Everton vs Liverpool: Premier League Clash with European Implications
Everton host Liverpool at Hill Dickinson Stadium on 19 April 2026 in a Premier League clash with significant European implications: Everton sit 8th on 47 points, Liverpool 5th on 52, both needing a result to stay in touch with the clubs above them.
Form-wise, the predictive model tilts slightly towards Everton despite Liverpool’s higher league position. Over the last five matches, Everton’s “form index” is 67% versus Liverpool’s 47%, with both sides averaging 2 goals scored per game in that span. Everton’s last-five defensive index is 50% (6 conceded, 1.2 per game), marginally better than Liverpool’s 42% (7 conceded, 1.4 per game). Across the full league campaign, Liverpool remain the more potent attack: 52 goals in 32 matches (1.6 per game) compared to Everton’s 39 (1.2 per game). However, Everton’s defensive record is slightly tighter at 1.2 goals conceded per match versus Liverpool’s 1.3, and Everton have kept 11 clean sheets to Liverpool’s 10.
At home, Everton are balanced but unspectacular: 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses (21 scored, 19 conceded). Liverpool away are volatile: 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses with 23 scored and 25 conceded, reflecting both their threat and their vulnerability on the road. The comparison model gives Everton the edge in overall form (59% vs 41%) and defence (54% vs 46%), with attack rated level at 50%-50%. The Poisson distribution model is also dead even (50%-50%), underlining how tight this derby is expected to be.
Head-to-Head
Head-to-head in the Premier League, Liverpool still hold the upper hand, but recent meetings show Everton are capable of taking points, especially at home. On 20 September 2025 at Anfield in the Premier League, Liverpool beat Everton 2-1. Earlier that year, on 2 April 2025, again in the Premier League at Anfield, Liverpool won 1-0. The most recent Goodison Park meeting was on 12 February 2025 in the Premier League, finishing 2-2. Before that, on 24 April 2024 at Goodison Park in the Premier League, Everton won 2-0. Going further back, Liverpool beat Everton 2-0 at Anfield on 21 October 2023 in the Premier League, and 2-0 again at Anfield on 13 February 2023 in the Premier League. On 3 September 2022 at Goodison Park in the Premier League, the sides drew 0-0. On 24 April 2022 at Anfield in the Premier League, Liverpool won 2-0, and on 1 December 2021 at Goodison Park in the Premier League, Liverpool won 4-1. On 20 February 2021 at Anfield in the Premier League, Everton won 2-0.
Excluding friendlies, that gives in the listed sample: Liverpool 6 wins, Everton 2 wins, and 2 draws. Crucially, at Goodison Park in the last three Premier League derbies there, Everton have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss (2-2 in February 2025, 2-0 win in April 2024, 0-0 in September 2022), indicating a much more balanced contest when Everton are at home.
Prediction Model
The prediction model assigns Everton a 35% win probability, the draw 35%, and Liverpool 30%, and explicitly flags “Win or draw” for the home side. The official advice is “Double chance: Everton or draw”, backed by the fact that Everton’s form, defensive metrics, and home context slightly outweigh Liverpool’s superior season-long attack and historical dominance.
Market prices, however, lean towards Liverpool. Across major bookmakers, Liverpool are around 2.15–2.26 away favourites, Everton are generally 3.10–3.35 at home, and the draw is around 3.40–3.75. That means the model’s 70% implied chance that Everton avoid defeat (35% home, 35% draw) is not fully reflected in odds that broadly treat Liverpool as the more likely winner.
Betting Verdict
Betting verdict: aligning strictly with the JSON prediction, the value side is on Everton’s resilience rather than a home win alone. The recommended play is:
- Primary pick: Double chance – Everton or draw.
Given both teams’ recent attacking numbers (2 goals per game each over the last five) and Liverpool’s leaky away defence, a goals-based angle is also plausible, but the official model centres on Everton avoiding defeat, and that should be the cornerstone of any betting approach to this derby.
