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Changnyeong W vs Gyeongju W: WK-League Match Preview

Changnyeong W host Gyeongju W in WK-League regular round 10 on 2026-05-30, with both sides looking to climb away from the lower reaches after poor starts. The model from the official prediction data clearly tilts the balance towards the visitors, rating Gyeongju W as the likely side to avoid defeat despite being away from home.

Looking at overall 2026 form, Changnyeong W have played 8 league matches with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses. Their form string “LLDWWLLL” underlines their inconsistency: two wins were followed by three straight defeats. They have scored 7 goals (0.9 per game) and conceded 13 (1.6 per game). At home they have been particularly vulnerable: 2 matches, 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, with just 1 goal scored and 5 conceded (2.5 per game against). They have failed to score in 1 of those 2 home games and have yet to keep a clean sheet at home.

Gyeongju W have played 9 league games in 2026, with 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses (“LLDDLLLLW”). The headline numbers look poor, but their attack and defensive metrics are quite similar to Changnyeong’s: 7 goals scored (0.8 per game) and 14 conceded (1.6 per game). Away from home they are slightly more competitive: 4 away matches, 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses, with 5 goals scored (1.3 per game) and 6 conceded (1.5 per game). They have yet to keep a clean sheet anywhere, but their away scoring rate is clearly better than Changnyeong’s home rate.

Recent form comparison in the prediction model’s “last five” metric gives Changnyeong W a 40% form rating versus 20% for Gyeongju W, but the deeper comparison module still rates the visitors higher overall: total strength 61.7% for Gyeongju W against 38.3% for Changnyeong W. Attacking comparison is 60% vs 40% in favour of the hosts, but defensive quality is marginally better for Gyeongju W (53% vs 47%), and the Poisson-based win-probability distribution is heavily skewed towards the away side at 78% vs 22%. That statistical edge is reflected in the main prediction.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data, strictly in WK-League only, is very clear. The indexed list of recent fixtures is:

  • 2026-04-18 (WK-League, at Gyeongju): Gyeongju W 1–1 Changnyeong W – a balanced draw with both sides scoring once.
  • 2025-09-18 (WK-League, at Changnyeong, Changning Sports Park): Changnyeong W 1–1 Gyeongju W – another draw, again with one goal each.
  • 2025-06-23 (WK-League, at Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial): Gyeongju W 3–0 Changnyeong W – clear home win for Gyeongju.
  • 2025-05-12 (WK-League, at Changning Sports Park): Changnyeong W 1–3 Gyeongju W – away win for Gyeongju.
  • 2025-04-10 (WK-League, at Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial): Gyeongju W 5–0 Changnyeong W – emphatic home win.
  • 2024-09-12 (WK-League, at Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial): Gyeongju W 5–0 Changnyeong W – another heavy home victory.
  • 2024-07-05 (WK-League, at Changning Sports Park): Changnyeong W 1–2 Gyeongju W – away win for Gyeongju.
  • 2024-05-20 (WK-League, at Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial): Gyeongju W 2–0 Changnyeong W – comfortable home win.
  • 2024-04-13 (WK-League, at Changning Sports Park): Changnyeong W 0–1 Gyeongju W – narrow away win.
  • 2023-06-16 (WK-League, at Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial): Gyeongju W 3–0 Changnyeong W – another clean-sheet win for Gyeongju.

These meetings show that while the most recent two fixtures (April 2026 and September 2025) ended 1–1, Gyeongju W have repeatedly managed to win both home and away, often by multi-goal margins. The prediction model’s H2H comparison strongly favours Gyeongju W (85% vs 15%), and the goals share is 81% vs 19% in their favour, confirming a long-running matchup advantage.

From a betting perspective, the official prediction assigns win probabilities of 10% for Changnyeong W, 45% for a draw and 45% for Gyeongju W. The recommended advice is explicitly: “Double chance : draw or Gyeongju W”, backed by the “win or draw” tag on Gyeongju as the predicted winner side. With both teams averaging under 1 goal scored per game and conceding at similar rates, another tight, low-scoring contest is likely, but the combination of Gyeongju’s superior away scoring, long-term H2H dominance, and model comparison edge supports siding against the home win.

Prediction: the most data-aligned approach is to follow the official advice and back Gyeongju W on the double chance (draw or away). A 1–1 or narrow Gyeongju W win fits the statistical profile, but from a betting angle the safer, model-backed position is simply to oppose Changnyeong W in the 1X2 market via the draw-or-away selection.

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