advancing as one of the best third-placed teams.
Czech Republic’s Path to the Knockouts
Czech Republic face the toughest challenge. They need a win over Mexico to reach four points, which would likely secure at least third place and a strong chance of advancing among the best third-place teams.
A draw would leave them on two points, which seems unlikely to be enough. If South Africa lose to South Korea, Czech Republic could retain third place with a victory.
How Ties Are Broken in Group A
When teams finish with the same points, the head-to-head record between those teams decides their ranking. If one team beat the other during group play, that team ranks higher.
If more than two teams are tied, results between those teams form a mini-league. Rankings are then decided by points within that mini-league, followed by goal difference and goals scored. Should this fail to separate teams, overall group goal difference and goals scored come next.
Additional Tie-Breakers
If teams remain inseparable, the Team Conduct Score (TCS), based on fair play, is used. Points start at zero and deductions occur for cards received:
- Yellow card: -1
- Red card from two yellows: -3
- Straight red card: -4
- Yellow followed by straight red: -5
The lower the deduction, the better the standing. If ties persist, FIFA rankings from June’s update decide who advances.
Determining the Top Eight Third-Place Teams
Third-place teams with the highest points across all groups move on. If multiple teams share the same points, goal difference decides who progresses.
Teams with four or more points usually advance. Those with three points need excellent goal difference to make it.
