Match context
Benfica host Real Madrid at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisbon in a UEFA Champions League league-stage clash on 28 January 2026 (20:00 UTC). Benfica come in 29th in the overall table with 6 points and a -4 goal difference, while Real Madrid sit 3rd with 15 points and a +11 differential, already in promotion territory.
Squad analysis: Benfica
Benfica’s European campaign has been inconsistent. In the league-stage table they have 2 wins and 5 defeats from 7 games, with 6 goals scored and 10 conceded. Across the wider Champions League season they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in 11 fixtures, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their average of 1.0 goals for per match and 0.9 against underlines a team that tends to be involved in tight, low-scoring contests.
At home in Europe, Benfica have 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 4, for an average of 1.4 goals for and 0.8 against per home match. Defensively they are solid: 6 clean sheets in 11 games show their ability to shut opponents out. However, they have failed to score in 5 of those 11 fixtures, highlighting attacking inconsistency.
Creatively, Fredrik Aursnes is a key figure. The midfielder has 1 goal and 3 assists in this Champions League season, with 438 passes and 17 key passes, indicating that a significant portion of Benfica’s chance creation runs through him. Discipline could be an issue late in games: 7 of their yellow cards (36.84%) and their only red card have arrived in the 61–75 minute window, suggesting vulnerability as intensity rises.
Injuries are a major concern. A. Bah, N. Felix, S. Lopes Cabral, D. Lukebakio, R. Rios and J. Veloso are all ruled out, while H. Araujo is questionable. With six confirmed absences, depth across defense, midfield and attack is weakened, increasing the load on regular starters.
Squad analysis: Real Madrid
Real Madrid arrive as one of the competition’s most potent attacks. They have 5 wins and 2 losses from 7 Champions League fixtures, scoring 19 and conceding 8. That equates to 2.7 goals per game and 1.1 against. Away from home, they have 2 wins and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded, an impressive 3.0 goals per away game.
Their biggest home win of 6-1 and away win of 5-0 underline their capacity to overwhelm opponents. Despite only 2 clean sheets in 7 matches, they have failed to score just once, showing that their attacking output almost always turns up. They also boast a 100% penalty record this season, scoring all 3 spot-kicks.
Individually, Kylian Mbappé is the standout. He has 11 goals in just 6 appearances, averaging 1.83 goals per game, from 28 shots (20 on target). His 22 key passes and 25 dribble attempts (12 successful) show he is not only a finisher but also a creator. Vinícius Júnior adds 1 goal and 4 assists in 7 appearances, with 206 passes and 16 key passes, while Arda Güler has 3 assists and 18 key passes in 7 games.
Defensively, Real Madrid are stretched. T. Alexander-Arnold, Éder Militão, Ferland Mendy and Antonio Rüdiger are all missing, removing four high-level defensive options and forcing reshuffles in both full-back and centre-back positions.
Key matchups & tactical trends
Battle 1 – Mbappé vs Benfica’s defensive record
Mbappé’s 11 goals face a Benfica side that has conceded only 10 in 11 Champions League matches, at 0.9 per game, with 6 clean sheets. Benfica’s defensive minute profile shows most goals conceded between 61–90 minutes (5 of 10, or 55.55%), while Madrid score heavily between 16–30 minutes (7 of 19, 36.89%) and 46–60 plus 76–90 (8 of 19, 44.44%). Early and late phases will be crucial as Mbappé tests Benfica’s concentration.
Battle 2 – Benfica’s controlled games vs Madrid’s firepower
Benfica’s matches are typically low scoring: all 11 have finished under 2.5 goals according to their under/over record (0 “over 2.5”, 11 “under 2.5). Real Madrid, by contrast, have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of 7 matches and over 3.5 goals also 3 times, reflecting a more open style. Benfica’s 6 clean sheets and 5 games without scoring contrast with Madrid’s 2 clean sheets and just 1 blank. The clash is essentially Benfica’s control and risk-averse profile against Madrid’s higher-variance attacking approach.
Battle 3 – Creative hubs and discipline
Aursnes, with 3 assists and 17 key passes, will try to unlock a Real Madrid defense missing four senior defenders. On the other side, Vinícius Júnior (4 assists, 16 key passes) and Arda Güler (3 assists, 18 key passes) will probe a Benfica side that accumulates 19 yellow cards predominantly after the 31st minute (16 of 19, 84.21%). Real Madrid’s own discipline is similar, with 14 yellow cards concentrated between 31–90+ minutes and one red card for Dani Carvajal, indicating that both teams can become increasingly aggressive as the game wears on.
Verdict
The numbers give Real Madrid a clear attacking edge with 19 goals in 7 games against Benfica’s 11 in 11. Defensively, Benfica’s 6 clean sheets and 0.9 goals against per match look stronger than Madrid’s 2 clean sheets and 1.1 conceded, but Madrid’s depleted back line versus Benfica’s injury-hit squad makes squad depth a key hidden factor.
