Match context
Arsenal host Kairat Almaty at Emirates Stadium in London in UEFA Champions League League Stage – Round 8 on 28 January 2026 (20:00 UTC). The numbers frame a top‑versus‑bottom clash: Arsenal sit 1st with 21 points from 7 games, while Kairat are 36th with just 1 point.
Squad Analysis: Arsenal
Arsenal arrive in perfect European form, with 7 wins from 7 fixtures and a goal difference of +18 (20 scored, 2 conceded). At home they have taken 9 points from 3 games, scoring 9 and conceding only 1, an average of 3.0 goals for and 0.3 against per home match. Defensively, they have kept 5 clean sheets in 7, and have never conceded more than 1 in any game.
The main attacking reference is Gabriel Martinelli, who has 5 goals and 1 assist in 6 appearances. His 9 shots and 5 on target show efficiency, while 8 key passes underline his dual threat. Arsenal’s scoring profile is strong late on: 6 of their 20 goals (30.00%) arrive between minutes 61–75 and another 4 (20.00%) between 76–90, suggesting sustained pressure.
There are, however, significant absences. Declan Rice (0 goals, 2 assists, 243 passes and 15 key passes in the competition) and Mikel Merino (2 goals, 209 passes, 9 key passes) both miss out due to yellow-card suspensions, weakening Arsenal’s usual control in central midfield. At the back, W. Saliba and J. Timber are listed as inactive, with R. Calafiori questionable through a muscle injury, potentially reducing depth in the defensive line.
Squad Analysis: Kairat Almaty
Kairat’s Champions League campaign has been difficult. In the league standings they have 1 point from 7 games, with 5 goals scored and 19 conceded, a goal difference of –14. Away from home in this phase they have lost all 3 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Over a broader 15‑match sample, they average just 0.9 goals for per game (14 total) and 1.5 against (23 conceded).
Despite the struggles, there are some defensive and midfield pillars. Defender A. Mrynskiy has 884 minutes, 23 tackles, 9 interceptions and 241 passes with 12 key passes, pointing to a proactive back‑line presence. Midfielder O. Arad combines work rate and distribution with 23 tackles, 8 interceptions and 283 passes, plus 1 goal. Kairat have managed 6 clean sheets in 15 matches overall, though only 1 away, indicating they can be solid but rarely are on their travels.
Kairat are also hit by absences. D. Satpaev, who has 1 goal and 6 yellow cards in 635 minutes, is missing as “Inactive”, removing an aggressive midfield presence who committed 11 fouls and took 9 shots. Several other squad members (including S. Askarov, J. Oksanen and A. Tuyakbaev) are also unavailable, trimming rotation options.
Key Matchups & Tactical Trends
- Gabriel Martinelli vs Kairat’s defensive block
Martinelli’s 5 goals in 305 minutes equate to a strike roughly every 61 minutes. He faces a Kairat side conceding 1.9 goals per away game in this competition (9 in 3) and 1.5 per match across 15 fixtures (23 total). Arsenal average 2.9 goals per Champions League match; Kairat’s under‑over profile shows they have allowed at least one goal in 9 of 15 games (over 0.5 in 9, under in 6). With Arsenal scoring in every match so far and never failing to score, Martinelli’s movement and 19 dribble attempts (9 successful) will severely test Mrynskiy and the back line. - Arsenal attack vs Kairat’s vulnerable second half
Arsenal’s most productive windows are 46–60 (4 goals) and 61–75 (6 goals), combining for 10 of their 20 goals (50.00%). Kairat’s most fragile phase is also 61–75, when they concede 10 of their 23 goals (43.48%). This statistical overlap suggests that if Kairat can resist early, the real battle comes after the interval, when Arsenal’s intensity historically spikes and Kairat’s defensive concentration drops. - Discipline and midfield control
Arsenal’s yellow-card distribution is back‑loaded, with 6 of their cautions (35.29%) between 61–75 and 4 (23.53%) between 76–90, reflecting aggressive game management when protecting leads. Kairat’s discipline is more volatile: their yellow cards peak in added time (91–105) with 10 bookings (25.64%), and they also own 1 red card via G. Zaria. With Rice and Merino suspended, Arsenal lose 6 combined yellow cards’ worth of controlled aggression but may gain mobility in midfield. Kairat, missing Satpaev’s 6 yellows, still field a combative core in V. Gromyko, Jorginho, D. Glazer and Arad, who collectively have 14 yellow cards, indicating a high likelihood of fouls around the box against Arsenal’s dribblers.
Verdict
The data points heavily toward Arsenal’s superiority in both attack and defense: 20 goals for and just 2 against, plus 5 clean sheets, versus Kairat’s 5 scored and 19 conceded in this phase. Even with key midfield absences, Arsenal’s scoring rate and second‑half strength give them a clear statistical edge, while Kairat must rely on discipline and defensive resilience to stay competitive.
