Benfica vs Real Madrid is set for Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisbon on 28 January 2026, with D. Massa in charge. In the league stage standings, Benfica sit 29th with 6 points and a negative goal difference, while Real Madrid are 3rd on 15 points and already in a promotion position. The standings and season stats suggest a clear gap in level and consistency between the two sides.
Benfica’s recent Champions League form of “LWWLL” shows inconsistency, and they have lost 5 of 7 in the standings data, with only 6 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they are more competitive (4 scored, 4 conceded in 3 games), and season stats back that up: 1.4 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded on average at home, plus 3 home clean sheets in 5. However, their attacking resources are stretched: several players are ruled out, including D. Lukebakio and others, with H. Araujo questionable. Their main creative reference in Europe, F. Aursnes (1 goal, 3 assists), is fit, but the number of absences suggests reduced depth and threat against elite opposition.
Real Madrid arrive with far stronger momentum. Their standings form line “WLWLW” and 19 goals scored in 7 matches underline an explosive attack, further confirmed by season stats: 3.0 goals scored on average away and only 1.3 conceded. Kylian Mbappé is the competition’s top scorer with 11 goals in 6 appearances and is not listed as injured, while Vinícius Júnior (4 assists) and Arda Güler (3 assists) provide additional creativity. The downside is a heavily depleted defence: T. Alexander-Arnold, Eder Militao, F. Mendy and A. Rudiger are all out, which weakens their back line and makes a clean sheet in Lisbon less likely.
The statistics suggest an open, attacking game tilted towards the visitors. Real Madrid’s prolific away scoring, combined with Benfica’s solid but undermanned side, points to Madrid outgunning the hosts. Prediction: Benfica 1–3 Real Madrid. We expect Madrid’s offensive power, led by Mbappé and supported by multiple creators, to overcome their defensive injuries, while Benfica’s home scoring average should still be enough to find a goal but not a result.
