Aston Villa's Bold Move: Nicolas Jackson Joins as Record Signing
Aston Villa have ripped up their forward line and started again.
Nicolas Jackson is in. Ollie Watkins is heading out.
Villa have completed a deal worth up to £65m for Jackson, who arrives from Chelsea as the club’s new record signing, overtaking Johan Manzambi. At the same time, Watkins looks set to join Al-Hilal in the Saudi Pro League, bringing an end to a six-year spell that has defined Villa’s modern rise.
Emery’s rebuild, and a brutal reminder
Unai Emery’s squad is almost unrecognisable from the one that surged into Europe. Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne have already gone. Jackson joins a wave of arrivals that includes Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki and Matteo Ruggeri.
The scale of that upheaval showed on the opening weekend. Villa were hammered 4-0 at Brighton, a performance that screamed “transition” more than “title push”.
With Watkins unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Emery had no recognised centre-forward. Emiliano Buendia was forced to lead the line. Villa looked blunt, short of a focal point, and badly in need of exactly the kind of striker they have just bought.
Now Emery has one. And not just any one.
Not a Watkins clone
On paper, Jackson arrives as the man to take Watkins’ shirt. In reality, he offers something very different.
Watkins’ numbers at Villa are etched into the club’s recent history: 108 goals in 278 games, relentless running, and a constant presence through one of the most successful periods the club has enjoyed in decades.
Jackson, 25, brings a contrasting profile.
Last season at Bayern Munich, the Senegal international scored 11 goals and added three assists in 1,320 minutes across all competitions. That works out at 1.0 goal involvement per 90 minutes. Watkins, by comparison, posted 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes for Villa, an average of 0.6 per 90.
Jackson shot more often and from more dangerous positions. He averaged 3.8 shots per 90 to Watkins’ 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target compared with 1.2. His expected goals (xG) figure came in at 0.7 per 90, while Watkins’ was 0.5. In the box, Jackson lived where defenders hate strikers to live: 8.5 touches in the opposition area per 90, versus 5.6 for Watkins.
That habit of constantly arriving in scoring zones is not new. Since January 2020, among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes, only Erling Haaland has posted a higher non-penalty xG per 90 than Jackson’s 0.55.
Getting into the right spots is not the issue. What happens next has been.
The finishing question
Jackson’s finishing at Chelsea came under heavy scrutiny. The numbers back up why.
In 2023-24 he scored 14 Premier League goals from 18.7 xG. The following campaign he managed 10 from 12.3 xG. Across his time in England, he has converted 18 of 61 big chances.
Watkins has not been ruthless with big chances either – 24 scored from 73 since joining Villa in 2020 – but he built a reputation for reliability over time.
Look closely at last season, though, and the gap between the two in pure finishing terms almost disappears. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances. Watkins finished 18.9% of his shots and 43.2% of his big chances.
There is a crucial difference. Volume.
Watkins started 43 matches and played almost three times as many minutes. Jackson started only 15 of his 34 appearances, with Opta noting that such a substitute-heavy sample can inflate per-90 figures. Over a full season as a nailed-on starter, the shine on those numbers may dull.
That is the gamble. But Villa know exactly what they are buying.
Pressing, power and profile
The change is not just about goals. It is about how the number nine behaves when Villa do not have the ball.
Jackson averaged 34 high pressures per 90 last season, edging Watkins’ 31.4. More telling is what happened after the press: Jackson won the ball 2.7 times per 90, compared with Watkins’ 1.8, and regained possession in the final third 0.9 times per 90 to 0.6.
Among Opta’s striker sample, Jackson sat in the 88th percentile for possession won in the attacking third. Watkins was in the 43rd. That is a stark difference in how aggressively and effectively they hunt the ball high up the pitch.
Their movement in behind is similar – Jackson averaged 13 runs per 90, Watkins 12.7 – though Watkins made slightly more runs that ended inside the penalty area. Aerially, the Englishman still holds the edge, winning 1.2 aerial duels per 90 to Jackson’s 0.7, and he carried the ball more directly towards goal.
So Villa are not replacing Watkins with a carbon copy. They are trading some aerial presence and established reliability for a younger forward who presses harder, touches the ball more, and creates more shooting opportunities – both for himself and for others.
Emery’s calculation
Watkins has been Villa’s constant: a 30-year-old forward who runs, stretches, links and scores. He has been the face of their climb into Europe and, most recently, their Europa League triumph.
Jackson arrives five years younger, with a different engine and a different data profile. He gets more touches, dribbles more often, and in limited minutes last season produced shots and high-quality chances at an eye-catching rate.
The questions are obvious. Can those per-90 numbers survive a full Premier League workload? Will the finishing issues that dogged him at Chelsea resurface when the pressure tightens and the games pile up?
Emery is betting that they will not. Or at least that he can bend the numbers in Jackson’s favour.
This is not a blind swing. Emery has coached Jackson before and knows the traits he wants to sharpen. Villa are not taking a punt on an unknown quantity; they are backing a 25-year-old whose underlying metrics hint at significant upside, to replace a 30-year-old who has likely already hit his peak.
If Jackson settles and Watkins completes his move to Al-Hilal, Villa will not simply have changed their centre-forward.
They will have changed what it means to wear the number nine at Aston Villa.
