The Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica hosts a clash of contrasting trajectories in the UEFA Champions League league stage. Benfica come into Round 8 languishing down in 29th place with just 6 points from 7 games and a negative goal difference (-4). Real Madrid, by contrast, sit 3rd with 15 points, 19 goals scored and a +11 goal difference, firmly on course for the play-offs. Benfica’s league-stage form (LWWLL) has been inconsistent, while Madrid’s WLWLW pattern still reflects a side that usually finds a way to win, especially with their firepower.
Benfica’s season numbers underline the challenge. Across the campaign they average only 1.0 goals per game (11 in 11), and have failed to score in 5 of those fixtures. At home in this Champions League league stage they have lost 2 of 3, conceding 4 and scoring 4. Real Madrid, meanwhile, are prolific: 19 goals in 7 league-stage matches (2.7 per game), including 9 in just 3 away outings (3.0 per game). Their away record of 2 wins from 3 further emphasizes the visitors’ edge.
Team news heavily tilts the balance. Benfica are hit by a major injury list: A. Bah, N. Felix, S. Lopes Cabral, D. Lukebakio, R. Rios and J. Veloso are all ruled out, with H. Araujo doubtful through a muscle injury. That’s a significant depletion of depth and rotation options for a side already struggling for consistency and goals. The hosts may have to lean on defensive solidity – they do have 6 clean sheets across all Champions League fixtures – but a reduced attacking bench makes chasing the game far more complicated if they fall behind.
Real Madrid are not without issues, particularly in defense. T. Alexander-Arnold, Eder Militao, F. Mendy and A. Rudiger are all missing, stripping the visitors of three first-choice defenders and a key full-back. That could disrupt their back line and force tactical tweaks, possibly exposing space for Benfica’s counters. However, Madrid’s overall defensive record in the competition – 8 goals conceded in 7 games (1.1 per match) – remains respectable, and their ability to control possession and territory can help protect a patched-up defense.
The decisive factor is likely to be Kylian Mbappé. The French forward is the competition’s standout performer so far: 11 goals in just 6 appearances, averaging nearly two per game, with 28 shots and 20 on target. He has also converted all 3 of his penalties. Against a Benfica side that concedes an average of 0.9 goals per game but struggles badly at the other end, Mbappé’s pace and movement could repeatedly stretch the hosts, especially if they are forced to open up.
Tactically, both sides are comfortable in a 4-2-3-1, but Madrid’s flexibility in also using 4-3-3 and 4-1-4-1 gives them more in-game options. Benfica’s longest streak this campaign includes 4 straight defeats, highlighting how quickly things can unravel if they concede first. Discipline could also matter late on: Benfica pick up a high proportion of yellow cards between 61–90 minutes, precisely when Madrid often turn the screw.
Verdict: With Benfica depleted and misfiring, and Real Madrid boasting the competition’s most lethal forward, the visitors are strong favourites to control the game and take all three points.
